Here come the Heels!

[photoman]

Ah yes, protect yourselves now by already setting the table with the "officiating" excuse. We all *know* that Carolina gets all the alls, especially at home.

Give me a break. There are exactly three ways for Carolina to lose this game (and really, that's what it comes down to - Carolina losing, not Maryland winning. By that I mean, Carolina, if it plays its game, has no business losing. It wuldtake Carolina messing things up for maryleand to win.):

1. Poor FG% defense - if Carolina doesn't contest the perimiter shot and MUMD shoots above 45%, UNC will have a tough time.

2. Sloppiness - if Carolina isn't careful with the ball and turns it over too much, they'll reduce their number of possessions, which will mitigate the points per possession advantage they are bound to have.

3. Poor defensive rebounding - if Carolina allows Maryland to crash the offensive glass with abandon and doesn't box out, Maryland will get second and third chances, which will keep them in the game.

Officiating has NOTHING to do with it. The fact is that Carolina has been terrific this year at drawing fouls and staying out of foul trouble themselves. They have made more FT than their opponents have attempted. So unless Carolina is getting extremely biased calls in every game they play, including against Indiana and Kentucky, the foul differential is more likely to have originated from a regimented, conservative approach to defense.

Williams need to start out with a Zone defense. 2-3 first to see if their shots are on. If they're shooting fairly well then switch to the 3-2. The man Zone should still be a third option. And stick with either if they're working. If Maryland gets duped into spreading their team all over the floor especially with the stupid trapping, pressing defense, Carolina, the officials, and confusion will eat them alive.

[Mackus]

Williams need to start out with a Zone defense. 2-3 first to see if their shots are on. If they're shooting fairly well then switch to the 3-2. The man Zone should still be a third option. And stick with either if they're working. If Maryland gets duped into spreading their team all over the floor especially with the stupid trapping, pressing defense, Carolina, the officials, and confusion will eat them alive.

Maryland playing zone would be a bad idea. Carolina has some very good shooters and Maryland's biggest weakness the past two years has been defensive rebounding. Playing zone leads to many offensive rebounds because each player doesn't have a specific guy to box out.

If we play zone, we'll have no chance of winning.

[Nuclear Dish]

Maryland playing zone would be a bad idea. Carolina has some very good shooters and Maryland's biggest weakness the past two years has been defensive rebounding. Playing zone leads to many offensive rebounds because each player doesn't have a specific guy to box out.

If we play zone, we'll have no chance of winning.

I agree with this 100%. Felton recently ran off 12 consecutive made 3-pointers, McCants is deadly accurate, and Scott would eat them alive from behind the arc. The 3-2 might be better, but then you are allowing May and J. Williams to have much more room to work in the lane, which would also be a mistake.

Maryland should start out in man-to-man, see how things go, and if they hit foul trouble or for a change of pace they can throw in some 3-2.

[photoman]

Maryland playing zone would be a bad idea. Carolina has some very good shooters and Maryland's biggest weakness the past two years has been defensive rebounding. Playing zone leads to many offensive rebounds because each player doesn't have a specific guy to box out.

If we play zone, we'll have no chance of winning.

If thats the case, which im not doubting then Maryland stands no chance. Maryland has always played a halfass zone defense because it seem something that GWilliams does not like using. I dont know if the Terps have the players, but if you are going to use your bench then play matchup zone defense. With Marylands athletic type players, put somebody 6-5 on those guards. Make then alter their shots at least sometimes, even if they get fouled. You just cant let a team roll in their game to no end. Thats been a problem of the Terps in the past. So many late game collapses.

I always notice that most teams the Terps play have great shooting nights because the Terps trapping, pressure defense allows the other teams shooters to get wide open. But Carolinas game will show if the Terps are defensively ready for the big boys.

[Mackus]

Since when do the Terps have late game collapses?

The problem last year (and this year to an extent) has been they've taken too long to get going, and their strong second half (and final minute) pushes have come up short. They are definitely a second half team, they almost always perform better in the second half than the first.

Man-to-man is the best way for this team to play defense. We have guys who are very athletic and great on-the-ball defenders (McCray and Strawberry) and we struggle on the defnesive glass. We are also great at getting into passing lanes, which wouldn't happen as much in a zone defense. Playing zone neutralizes everything we're good at and magnifies eveything we struggle at.

[Nuclear Dish]

If thats the case, which im not doubting then Maryland stands no chance. Maryland has always played a halfass zone defense because it seem something that GWilliams does not like using. I dont know if the Terps have the players, but if you are going to use your bench then play matchup zone defense. With Marylands athletic type players, put somebody 6-5 on those guards. Make then alter their shots at least sometimes, even if they get fouled. You just cant let a team roll in their game to no end.

Has Maryland ever used a matchup zone? It's nto the type of thing you can just call out and have the players perform on command unless it's been practiced.

Most teams that use the matchup zone play it exclusively. Temple, for example, has used it for years and years. Unless maryland has used this before or has been secretly practicing this behind closed doors, I can't see this being a realistic option for them.

One thing they could do is try to throw a lot of different looks at Carolina, to take UNC out of any kind of rythym. If they rotate their defenses, Carolina might not be as successful at creating an offensive pace that suits them.

I hoe gary Williams ins't reading this. i don't care to be givinghim advice on how to beat the Heels!

[Ruzious]

Maryland playing zone would be a bad idea. Carolina has some very good shooters and Maryland's biggest weakness the past two years has been defensive rebounding. Playing zone leads to many offensive rebounds because each player doesn't have a specific guy to box out.

If we play zone, we'll have no chance of winning.

I concur - especially with Felton improving his jump shot. If May kills us inside - so be it. Hopefully, he'll get in foul trouble or get tired in the frenetic pace of the game.

Maryland will have to use full court pressing successfully to make it a wild sloppy game. People complain about them playing sloppy, but it's the frenetic pace where they are at a competitive advantage - due to their quickness and speed. They're just not good enough to beat UNC in a half court game.

[BrotherLowe]

Maryland always plays well againt Carolina, both home and away.

Carolina has to be the favorite for this game, but I think they'll have a tough time with Ibekwe inside (much too quick for May). The key factors will be how well Caner-Medley/Strawberry do of containing McCants, who is definitely the most explosive player in the ACC and the point guard matchup, where i think Gilchrist has a slight edge over Felton. May will get his 15-20 points, but I don't think he'll be a huge factor, i'm most worried about McCants, who is the type of player that just all but eliminates NCM from the game, hopefully DJ can do a solid job defending him and we can get our points on the inside from Garrison, Ibekwe, and Gist.

Mackus, I always appreciate your POV on the Orioles board, but your off base here. To say that Gilchrist has an edge over Felton is ludicrous. And when has Ibekwe given anybody trouble on the interior, let alone a player like May? And don't you think Jawad or Marvin Williams could step out on Ibekwe if need be anyway?

The Terps 'talent' is overrated, and has been for the last two seasons. McCray is one of the worst regular players in the ACC, if you ask me.

Go Heels, they'll win by 10+.

[Mackus]

Mackus, I always appreciate your POV on the Orioles board, but your off base here. To say that Gilchrist has an edge over Felton is ludicrous. And when has Ibekwe given anybody trouble on the interior, let alone a player like May? And don't you think Jawad or Marvin Williams could step out on Ibekwe if need be anyway?

The Terps 'talent' is overrated, and has been for the last two seasons. McCray is one of the worst regular players in the ACC, if you ask me.

Go Heels, they'll win by 10+.

I know I wouldn't trade Gilchrist for Felton. Both are great players, but I think Gilchrist is more of a leader, which is what this Maryland team needs. I also feel that Felton is a better fit for Carolina's team than Gilchrist would be. Neither would be as good as they are right now if they switched roles.

McCray is a solid 2 guard and had two nice games against UNC last year IIRC.

Ibekwe had around 20 and 10 against Wisconsin, who is very tough inside. Ibekwe is an interior player, so I don't understand your comment about Williams or McCants stepping outside on him. Ibekwe will give May fits inside because he is considerably quicker than him, much like Jamar Smith did last year. may will get his points, but he won't be doing much stopping on defense.

Carolina definitely has the better team, and they are at home, so they should win, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a Maryland victory, mainly because we always play the Heels so tight.

[Max Power]

Did someone actually call Scott a sharpshooter in this thread? What is this 2002?

The two UNC games I watched this year he was extremely tentative and still looks like he is steering the ball instead of shooting. Not sure when or why he lost it but the games I saw he was a lot more Ed Cota than Shammond Williams.

[BrotherLowe]

I know I wouldn't trade Gilchrist for Felton. Both are great players, but I think Gilchrist is more of a leader, which is what this Maryland team needs. I also feel that Felton is a better fit for Carolina's team than Gilchrist would be. Neither would be as good as they are right now if they switched roles.

McCray is a solid 2 guard and had two nice games against UNC last year IIRC.

Ibekwe had around 20 and 10 against Wisconsin, who is very tough inside. Ibekwe is an interior player, so I don't understand your comment about Williams or McCants stepping outside on him. Ibekwe will give May fits inside because he is considerably quicker than him, much like Jamar Smith did last year. may will get his points, but he won't be doing much stopping on defense.

Carolina definitely has the better team, and they are at home, so they should win, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a Maryland victory, mainly because we always play the Heels so tight.

I agree with you about Felton and Gilchrist switching teams, they are playing in the place where they can each maximize their skill set, and its hard to argue your leadership point on Gilchrist. I do think Felton holds things together as a leader more for UNC than he gets credit for.

And I didn't say Williams or McCants, I said Williams or Williams - Jawad or Marvin. And if I said outside, I didn't really mean outside, I just meant they can step up and guard Ibekwe if May gets in foul trouble or has problems against him.

And I still think McCray sucks. In the first game last year, in CP, he hadn't scored in the entire game, then got a bucket on a breakaway dunk with 7-8 minutes remaining, and preened for the crowd, thumping his chest and what not. This after NOT SCORING THE ENTIRE GAME BEFORE THAT. I don't know what he ended up with, but it wasn't great. You can keep him.

[BrotherLowe]

Did someone actually call Scott a sharpshooter in this thread? What is this 2002?

The two UNC games I watched this year he was extremely tentative and still looks like he is steering the ball instead of shooting. Not sure when or why he lost it but the games I saw he was a lot more Ed Cota than Shammond Williams.

You are correct about Melvin Scott. His shot has stunk since late in the season last year. He may end up being a key for the Heels this year - if he starts shooting like he was at the beginning of last year, it will be almost impossible to stop all of the scorers on that team.

I'd still take Scott over McCray though.

[Mackus]

And I still think McCray sucks. In the first game last year, in CP, he hadn't scored in the entire game, then got a bucket on a breakaway dunk with 7-8 minutes remaining, and preened for the crowd, thumping his chest and what not. This after NOT SCORING THE ENTIRE GAME BEFORE THAT. I don't know what he ended up with, but it wasn't great. You can keep him.

He was completely justified for that outburst after that dunk. It was the single biggest play of the game. It capped a Maryland run that tied up the game and we controlled the momentum the rest of the way.

He isn't a superstar, but he isn't a liability at all. He's also a very good defensive player.

[glenn__davis]

McCray is a solid 2 guard. No one is saying he's Rashad McCants, and as Mackus pointed out, he's a very good defender. He's certainly not one of the worst starters in the ACC.

I'm not even going to make a prediction on this game, because both teams are too erratic. If Maryland shoots as well as they have been, they'll win. However, they won't shoot the ball as well as they have been because they never do in big games. Remember, though, that as talented as Carolina is, it's still the same team that went 8-8 (or somewhere around that) in conference play last season. And the DeanDome is probably one of the least significant home-court advantages in the ACC. I can see this game breaking either way.

[BrotherLowe]

I'm not even going to make a prediction on this game, because both teams are too erratic.

i didnt realize that 12 straight wins, against some solid opponents, made you 'erratic'.