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Vance Honeycutt

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Aglets
Aglets

Thanks for taking the time to post in the minor league section of the Orioles message boards to tell us how little you care about the minor leagues.  😉 Obviously the ML club is what matters most.

Warehouse
Warehouse

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over contr

Frobby
Frobby

Nobody has said.  I’d expect either this coming Tuesday, or the following Tuesday.   Edit: Most, but not all, of the college hitters chosen ahead of Honeycutt have made their debuts in the last w

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Chromehill Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Chromehill

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think some of this is also an understanding that teams don’t value the same things they did 15+ years ago..had to be some adjusting made to the new way of things.

Hitting 220 isn’t considered a big problem anymore..even if it should be.

When the league average is .244, having a guy hit .220 who draws walks, has some power, runs well and plays good defense....you can probably live with that player in your lineup.  Sad, but true in today's baseball.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

I thought something similar. Except either comparing to a cf version of Jorge Mateo with 30hr power, or somewhere in the realm of Giancarlo Stanton if he could play defense and steal bases. He’s had a ops+ of 112, 86 and 121 the last 3 years despite striking out 30% of the time (quite a bit more than Santander). If Vance puts up 100-110 ops+ then plays elite cf defense and can steal 20+ bases, a k rate that high can still play. At least in theory. 

Of course Giancarlo Stanton was slashing .262/.356/.537/.893 with a 140 OPS+ at the MAJOR LEAUGE level at the same age as Honeycutt, so we probably have to cool the jets on that comparison. :D

Right now they have to let Honeycutt go play. They'll give him things to work on in the offseason and we'll see if he can come back next year with a good offseason and spring training under his belt and perform well in Aberdeen. If he can be playing in AA for half the season next year and hold his own he'll be on track.

 

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
Posted
On 9/3/2024 at 10:15 AM, Warehouse said:

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over control years to varying degrees.

Even when you consider effects from health/consistency, this paints a rosy picture of outcomes vs. the stats shared by Skanar.  So I might be overly optimistic here. On the other hand, college outfielders probably have better outcomes than other profiles, teams have likely improved evaluation since the early 90s, 22 is better than 21-30, and Elias may be a better evaluator than average.

 

Percentile                    

WAR/525 PAs                    

Comps

95th

5+

Brent Rooker bat, Kevin Kiermaier glove, Bobby Witt baserunning

90th

3.5-4.5

Luis Robert Jr or Byron Buxton without the injuries

75th

2.5-3.5

Jose Siri

60th

~2

Drew Stubbs

50th

1-2

Some version of Michael A. Taylor, Brett Phillips, or Keon Broxton with more power but also more Ks

40th

0-1

Sam Hilliard, Bradley Zimmer

30th

<0

Christian Pache, Daz Cameron, Arismendy Alcantera, Drew Robinson

≤ 20th

Never make majors         

Jeren Kendall

Drew Stubbs as a hitter is a great comp for Honeycutt, nice job. He'll probably be a much better CF defender though, not that Stubbs was terrible.

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OsFanInOhio Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

OsFanInOhio

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4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Of course Giancarlo Stanton was slashing .262/.356/.537/.893 with a 140 OPS+ at the MAJOR LEAUGE level at the same age as Honeycutt, so we probably have to cool the jets on that comparison. :D

Right now they have to let Honeycutt go play. They'll give him things to work on in the offseason and we'll see if he can come back next year with a good offseason and spring training under his belt and perform well in Aberdeen. If he can be playing in AA for half the season next year and hold his own he'll be on track.

 

I’m in no way saying Vance will be Stanton. More showing an example of how over a 3 or 4 year stretch (the last few years specifically) a player can be an above average offensive player even striking out at a 30% clip. If he can even be an average mlb hitter (much like folks have said about Mateo for years) then Vance will be a good big leaguer. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I'd vote no on this...

 

Gallo had some pretty good years.  Obviously he is/was a flawed player.  Still, he had seasons of 4.2, 3.1, 2.9 and 2.4 rWAR, was an all star twice, has won two Gold Gloves.  

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your expectations are wildly off on what you think a draft pick should become.

How ironic.

”Again, barring injury, I think if Bradfield only finishes the season in AA, that should be considered a disappointment.”

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How ironic.

”Again, barring injury, I think if Bradfield only finishes the season in AA, that should be considered a disappointment.”

We all need a little more slack on the minors board than the main board. 

Remember when a lot of us wanted Lawlar/Mayer over Cowser?  Or Austin Martin over Kjerstad?  Or Druw Jones over Holliday?

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We all need a little more slack on the minors board than the main board. 

Remember when a lot of us wanted Lawlar/Mayer over Cowser?  Or Austin Martin over Kjerstad?  Or Druw Jones over Holliday?

Sure do.    0-4 with 3 strikeouts last night.   Honeycutt is headed for the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick ever.   He could become an all-star and turn out to be a great pick.   But ………….

 

Let me add in a controversial possibility.   People talk about his floor being a 4th outfielder, platoon CF.    This guy might be Zach Watson II and top out at AA.  

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sure do.    0-4 with 3 strikeouts last night.   Honeycutt is headed for the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick ever.   He could become an all-star and turn out to be a great pick.   But ………….

 

Let me add in a controversial possibility.   People talk about his floor being a 4th outfielder, platoon CF.    This guy might be Zach Watson II and top out at AA.  

We writing guys off in their draft year now?

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