Prior Elias Drafts

[RZNJ]

2019 Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz

2020 Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo

2021 Cowser, Norby

2022 Holliday, Beavers

2023 Too soon to say

I feel like we killed it in 2019 and 2020 and have only been ok since.  Of course, it looks like we made the right choice in 2022 at 1:1.

2019 clearly looks like 3 solid or better regulars.

2020 certainly has a decent chance of doing the same.

It’s hard to argue about 2019 not being the best draft with 2020 second.   I guess Holliday would put 2022 over 2021 but of course that picking 1 overall compared to 5th.

I think it’s fair to say that our draft classes in 2021 and 2022 lack depth.   I think we need to do better.

 

Thoughts?

[clapdiddy]

The draft, by and large, is a crap shoot.  Out of the draft picks you listed, all have either already made it or will soon be playing in the majors.  That's pretty rare.

Think of all the #1 or #2 picks that never make it to the majors.

[Sports Guy]

Stop drafting so many college OFers with middling tools.

 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

The draft, by and large, is a crap shoot.  Out of the draft picks you listed, all have either already made it or will soon be playing in the majors.  That's pretty rare.

Think of all the #1 or #2 picks that never make it to the majors.

It’s not totally random.  The more good guesses you make, the better your chances.  Some teams are better at it than others.  It’s not total luck.

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Stop drafting so many college OFers with middling tools.

 

Fair point.  Stowers, Watson, Ortiz, Trimble, Rhodes, Donta Williams, Haskin, Servideo, Fabian, Wagner, Ardoin,  are all college position players taken in rounds 2-4.   Maybe Stowers and Fabian carve out a part time role as ML players.   We’ve done well at the top of the draft with this demographic but Ortiz is the only college position player after round that looks like starting material.  The two best of this group, Ortiz and Stowers were taken back in 2019.   We haven’t done so well since then.

The 2023 draft will be interesting to follow.  Horvath is a power guy off to a bad start.  They went with more pitching with Baumeister and Lord and went with a bunch of guys who could play CF.

Edited May 29 by RZNJ

[clapdiddy]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s not totally random.  The more good guesses you make, the better your chances.  Some teams are better at it than others.  It’s not total luck.

Didn't mean to imply it's total luck.  I'm just saying that they've been fortunate to pick good players and not have issues with injuries or lack of performance.   Look at recent picks like Torkelson, Henry Davis, Moniak...guys selected #1 who haven't provided any type of impact.  

They've done a nice job identifying talent and developing it...no doubt.   But, a guy like Bradfield could be a miss.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

Didn't mean to imply it's total luck.  I'm just saying that they've been fortunate to pick good players and not have issues with injuries or lack of performance.   Look at recent picks like Torkelson, Henry Davis, Moniak...guys selected #1 who haven't provided any type of impact.  

They've done a nice job identifying talent and developing it...no doubt.   But, a guy like Bradfield could be a miss.  

They’ve done a good job overall, especially in the first round.  I’ve gone back and forth on Bradfield but I definitely don’t think he’s a miss.  He’s going to be a ML player, I think.   I’m just not sure if it’s a ML regular or not.  I still like that pick.  It’s really too soon to make much of a judgment on the 2023 class.   It could look a lot different come August.

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s not totally random.  The more good guesses you make, the better your chances.  Some teams are better at it than others.  It’s not total luck.

And some of it is development.  I think it's mostly on the player but I'm sure you have guys that would have succeeded if they had ended up somewhere else.

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

They’ve done a good job overall, especially in the first round.  I’ve gone back and forth on Bradfield but I definitely don’t think he’s a miss.  He’s going to be a ML player, I think.   I’m just not sure if it’s a ML regular or not.  I still like that pick.  It’s really too soon to make much of a judgment on the 2023 class.   It could look a lot different come August.

I am pulling for Bradfield, too.   His defense and speed could make him valuable as a .250 hitter.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And some of it is development.  I think it's mostly on the player but I'm sure you have guys that would have succeeded if they had ended up somewhere else.

I don’t know how to answer that.  It’s unknowable.   The Orioles get a lot of compliments from the outside, including Keith Law, about their hitting development.    

[Just Regular]

We're still in the early days of seeing how prospect hoarding vs. supporting the Adley teams will play out.

Dallas Keuchel had to shame the front office from the clubhouse in 2017 and fortunately for Jeff Luhnow there was then the safety net of the waiver trading period and somehow the other competitors let Justin Verlander make it to Houston.

Prominent MLBPA member Corbin Burnes might speak with a lot of candor, and Elias has no safety net.    People will be bummed if opponents get to attack fungible pitchers this fall.    The Braves and the Phillies, and the Astros of recent vintage, make every RP count.       Burnes, Bradish and Grayson aren't going to throw 100% quality starts, and even if they do some of those games will be at risk.

Sig Mejdal might think a primary driver of what makes Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo good is the Orioles training.

With Westburg's development, it's entertaining to remember he was on draft night a little bit of a consolation prize when those clever Rays sniped Nick Bitsko.

Edited May 30 by Just Regular

[dcterp]

On 5/29/2024 at 1:04 PM, RZNJ said:

2019 Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Ortiz, Hernaiz

2020 Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo

2021 Cowser, Norby

2022 Holliday, Beavers

You might want to add Zach Showalter to the 2022 list.  Part of the Flaherty trade last year, Cards fans seem pretty pleased with him.

 

 

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, dcterp said:

You might want to add Zach Showalter to the 2022 list.  Part of the Flaherty trade last year, Cards fans seem pretty pleased with him.

 

 

 

I don’t think so.  Nice stats in low A but I’m not buying any Zach Showalter stock until I see it play in AA.

[Frobby]

I only saw this thread today .  My thoughts can be found in this post in a similar thread Tony started on the main board a couple of days ago.   In sum, it’s really early to try to judge these drafts.