A look ahead to the 2025 payroll

[Sports Guy]

This season is far from over but that doesn't mean we can't walk and chew gum at the same time.

This is going to be a very interesting offseason. The Os have a lot of spots likely secured for 2025 already and yet there is plenty of uncertainty as well.

Barring a trade, these guys are definitely on the team next year:

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo*, Kjerstad, Westburg, Cowser, Urias, Eflin, GRod, Kremer, Felix, Perez, DC, Rogers and Cano.  That is 16 of your 26 man roster. The salaries for those 16 players will total around $46M, give or take.

With those 16 players, you have your entire starting IF (including C), 2 OFers, 3 or 4 starting pitchers, 4 or 5 relievers (depending on Rogers) and your key bench guy.

*Mayo potentially could start in the minors since he has looked  bad this year but its a SSS and I think they are committed to him and Im not sure going to the minors is going to be some major help for him.  But he will be on the active roster at some point next year.

The Os also have the ability to keep (meaning they are under team control...salary estimates following player) Cedric Mullins (8.5M), Mountcastle (5.5M), OHearn (8M option), G Soto (6M), Dominguez (8M option...has 500K buyout), Mateo (3.2M), Akin (2.5M) and Webb (2.2M).

For your 10 remaining roster spots, you need a back up C, 1 starting OFer, 5 pitchers and 3 other offensive players.

Some of the relievers I listed will be brought back but others likely traded. Those are cheap contracts but the O's need to add another legit high leverage arm and someone(s) will be left off because of that.

Either way, the team has plenty of money to add to this team given the low payroll of those definitely back.  Also, keep in mind Bradish will be on the payroll next year and I am assuming they will non tender Tyler Wells. Depending on his status, it is possible they bring him back but not sure I see the point.

Having so many cheap players on the roster, many of whom will be cheap for a while, gives you so much flexibility.

Also, it’s certainly possible that some of the players  I listed in the definite 16 will be traded, which will open up a spot or more.

Edit: Meant to talk about Povich and McDermott. They could enter in this equation as well. Could be trade bait, could be starters, could be relievers. Lots of moving parts.

Edit 2: Forgot to mention  Suarez, who also factors here. Would assume he’s back next year but not sure what role. You have to upgrade on this staff, so you can’t keep everyone. If we want to say he’s kept (fair assumption) than someone else had to go.

Edited 2 hours ago by Sports Guy

[HowAboutThat]

There’s going to be a lot of healthy discussion about how to spend our money. MLBTraderumors has already started. Here’s the O’Hearn paragraph from their article about picking up options( on Jimenez’ option, they said”haha no”)

[wiosfan]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This season is far from over but that doesn't mean we can't walk and chew gum at the same time.

This is going to be a very interesting offseason. The Os have a lot of spots likely secured for 2025 already and yet there is plenty of uncertainty as well.

Barring a trade, these guys are definitely on the team next year:

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo*, Kjerstad, Westburg, Cowser, Urias, Eflin, GRod, Kremer, Felix, Perez, DC, Rogers and Cano.  That is 16 of your 26 man roster. The salaries for those 16 players will total around $46M, give or take.

With those 16 players, you have your entire starting IF (including C), 2 OFers, 3 or 4 starting pitchers, 4 or 5 relievers (depending on Rogers) and your key bench guy.

*Mayo potentially could start in the minors since he has looked  bad this year but its a SSS and I think they are committed to him and Im not sure going to the minors is going to be some major help for him.  But he will be on the active roster at some point next year.

The Os also have the ability to keep (meaning they are under team control...salary estimates following player) Cedric Mullins (8.5M), Mountcastle (5.5M), OHearn (8M option), G Soto (6M), Dominguez (8M option...has 500K buyout), Mateo (3.2M), Akin (2.5M) and Webb (2.2M).

For your 10 remaining roster spots, you need a back up C, 1 starting OFer, 5 pitchers and 3 other offensive players.

Some of the relievers I listed will be brought back but others likely traded. Those are cheap contracts but the O's need to add another legit high leverage arm and someone(s) will be left off because of that.

Either way, the team has plenty of money to add to this team given the low payroll of those definitely back.  Also, keep in mind Bradish will be on the payroll next year and I am assuming they will non tender Tyler Wells. Depending on his status, it is possible they bring him back but not sure I see the point.

Having so many cheap players on the roster, many of whom will be cheap for a while, gives you so much flexibility.

Also, it’s certainly possible that some of the players  I listed in the definite 16 will be traded, which will open up a spot or more.

Edit: Meant to talk about Povich and McDermott. They could enter in this equation as well. Could be trade bait, could be starters, could be relievers. Lots of moving parts.

You suggest the entire IF is secured with those 16 players, who do you have at first? Mayo?

[Orioles0615]

Its time to upgrade at firstbase

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wiosfan said:

You suggest the entire IF is secured with those 16 players, who do you have at first? Mayo?

Yes

[OriolesMagic83]

Did you leave off Suarez intentionally or just forget about him?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Its time to upgrade at firstbase

You don’t do that without seeing Mayo and eventually Basallo first. It’s irrational to block guys that talented and that productive.

You could bring back Mounty as insurance but you do go out and go crazy for a first baseman.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Did you leave off Suarez intentionally or just forget about him?

Accident. 
 

I edited the OP.

Edited 2 hours ago by Sports Guy

[maybenxtyr]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t do that without seeing Mayo and eventually Basallo first. It’s irrational to block guys that talented and that productive.

You could bring back Mounty as insurance but you do go out and go crazy for a first baseman.

I'd keep Mountcastle and decline O'Hearn in this scenario. There's a plenty of LH bats but the RH situation has been a problem. 

 

Mountcastle can get 500 or AB's at 1B and DH throughout the year.

 

Any movement of the needle in 2025 will come from guys like Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad improving. Westburg and Henderson showed themselves pretty well this season. As a rookie Cowser has also shown that he's pretty close to an everyday player...it would be nice if he can take a step forward on cutting down his K's, even if the bat on ball goes as an out. 

 

Focus on pitching and a little steadier backup catcher, preferably one that can hit better than JM. It's not the end of the world if they brought him back though. They also need to come up with a useful RH outfielder somehow. 

[mrbig1]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t do that without seeing Mayo and eventually Basallo first. It’s irrational to block guys that talented and that productive.

You could bring back Mounty as insurance but you do go out and go crazy for a first baseman.

Thank you. Yes, we need Mounty at first.

[Sports Guy]

The Mountcastle question rely depends on Mayo and your plan for him.  Is he a first baseman?  Is he a first base/RFer/DH?  If he’s not a RFer, I don’t see how you bring back Mounty. While you need to be more right handed, I think Mounty being at first and what we have behind him hurts his value for the Os.

[wildcard]

My best guess for the 2025 at this point:

18m   Eflin  SP1

10m. Mullins  CF

3)   8m. Dominguez RP1

4)  8m. O’Hearn.    DH/1B

5)  7m  Mountcastle. 1B

6)  6m.  Greg Soto. RP2

7). 5m.  Adley.  C/DH

4m. Coulombe.  RP3

9) 3m.  Rogers. SP2 - option (Will compete for a rotation spot in ST)

10) 3m.  McCann. C

11) 3m. Mateo.  IF

12) 2.5m Urias.  IF

13) 2.2m. Perez.  RP4

14) 2m    Kremer.  SP3

15) 2m.    Wells.   IL

16) 2m Webb.  RP5

17) 1.6m Akin.  RP6

18) 1m.   Bautista.   RP7

19). 1m.  Suarez.  SP4.  (1M to keep him from going to the KBO)

20)  1m  Bradish.   IL

21)  1m. Bowman. RP

22)   1m Rivera

23)  760k.  Gunnar.   SS

24) 760k.  Cano.   RP8

25) 760k.  GRod.   SP5

26) 760k   Westburg.  3B

27) 760k   Cowser.  LF

28) 760k. Holliday. 2B

29) 760k. Kjerstad.  RF

30).McDermott.

31)  Mayo

32). Povich

33) Liv Soto

34) Young

35 ) Pham

97.62m Total

[LookitsPuck]

I'm bringing back:

• Offense/Defense
  • C - Adley
  • SS - Gunnar
  • 3B - Westburg
  • 2B - Holliday
  • 1B - Mountcastle
  • DH - Kjerstad
  • LF - Cowser
  • CF - Cowser/Mullins
  • RF - ?
  • Backup OF - ?
  • Backup C - ?
  • Utility - Urias
• Starting Pitchers
  • SP1: Eflin
  • SP2: Grayson
  • SP3: Acquire somebody
  • SP4: Kremer
  • SP5: Suarez
• Relievers
  • Closer: Felix
  • Setup: Cano
  • Late Relief: Webb
  • Late Relief: Coulombe
  • Late Relief: Perez
  • Middle/Long Relief: Akin
  • Reliever: ?
  • Reliever: ?
• Depth
  • SP: Povich, McDermott, Rogers
  • RP: McDermott

I'm bringing back, but not giving a spot to:

• Mayo
• Rogers

Guys I'm giving a QO offer to:

• Burnes
• Santander - I really go back and forth with Santander. He's not great in the outfield. His average and OBP is a liability. But his power is prolific. Does that age well? I don't think so. I'd extend the QO and move on.

I'm not bringing back:

• Mateo - had surgery at the end of August, could he be back in the middle of the season next year? Sure, but he's a FA after next season, and paying over $3m for a guy that might not play nor be effective isn't an adequate use of money
• Dominguez - I could be convinced to keep him if we're desperate
• Soto - was a poor acquisition not just because of the talent given up, but because he was always a situational guy with control issues
• O'Hearn - $8m for a guy that really shouldn't be in the field and can only hit righties is a lot of loot
• Santander - Give a QO, move on
• Eloy - Duh

This means we need to acquire the following:

• Starting Pitcher(s)
  • The O's can't go into next season giving Povich a spot and they definitely can not give a spot to Rogers. Rogers needs to be a deep depth arm until he showcases an increase in velocity and/or incredible promise that he can be serviceable and not a WHIP disaster who can barely go 5.
  • Targets: Snell, Burnes, Fried, Wacha, Severino, Morton, etc. 
• Reliever(s)
  • No more Phillies castoffs. No more waiver wire, dumpster diving for the entire bullpen. No more washed up vets. 
  • Targets: David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Blake Treinen, Andrew Kittredge, Tanner Scott, etc.
• Position Player(s)
  • Backup C (give more time to the backup if a better hitter so Adley can be fresh throughout year)
    • Targets: Elias Diaz, Travis d'Arnaud (although I reckon the Braves pickup his option), Jacob Stallings. I guess if they're desperate they can stick with Blake Hunt (in the minors)
  • Corner OF
    • We could always acquire a bat first OF and then put Kjerstad in the OF.
    • Targets: Tyler O'Neill, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, etc.
  • Backup OF
    • Could be Mullins if they, say, call up Beavers and sign another OF, otherwise these are a dime a dozen out there. Just get somebody that can platoon since it's a heavy LHH OF right now.

I'd entertain the O's calling up Beavers. 

[LGOrioles]

7 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm bringing back:

• Offense/Defense
  • C - Adley
  • SS - Gunnar
  • 3B - Westburg
  • 2B - Holliday
  • 1B - Mountcastle
  • DH - Kjerstad
  • LF - Cowser
  • CF - Cowser/Mullins
  • RF - ?
  • Backup OF - ?
  • Backup C - ?
  • Utility - Urias
• Starting Pitchers
  • SP1: Eflin
  • SP2: Grayson
  • SP3: Acquire somebody
  • SP4: Kremer
  • SP5: Suarez
• Relievers
  • Closer: Felix
  • Setup: Cano
  • Late Relief: Webb
  • Late Relief: Coulombe
  • Late Relief: Perez
  • Middle/Long Relief: Akin
  • Reliever: ?
  • Reliever: ?
• Depth
  • SP: Povich, McDermott, Rogers
  • RP: McDermott

I'm bringing back, but not giving a spot to:

• Mayo
• Rogers

Guys I'm giving a QO offer to:

• Burnes
• Santander - I really go back and forth with Santander. He's not great in the outfield. His average and OBP is a liability. But his power is prolific. Does that age well? I don't think so. I'd extend the QO and move on.

I'm not bringing back:

• Mateo - had surgery at the end of August, could he be back in the middle of the season next year? Sure, but he's a FA after next season, and paying over $3m for a guy that might not play nor be effective isn't an adequate use of money
• Dominguez - I could be convinced to keep him if we're desperate
• Soto - was a poor acquisition not just because of the talent given up, but because he was always a situational guy with control issues
• O'Hearn - $8m for a guy that really shouldn't be in the field and can only hit righties is a lot of loot
• Santander - Give a QO, move on
• Eloy - Duh

This means we need to acquire the following:

• Starting Pitcher(s)
  • The O's can't go into next season giving Povich a spot and they definitely can not give a spot to Rogers. Rogers needs to be a deep depth arm until he showcases an increase in velocity and/or incredible promise that he can be serviceable and not a WHIP disaster who can barely go 5.
  • Targets: Snell, Burnes, Fried, Wacha, Severino, Morton, etc. 
• Reliever(s)
  • No more Phillies castoffs. No more waiver wire, dumpster diving for the entire bullpen. No more washed up vets. 
  • Targets: David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Blake Treinen, Andrew Kittredge, Tanner Scott, etc.
• Position Player(s)
  • Backup C (give more time to the backup if a better hitter so Adley can be fresh throughout year)
    • Targets: Elias Diaz, Travis d'Arnaud (although I reckon the Braves pickup his option), Jacob Stallings. I guess if they're desperate they can stick with Blake Hunt (in the minors)
  • Corner OF
    • We could always acquire a bat first OF and then put Kjerstad in the OF.
    • Targets: Tyler O'Neill, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, etc.
  • Backup OF
    • Could be Mullins if they, say, call up Beavers and sign another OF, otherwise these are a dime a dozen out there. Just get somebody that can platoon since it's a heavy LHH OF right now.

I'd entertain the O's calling up Beavers. 

I agree with the pen but would bring back Dominguez. He’s been good in the 9th inning for the O’s and I think he’d be really good as a 7th inning option to go along with Perez, Webb, and maybe another addition. It depends how the rest of the season and playoffs go too though - if he’s nails the rest of the way I would think it’s a pretty easy decision to bring him back. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm bringing back:

• Offense/Defense
  • C - Adley
  • SS - Gunnar
  • 3B - Westburg
  • 2B - Holliday
  • 1B - Mountcastle
  • DH - Kjerstad
  • LF - Cowser
  • CF - Cowser/Mullins
  • RF - ?
  • Backup OF - ?
  • Backup C - ?
  • Utility - Urias
• Starting Pitchers
  • SP1: Eflin
  • SP2: Grayson
  • SP3: Acquire somebody
  • SP4: Kremer
  • SP5: Suarez
• Relievers
  • Closer: Felix
  • Setup: Cano
  • Late Relief: Webb
  • Late Relief: Coulombe
  • Late Relief: Perez
  • Middle/Long Relief: Akin
  • Reliever: ?
  • Reliever: ?
• Depth
  • SP: Povich, McDermott, Rogers
  • RP: McDermott

I'm bringing back, but not giving a spot to:

• Mayo
• Rogers

Guys I'm giving a QO offer to:

• Burnes
• Santander - I really go back and forth with Santander. He's not great in the outfield. His average and OBP is a liability. But his power is prolific. Does that age well? I don't think so. I'd extend the QO and move on.

I'm not bringing back:

• Mateo - had surgery at the end of August, could he be back in the middle of the season next year? Sure, but he's a FA after next season, and paying over $3m for a guy that might not play nor be effective isn't an adequate use of money
• Dominguez - I could be convinced to keep him if we're desperate
• Soto - was a poor acquisition not just because of the talent given up, but because he was always a situational guy with control issues
• O'Hearn - $8m for a guy that really shouldn't be in the field and can only hit righties is a lot of loot
• Santander - Give a QO, move on
• Eloy - Duh

This means we need to acquire the following:

• Starting Pitcher(s)
  • The O's can't go into next season giving Povich a spot and they definitely can not give a spot to Rogers. Rogers needs to be a deep depth arm until he showcases an increase in velocity and/or incredible promise that he can be serviceable and not a WHIP disaster who can barely go 5.
  • Targets: Snell, Burnes, Fried, Wacha, Severino, Morton, etc. 
• Reliever(s)
  • No more Phillies castoffs. No more waiver wire, dumpster diving for the entire bullpen. No more washed up vets. 
  • Targets: David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Blake Treinen, Andrew Kittredge, Tanner Scott, etc.
• Position Player(s)
  • Backup C (give more time to the backup if a better hitter so Adley can be fresh throughout year)
    • Targets: Elias Diaz, Travis d'Arnaud (although I reckon the Braves pickup his option), Jacob Stallings. I guess if they're desperate they can stick with Blake Hunt (in the minors)
  • Corner OF
    • We could always acquire a bat first OF and then put Kjerstad in the OF.
    • Targets: Tyler O'Neill, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, etc.
  • Backup OF
    • Could be Mullins if they, say, call up Beavers and sign another OF, otherwise these are a dime a dozen out there. Just get somebody that can platoon since it's a heavy LHH OF right now.

I'd entertain the O's calling up Beavers. 

1) It was Mateo non throwing arm.    April would be 7 months.   I think he will make that.

2) Beavers is probably a year away IMO.

3) I think a lot is TBD on O'Hearn.  These next 9 games and the playoffs will tell the tale.   If he steps forward he can have a good chance to stay.