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The Official Draft Thread


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    • The second question is - what extensions can the Orioles do with guys other than these 4, who are not Boras clients? Don’t want to rehash the “Boras clients don’t extend” debate, but let’s assume whatever they can do with these 4 doesn’t impact the ability to do other extensions.  Grayson: With 5 years of control after this one, it would have to be something like 6 years + a couple option years. Possible, but not super high priority.  Bradish: Entirely TBD on how he returns from injury, and even then a bit of the same question as Grayson with so much control remaining.  Westburg, Cowser and Kjerstad: Lumping them all together because I think it’s similar considerations. At their ages when their years of control expire, I don’t think it really makes sense. All 3 have been phenomenal to start the year but still have significant question marks about their games (really high whiff rates and not great K/BB for Westburg and Cowser, Kjerstad’s defense, chase rate and of course not yet facing MLB yet). Mayo and Basallo: Given their ages they are going to be the best candidates, IMO. However, it’s premature now for obvious reasons, particularly with the major questions about how much defensive value they are going to provide at the MLB level.  Unfortunately I have a hard time seeing any extensions happening in the near future, even if Elias and Rubenstein have all the best intentions of wanting to do them. 
    • My opinion in principle depends on the duration of the FA contract.  For the Orioles as currently constructed, the roster will be inexpensive over next 3 years with most premium guys either pre-arb or early arb years.  That would make me lean toward FA signing of elite SP this upcoming offseason. Now last winter we saw only Nola receive long duration contract at 7yrs (I’m putting Yamamoto & Ohtani in separate category given the JP marketing angle).  The industry seemed reticent to give $$$ and length to the other premium SPs (Snell, Montgomery) but was this Boras driven?  Would the premium SPs be willing to sign 3-4 yr deals at higher AAVs or instead play out essentially one year deals?  Example — would a guy like Burnes go for 4/175M? the market dynamics will be interesting with demand (which big market clubs pursuing — Cubs, LAA, SFG, NYY?) and supply (Burnes, Fried as FAs and Montgomery, Snell, Cole as potential opt outs).  As well as Boras negotiating factor.   
    • Adley by default (though not sure if he’d prefer to be west coast long term). I don’t expect Gunnar, Corbin, or Jackson to be viable extension options.  I know there are some examples of Boras clients extending like Strasbourg and Carlos Gomez, but it’s rare and I can’t see Elias pulling the trigger on what it would take to get one of those deals done.  
    • The playoffs is extremely volatile. This isn't the NBA or even the NFL; the best team doesn't win all the time, or perhaps even most of the time. So long as they are annually good enough to win the AL East, there really can be no rational critique of their approach.
    • You predicting any rings? At this point that should be the goal.
    • Here's my prediction: We're going to win ~ games this season and ~100 games next season. And in between, in the next off-season, this board will have several meltdowns bemoaning the lack of FA signings.
    • This is why I was against the Burnes trade. I could turn out to be wrong even only having him for one year, but I would have rather got a guy with a few years of control. I agree though. You really can't extend him at what he's going to ask for.
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