Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Rbiggs2525]

Yeah I’m changing my tune again. He scares the crap out of me. He actually reminds be of Britton a bit delivery wise. The injury risk is too much to ignore. I’m starting my package with Kjerstad or Cowser. 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Yeah I’m changing my tune again. He scares the crap out of me. He actually reminds be of Britton a bit delivery wise. The injury risk is too much to ignore. I’m starting my package with Kjerstad or Cowser. 

So you are saying you really don’t want him. 

[Bemorewins]

6 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

I don’t think they need an ace they just need a solid number 3 starter to fill in at game 3 and push Kremer or Suarez to number 4.  This whole idea that you need 3 TOR guys to make a deep run just is not true.  Last year the Rangers won the championship with a rotation of Montgomery, Evoldi, Heaney and Scherzer.  That is probably 3-3’s and a 4 starter last year going into the playoffs.  Evoldi was a high 3 era guy the last few seasons.  Montgomery is mid 3 era guy who doesn’t walk guys but also a contact pitcher and not many strikeouts.  Heaney is a mid 4 ERA guy that is back of rotation type and probably worse than Kremer numbers wise.  Scherzer has top of rotation pedigree but he had injury questions going into playoff only throwing 14 innings in September going into the playoffs and missed most of playoffs.  Everyone here was excited when we drew them because of no top starters and shaky bullpen.  

The Diamondbacks rotation had a solid number 1/2 type guy in Gallen.  Then Merrill Kelly a 34 year old middle rotation guy that that was late bloomer but was solid last few years.  There 3rd starter was Brandon Pfaadt a young pitcher with a high 5 ERA lastseason.  There 4th starter was just an opener who had mid 4 ERA on the year.  
 

You give me Burns, GRod, a solid number 3, and Kremer or Suarez I like our chances.  There is a few number 3 guys that would fit well and not cost a lot.  I like Bassitt,  Fredde, Scherzer, Severino, and Talion.  Those guys are rentals or 1 more year of control after this.  I think it best to find someone for this season first and if you get an extra year great but not a necessarily needed.  Then this offseason with new ownership we can’t determine the next step.  How much money will they spend will be key and then either free agency or a trade.  Last off season we got Burns a TOR for a blocked infield prospect and a fringe starter/bullpen guy.  Let’s see what we can do this offseason. 

IMO - The Rangers and Diamondbacks were “lucky” underdogs who overcame the odds last season.

When you amass this much talent and undertake the steps it took to get here (extreme tanking which is now not allowed in baseball), the goal shouldn’t be to overcome the odds as an underdog in one October. IMO the goal should be a lot higher than that.

Another Skubal type pitcher keeps the odds in our favor regardless of opponent. The Yankees will make a move. And right now (when healthy) the Phillies are better/more talented.

To be honest I struggle to find an opponent where we will go into a series with the better pitching matchups (beyond Burnes). 

Again, when you have the type of Major League talent and Minor League assets that we posses, the goal shouldn’t be to overcome the odds as an underdog. We should be trying to do what we can to tilt the odds in our favor. This may be our only season with Burnes, this this may be our best team.

It’s not a sustainable strategy to acquire one year rentals (even as good as Burnes) most seasons. IMO you can’t continue to thrive doing 6 (years) for a (year) swaps.

[sportsfan8703]

Sell me on why Tarik Skubal is so much better than Erick Fedde. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

This won’t happen. 

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sell me on why Tarik Skubal is so much better than Erick Fedde. 

 

I’m sure this has some hint of sarcasm to it. Because the answer to this question seems rather obvious.

1) Look at the age of the two pitchers. (27 v 31)

2) Fedde has NEVER been good before this year. 

3) Look at Skubal’s Ks, Ks per nine, ERA not just this season but last year. It’s absolutely elite.

4) Fedde is a pitch to contact kind of guy, even in this his lone good season. Does that strategy really work/could it dominate in the postseason when you are facing the elite of the elite? Maybe against a team like SEA? But against NY, HOU, PHIL, LAD? Probably not.

5) We need a pitcher who is good enough to be successful over the course of multiple rounds, not just the opening round/one particular matchup.

6) Look at the difference in stuff.

7) Skubal is left handed. That has an advantage when pitching in parks like Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium.

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sell me on why Tarik Skubal is so much better than Erick Fedde. 

 

Look at their respective Statcasts and tell me what you see. 

[sportsfan8703]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Look at their respective Statcasts and tell me what you see. 

I have and I’ve seen highlights. I don’t watch a lot of non AL East baseball. Outside of having a prop bet on Skubal to win the CYA. Just wondering what people thought. Not just trying to get a response to criticize. 

Plus, do we really know that Fedde is even cheaper than Skubal?  Their GM has demanded a lot before.

@Moose Milligan do you think Skubal is that much better than Fedde for just the rest of this season?  So that way we take out the extra year of club control.  

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m sure this has some hint of sarcasm to it. Because the answer to this question seems rather obvious.

1) Look at the age of the two pitchers. (27 v 31)

2) Fedde has NEVER been good before this year. 

3) Look at Skubal’s Ks, Ks per nine, ERA not just this season but last year. It’s absolutely elite.

4) Fedde is a pitch to contact kind of guy, even in this his lone good season. Does that strategy really work/could it dominate in the postseason when you are facing the elite of the elite? Maybe against a team like SEA? But against NY, HOU, PHIL, LAD? Probably not.

5) We need a pitcher who is good enough to be successful over the course of multiple rounds, not just the opening round/one particular matchup.

6) Look at the difference in stuff.

7) Skubal is left handed. That has an advantage when pitching in parks like Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium.

Nah no sarcasm.  How about just for this year thoughts?  So you can throw age and control out the window. Fedde reminds me a lot of Bradish. Just without the extra 2-3 mph on the 4FB. 

I agree with the point that Fedde is probably more of a regular season option and ALDS type SP while Skubal would give us a huge advantage every round against the elite of the elite. 

Skubal seems a lot like what the Mariners hoped to have bought in Bedard all those years ago. 

Edited July 17 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nah no sarcasm.  How about just for this year thoughts?  So you can throw age and control out the window. Fedde reminds me a lot of Bradish. Just without the extra 2-3 mph on the 4FB. 

I agree with the point that Fedde is probably more of a regular season option and ALDS type SP while Skubal would give us a huge advantage every round against the elite of the elite. 

Skubal seems a lot like what the Mariners hoped to have bought in Bedard all those years ago. 

The 2008 Mariners lost over 100 games.  I don't care how Bedard pitched, he wasn't going to fix that.

He wasn't a piece to put them over the top because they weren't close enough to the top to begin with.

[Sports Guy]

This really is an interesting rumor when you think about it.

If it’s true (and that’s a big if), it’s a potential shift in thought. (Or at least what we think is a shift in thought based on info we have heard)

The Os have been against trading any of their top 3 guys and have had Kjerstad, Cowser and Westburg off the table in previous trade discussions, again per reports.

Well, Elias isn’t stupid..he knows at least one of those guys has to be in this trade, so for him to make a call and show interest (again if this is true), tells us there is at least some level of player where he’s willing to trade one of these guys.

We have heard and seen that he either won’t trade any of them and that he wants to trade for that middle of the pack prospect group. You can get a lot for those guys and you may even get some difference makers for them (especially rentals) but it will be tough to get very good to elite players that are more than rentals with these guys.

 

[Moose Milligan]

49 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I have and I’ve seen highlights. I don’t watch a lot of non AL East baseball. Outside of having a prop bet on Skubal to win the CYA. Just wondering what people thought. Not just trying to get a response to criticize. 

Plus, do we really know that Fedde is even cheaper than Skubal?  Their GM has demanded a lot before.

@Moose Milligan do you think Skubal is that much better than Fedde for just the rest of this season?  So that way we take out the extra year of club control.  

Skubal is one of the best pitchers in the game. Fedde, I think, is a decent pitcher but having what appears to be a fluke season.  
 

In regard to the White Sox GM, he can demand all he wants but everyone knows they are sellers. That began when they traded Cease right before the season started. 

That said, I think it’s more likely we end up with Fedde or someone like him rather than Skubal. 

[maybenxtyr]

Last night was the first time I've seen him pitch.  He looked great. We can analyze his delivery and such, but still some point we (the fans) have to accept that this team doesn't have the pit hing to make a serious play off run. We also have to understand that any pitching is going to be a painful cost. There's not enough roster spots to play everyone. 

[Bemorewins]

55 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nah no sarcasm.  How about just for this year thoughts?  So you can throw age and control out the window. Fedde reminds me a lot of Bradish. Just without the extra 2-3 mph on the 4FB. 

I agree with the point that Fedde is probably more of a regular season option and ALDS type SP while Skubal would give us a huge advantage every round against the elite of the elite. 

Skubal seems a lot like what the Mariners hoped to have bought in Bedard all those years ago. 

Several thoughts of response:

1. The extra MPH on the fastball matter a lot. It can make the difference when it comes to being able to compile Ks/get balls by hitters as opposed to them making contact/doing damage.

2. I don’t think it is wise to approach the deadline from the perspective of “for this season only”. IMO next season is as important as this season. AND we are going to have even less pitching if Burnes were to get away/not be on the roster in ‘25. IMO Burnes has been the key to keeping the shop above water in the first half. If you take him away and replace him with even a league average pitcher, we are no better than a team caught in the Wild Card scrum. We have a very weak rotation minus Corbin Burnes. Thus we need insurance to buffet ourselves against him being able to leave in FA and/or having all the leverage in negotiations.

3) From here on out, IMO the stakes are simple to high to aim for “passable/bandaid” additions. We could be a multi-World Series group when all this is over (like the Astros). That changes the course and value of your franchise. I think it would be a miscalculation to set a lowered bar, when the prize of obtaining the higher bar is franchise future altering. For those who have been to HOU in the last couple of years, tell me what you see. I see a franchise that has captured the hearts and minds of its community and is king in a football crazed area. The Astros now have a very robust traveling fanbase, let alone excellent home attendance figures. I want that for the O’s. And IMO the way to get there is to go balls to the wall to win a championship(s). Look at the difference the Super Bowl wins have made for our other professional sports franchise in town.

[Rbiggs2525]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So you are saying you really don’t want him. 

No, I want him but I’m not going to be naive and send a package not including his next pitch could be his last. His value is basically Bradish with one more elbow reconstruction.