Still think this team didn't choke under pressure?

[Tony-OH]

49 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe the hitting talent isn't as good as we think it is.  

 

Potentially. I still see good EVs and guys with peripherals that make you believe they SHOULD be good. They just need a better team approach that is situationally based in my opinion. 

There's a time to let it fly and and a time to have a good team at bat. The Orioles hitters rarely did the second part, even late in close games.

[Moose Milligan]

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Santander is a great teammate and seems to care a lot. He just came up very small when his team needed him the most. He's had too many unproductive at bats in key situations because he refuses to stop trying to hit a home run on every swing. He's got a slow man's game and he's not the kind of guy that you invest in my opinion. 

I tend to agree with this with my only caveat that he seems to be the bridge for the Hispanic players.  I could see him being a useful player at the correct price, but I wouldn't break the bank for him by any means.  

[deward]

26 minutes ago, PauleeWalnuts said:

The at-bat by Cowser may have been the worst at bat I've ever seen given the moment.

He made his mind up he was swinging before the pitcher even released the ball. Struck out swinging on a pitch that hit him with the bases loaded and broke his hand all on the same play.

Cowser does that a lot (make up his mind to either swing or not swing before the pitch is even thrown). I don't know if that's a correctable issue, but it's such an obvious one that I certainly hope there's a plan to address it. 

[Emory Eagle]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Santander is a great teammate and seems to care a lot. He just came up very small when his team needed him the most. He's had too many unproductive at bats in key situations because he refuses to stop trying to hit a home run on every swing. He's got a slow man's game and he's not the kind of guy that you invest in my opinion. 

Yea believe he is a high chase rate guy and that is not a profile that ages well.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Potentially. I still see good EVs and guys with peripherals that make you believe they SHOULD be good. They just need a better team approach that is situationally based in my opinion. 

There's a time to let it fly and and a time to have a good team at bat. The Orioles hitters rarely did the second part, even late in close games.

Well that's kind of what I mean.  You look at Witt, he obviously has power but he's not trying to do too much given the situation.  He's not swinging from his heels, he's not trying to hit homers every single time.  His bat to ball skills are elite, but part of that is probably because he knows that he can shorten up and use the whole field when the situation calls for it.  

But I also mean aside from good EVs and peripherals...like, Cowser yesterday, what in the F.  Seriously, EVs and peripherals don't tell us about the absolute boneheaded decision to swing at something no matter what.  It's exceptionally rare to see a batter swing at a pitch that actually hits him.  Had you told me that would have been a deciding factor before yesterday's game, I probably wouldn't have believed you...but then thought about it and believed you because it's so pathetic and that's just where we are.  And Mounty almost did the same thing!  

So that's what I mean by also just not being talented as we think...it's past EVs and peripherals.  It's about being mindful of situations, especially at the plate in high leverage moments.  You're right, there's time to let it fly and a time to have good team at bats.  And the Orioles just flat out don't do that.

I don't know what the hitting coaches preach, I don't know what the "offensive coordinator" (what a joke that sounds like) does...but my goodness, from the looks of it they're certainly don't preach about good team at bats, situational hitting, etc.  

[Tony-OH]

40 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Again, I agree that the approach is not working and I hope it is evaluated and changed.  But if you are seeing what happened as choking, I think you are being small.  These same guys hit well in high pressure situations last year.  They produced a runaway ROY in Gunnar Henderson.  They failed last year in the playoffs because of pitching and lost this year in spite of excellent pitching.

A bigger examination is needed.  Santander has a long history of not hitting well in the cooler weather.   It should not be surprising or disappointing that he isn't great in October.  He isn't in March or April or September and really hasn't ever been.

Cowser has had little success in high pressure situations and it seems unlikely that all of that is explainable by pitchers knowing how to pitch him.  

I am more interested in what happened psychologically to this team that seemed like nothing phased it and produced series wins at home and on the road like a factory pouring out product.  If this team, after all of the injuries it sustained failed because of pitching, we could have at least focused on Elilas not getting enough help.

This team failed due to the same reason it has failed since June.  It no longer looks like a good cohesive group.  Hitters seem to be going through the motions, guessing at pitches and flailing away at pitches that good hitters simply don't swing at.  

Something changed and it isn't that they became choke artists.  That just makes us feel better to derisively rip these guys who ripped our hearts out.

No matter what you want to call it, these guys came up small way too often in pressure situations. I truly believe that when a few guys went down, others put more pressure on themselves to pick it up, especially when Holliday came up and failed spectacularly. 

A few losses started to mount up and then the team really felt pressure in close games, and they continued to fail. 

Now do I think Gunnar is a "choke artist?" No, I think he's a young hitter who failed when he was given an opportunity to do something special. It's going to happen. Now did he probably have more pressure on him to do well because no one else was hitting? Sure.

Do I think Santander and Cowser choked? Absolutely. Santander needed to have a professional at bat and instead swing at a ball at his chin to start off the at bat, then popped up to first base. Cowser striking out on a ball that hit him was an approach issue as well as a guy who definitely has shown he can't handle pressure at bats at this point in his career. 

Mountcastle issue's is he's just not very good and can be gotten out by never throwing him a strike. Adley, well, Adley has been terrible since July. Whatever he has going on is his problem, not the pressure. 

At the end of the day, if you have bases loaded and no outs and your 3,4,5 hitters are coming up and you don't score, that's a pressure issue. If it happened once, ok, but we've seen this time and time again with this team's core players.

 

[EdwinRip]

The Yankees are in the playoffs every year. When was the last time they won a World Series?  The royals were awful down the stretch.  Some day posters will realize the playoffs are a crap shoot and you just need to get in to have a chance.  Nothing can guarantee winning in the post season.  Last year’s team had a totally different vibe for most and the playoff games were less competitive.

[JR Oriole]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

No matter what you want to call it, these guys came up small way too often in pressure situations. I truly believe that when a few guys went down, others put more pressure on themselves to pick it up, especially when Holliday came up and failed spectacularly. 

A few losses started to mount up and then the team really felt pressure in close games, and they continued to fail. 

Now do I think Gunnar is a "choke artist?" No, I think he's a young hitter who failed when he was given an opportunity to do something special. It's going to happen. Now did he probably have more pressure on him to do well because no one else was hitting? Sure.

Do I think Santander and Cowser choked? Absolutely. Santander needed to have a professional at bat and instead swing at a ball at his chin to start off the at bat, then popped up to first base. Cowser striking out on a ball that hit him was an approach issue as well as a guy who definitely has shown he can't handle pressure at bats at this point in his career. 

Mountcastle issue's is he's just not very good and can be gotten out by never throwing him a strike. Adley, well, Adley has been terrible since July. Whatever he has going on is his problem, not the pressure. 

At the end of the day, if you have bases loaded and no outs and your 3,4,5 hitters are coming up and you don't score, that's a pressure issue. If it happened once, ok, but we've seen this time and time again with this team's core players.

 

Santander is a very predictable hitter. He has said on numerous occasions that he is better in warmer weather, which is a problem given that the playoffs are never in the summer. He is always overanxious to get the big hit, so there is never a need to throw him a real strike in a big spot. That pitch he hit for a grand slam against Houston in August was in the same location as the first pitch last night.  He was going to swing no matter what against Houston and every time thereafter in that same situation in the hopes of duplicating it. 

Our 3-4-5 are more like 7-8-9 because in big spots, there is no need to throw Santander a strike since he will get himself out.  Cowser probably already knew what pitch numbers in the sequence he was going to swing at before he even got to the plate. And Adley was going to do Adley things and watch, then miss a couple of meatballs before harmlessly grounding out.  

[JR Oriole]

10 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

The Yankees are in the playoffs every year. When was the last time they won a World Series?  The royals were awful down the stretch.  Some day posters will realize the playoffs are a crap shoot and you just need to get in to have a chance.  Nothing can guarantee winning in the post season.  Last year’s team had a totally different vibe for most and the playoff games were less competitive.

I am pretty sure they have won 4 of them since the last time we won a single game in the ALCS.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

No matter what you want to call it, these guys came up small way too often in pressure situations. I truly believe that when a few guys went down, others put more pressure on themselves to pick it up, especially when Holliday came up and failed spectacularly. 

A few losses started to mount up and then the team really felt pressure in close games, and they continued to fail. 

Now do I think Gunnar is a "choke artist?" No, I think he's a young hitter who failed when he was given an opportunity to do something special. It's going to happen. Now did he probably have more pressure on him to do well because no one else was hitting? Sure.

Do I think Santander and Cowser choked? Absolutely. Santander needed to have a professional at bat and instead swing at a ball at his chin to start off the at bat, then popped up to first base. Cowser striking out on a ball that hit him was an approach issue as well as a guy who definitely has shown he can't handle pressure at bats at this point in his career. 

Mountcastle issue's is he's just not very good and can be gotten out by never throwing him a strike. Adley, well, Adley has been terrible since July. Whatever he has going on is his problem, not the pressure. 

At the end of the day, if you have bases loaded and no outs and your 3,4,5 hitters are coming up and you don't score, that's a pressure issue. If it happened once, ok, but we've seen this time and time again with this team's core players.

 

I don't really believe clutch exists.  I don't believe that guys can up their game in pressure situations.  But I do believe in the inverse, that guys can crumble in big moments.

To illustrate that, I saw Derek Jeter's postseason career stats the other day.  It was something like 158 games, a .308 average, 200 hits, 20 homers, 65 RBI, 115 runs...basically, tack on another season to his regular season numbers and averages, the stats are fairly identical.  And yet there's this myth about him that he was some sort of clutch-demi god.  He was a great postseason and "clutch" performer because he was a .300 career hitter.  He didn't suddenly elevate his game in the playoffs.  Michael Jordan was great in clutch moments because he was great every other time he had the ball in non-clutch moments...etc, etc.

I say that to say that while I'm as mad about Tony and Cowser and Mounty choking, I don't think any of us should be surprised...I mean, this is who they are, a bunch of swing-happy guys who have no plate discipline and chase out of the zone.  It is getting mad at water for being wet, in other words.

But I also feel that to your points and what we've been talking about, the lack of situational awareness is really why I'm mad here.  There's no awareness or effort to shorten the approach and make contact and that's why I'm pissed at all of them...they don't adjust.  It's just balls to the walls swinging all the time.  

No wonder Bobby Witt Jr. won a batting title this year.  And I know it's not en vogue to marvel at someone winning a batting title these days but .332 is f'ing .332.  It was .332 in 1924, it was .322 in 1954, it was .322 in 1984 and in 1994 and 2004.  It's greatness no matter the era and it tells you a lot about what kind of an approach that hitter has.  And he showed what he's all about these past two days, meanwhile we have our swing happy dickheads who wouldn't ever dream of shortening up to make contact in a situation that calls for it.

[milbest77]

16 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

The Yankees are in the playoffs every year. When was the last time they won a World Series?  The royals were awful down the stretch.  Some day posters will realize the playoffs are a crap shoot and you just need to get in to have a chance.  Nothing can guarantee winning in the post season.  Last year’s team had a totally different vibe for most and the playoff games were less competitive.

The moneyball analytical approach might get you a playoff series win or two, but more often than not the teams that spend end up in the WS. I know there are some outliers like AZ last year, but most WS teams have a larger payroll. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Santander is a very predictable hitter. He has said on numerous occasions that he is better in warmer weather, which is a problem given that the playoffs are never in the summer. He is always overanxious to get the big hit, so there is never a need to throw him a real strike in a big spot. That pitch he hit for a grand slam against Houston in August was in the same location as the first pitch last night.  He was going to swing no matter what against Houston and every time thereafter in that same situation in the hopes of duplicating it. 

Our 3-4-5 are more like 7-8-9 because in big spots, there is no need to throw Santander a strike since he will get himself out.  Cowser probably already knew what pitch numbers in the sequence he was going to swing at before he even got to the plate. And Adley was going to do Adley things and watch, then miss a couple of meatballs before harmlessly grounding out.  

There's no need to throw most of our guys strikes.  Adley used to be that guy where you had to throw him strikes or else he'd be a threat to get on base but between his old man back and his smokeshow girlfriend, that ability has vanished.

I was hoping we were past the teams of Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo and guys who'd just swing at everything and post low OBPs and offenses that'd only score if they were homering, but here we are.

Someone was saying last night that the Royals pitching wasn't impressive, I disagreed.  They obviously had good scouting and knew that a guy like Tony would chase high out of the zone and they pitched him that way almost exclusively.  I'm sure everyone knows that Mountcastle will swing at a low and outside slider and expand the zone with two strikes.  No, the Royals did a fantastic job of pitching to our swing happy dickheads, they knew exactly what to do...they had a game plan and they executed it perfectly.  

[Osornot]

Hitting coaches and Hyde are automatic.

Anyone else I will leave to those better suited.

IMO

Pitching - call me Pollyanna but if anyone thinks injuries didn't matter... However, the BP is key and we blew it.  

Defense - no excuse - they were just not good

Manager - It is now time to hand over the reins.  Unless I am off-base, I have a gut feeling that there is an attitude that it is ok to get that participation trophy. 

Elias - I believe this offseason will be telling with the new owner on board.  They know each other now and hopefully have had some philosophical conversations.... things will settle down a bit blah blah blah

[BRobinsonfan]

13 hours ago, theobird said:

don’t you know that the OH guard will prosecute you for hinting that batting average has value? lol. According to the statisticians on here, batting average is a meaningless stat. 

Understand this. I agree with you. And I would love to acquire a pure hitter like Arraez. It has become all the rage to praise the HR, even when it comes from a guy with a .230 average. But we just saw what happens when we have a lineup full of swing and miss. You get blanked. A lot. 

The Orioles had the 3rd highest team batting average in the American League.  There batting average and OBP in the regular season were both higher than the Royals.