When the Big Three Are Called Up . . .

[QBsILLEST1]

Over the last several years the O's have had some certified lights-out prospects. Weiters, Matusz, Tillman, Arietta. When they all graduate I don't see the potential for a top 10 prospect. Hobgood might develop into one, but that will be a few years down the road. Britton will probably top out in the 40's and I don't see Erbe, Spoone, Joseph, Welty Avery, Bundy being top 75 prospects. In the baseball prospect prognostications one of the keys for having a good system is top-shelf talent who is at a reasonably advanced level. The O's just don't have it after the big 3. Even if they sign Sano I doubt he is top 25 until a year or two in the system. I predict the team will drop to the high to mid 20's after the big three graduate.

I wouldnt say that the team will drop back into the mid 20's after our Big 3 graduate. We will probably still be middle of the pack around 13-15th. Though we dont have a ton of top end talent, we have an amzing amount of depth with some pretty good top guys still. Mid 20's is similar to what we were back 5-6 years ago, there is no way we sink to that level. Righ now if you took the Big 3 and Snyder out, our system is still better than it had been in the last 12 or so years....

Exactly, they do not have the track record yet. You tell me that "there really is no way you can say they wont be as good as the Big 3," but as it stands now, we don't have the evidence that suggests that they'll be as good as our top crop. We can look at projection, but so much can change with development, and therefor I think it's too soon to say what they will become with so much conviction.

I really hope for the best with the younger guys, and the tools they have are very exciting. I just think that it's asking a lot of Hobgood, Beal, Erbe, Britton, and Bundy to develop into the next big 3 when the current Big 3 consists of two top 10 guys and a borderline top 25 guy. That's unbelievable. I guess my point is that they COULD become a trio of that caliber, I don't think it's fair to say that it's a certainty that they will become that.

I don't mean to sound anti-prospect, I'm just more conservative in my approach because of the failure rate of prospects. Believe me, I would love another Big 3, but we'll see what happens, because a lot of it is the "if" game. For the sake of the O's, QB, I hope you are right though, and two years from now we'll have a much better answer.

I guess, I am being too forward with saying that these younger pitchers WILL be as good as the enxt Big 3, because if I did say that they WILL be as good, thats not what I meant. They CAN be that good, and there is no argument with that, and this is what I have been saying all along. 2 years ago, you wouldnt have said Tillman will be the top right handed pitching prospect in the game, but you could say that he CAN be. This is what I am saying, these guys CAN be as good as the Big 3 are right now. Development is as important as ceiling and there is no telling how trhese guys will develop. The only summation that can be clearly stated is that the next crop of pitching CAN be as good as the Big 3.

Of Hobgood, Beal, Erbe, Britton and Bundy... if one of those guys goes on to be a Top 10 national prospect, two are in the Top 50 and another is in the Top 100, that's exceptional. I would be ecstatic if that happens and I think the system as a whole would be highly regarded in that situation. What we are looking at with Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta are three guys that in any other system not San Francisco or Texas would likely be considered Pitching Prospect #1 or at least #1A. That doesn't happen often. We can't get greedy and expect every year we have a machine of pitching prospects marching through the minors, forcing promotions and a spot in the ML starting rotation.

As of this posting, Erbe was just taken out in his first game back in Bowie from a shoulder injury, now with an ankle injury. Bundy was shelled for 5 runs in a third of an inning and Hobgood hasn't thrown a professional pitch. I'm all about eternal optimism... I am still an Orioles fan... but I'm not delusional.

I never once said I expect these guys to be as good, but they can definately be as good. IMO Hobgood has a good chance to be atleast as good as any of the Big 3. Now, this whole conversation here is also disregarding these high ceiling young HS and JuCo pitchers we are currently signing from the draft. We have a crop of young high ceiling prospects, some will pan out , some wont, but the ones that do pan out and have this high ceiling can really be very strong pitching prospect. Strong enough to be top 10 in the MLB if you will. I am not saying that any of these gusy will be, but there is a very very good chance that we will have som pitchers from this group that are as good as the Big 3.

And when speaking of Bundy who got shelled last outing, you have to think about how hard of a transition that it is making the jump from HS ball to pro ball. In pro ball, you are basically facing the top players from any given area, there are usually no sure outsn like there are in HS. Let them make the transition. Bundy ahs ML stuff, just let him go through the growing pains. Beal has been pretty good so far showing a good bit of polish and command while still filling out and gaining velocity. Just give them a chance. I am not saying they will be as good as Arrieta Matusz and Tillman, but you cant say these guys wont be just because the Big 3 is really good.....

[glenn__davis]

We will have a lot of pretty good prospects at Bowie next year. Just like Snyder stepped up this year, Waring, Henson, Joseph, and yes, even Florimon could step up next year at AA.

That Frederick team is really filled with guys who maybe, possibly, might become develop into major leaguers. To your list I'd add Adams and Angle, and we haven't even mentioned Rowell. Henson especially has sort've quietly risen to putting up some more respectable numbers. I look forward to seeing what he does in the 2nd half.

[glenn__davis]

I wouldnt say that the team will drop back into the mid 20's after our Big 3 graduate. We will probably still be middle of the pack around 13-15th. Though we dont have a ton of top end talent, we have an amzing amount of depth with some pretty good top guys still. Mid 20's is similar to what we were back 5-6 years ago, there is no way we sink to that level. Righ now if you took the Big 3 and Snyder out, our system is still better than it had been in the last 12 or so years...

Our high rankings the last three years have largely been due to Wieters and the Big 3. You say that after them we have "an amazing amount of depth." I'm not sure we have any more depth in the system after they graduate than most other teams. All teams have projects and prospects that they're excited about the lower levels, but we won't really have one true blue-chip talent in the organization once the others have graduated.

As RZNJ mentioned, I will be interested to see how this Frederick squad finishes and what they do at Bowie next year. I have no numbers to back it up, but it seems to me like our positional players improve from Delmarva to Frederick and then again from Frederick to Bowie. So that group will be fun to watch.

[QBsILLEST1]

Our high rankings the last three years have largely been due to Wieters and the Big 3. You say that after them we have "an amazing amount of depth." I'm not sure we have any more depth in the system after they graduate than most other teams. All teams have projects and prospects that they're excited about the lower levels, but we won't really have one true blue-chip talent in the organization once the others have graduated.

As RZNJ mentioned, I will be interested to see how this Frederick squad finishes and what they do at Bowie next year. I have no numbers to back it up, but it seems to me like our positional players improve from Delmarva to Frederick and then again from Frederick to Bowie. So that group will be fun to watch.

Well, until 2008, there was no Big 3. Tillman was a good prospect, but 08 was a major break out season for him. Arrieta didnt get officially a pro ball debut until 08, and wasnt ranked very highly until the end of 08, I think he was like 6th in the system to start that season. Matusz wasnt even on any lists until the very end of 08 and into 09.

And this blue chip talent that you are talking about, thats not what I am saying that we have. I am sayign we have depth in the form of quality prospects, not necessarily top 10 in the majors prospects, but these kids right now are at the lower levels, as you said, give them another year until all of the Big 3 are gone, and those younger kids will have more experience and a hgiher prospect status. We have an amzing amount of depth of young young pitchers. We will know this month how Spoone ios throwing and if his velo is back, he says it is, but we'll see. Our deoth includes: Britton, Erbe,(hopefully) Spoone, Patton, Hobgood, Bundy, Beal, Drake, Zagone, Noel, Cowan, Wirsh, and once we sign Henry and Tolliver, you can include them as well. And thats just quality arms, position players include: Caleb Joseph, Ronnie Welty, Avery, Hoes, Townsend, Corey Thomas and a few others....

Depth is our strength, blue chippers would include Hobgood. Spoone and Erbe can be blue chippers depending on how they come abck from injury. We will have to play it out and see.....But depth is our strength after the Big 3 graduate, and its unfair to say we wont have top end talent a year from now because you cannot judge how a player will develop, and development is how a Beal turns into a Tillman, in a year a lot can happen, just ask Arrieta or Tillman, especially when it comes to prospect status.

[glenn__davis]

Depth is our strength, blue chippers would include Hobgood. Spoone and Erbe can be blue chippers depending on how they come abck from injury. We will have to play it out and see.....But depth is our strength after the Big 3 graduate, and its unfair to say we wont have top end talent a year from now because you cannot judge how a player will develop, and development is how a Beal turns into a Tillman, in a year a lot can happen, just ask Arrieta or Tillman, especially when it comes to prospect status.

OK, if you're saying the the players we have now can develop into a top farm system, I can agree with that. But that's looking at things more closely than a system like BA is going to, IMO. Once the Big 3 graduate, they're basically going to look at our top 3 levels and see 2 guys that really look like legitimate MLB prospects (Britton and Snyder). Possibly Erbe. I'm not discounting other guys like Patton or Spoone or half of the Keys starting line-up, just saying that those guys aren't going to garner much attention from people that make these types of rankings.

Sure, we have some other guys than can possibly take the next step, but most of them are at the lower levels. A lot of teams have guys at the lower levels that they hope develop, but we all know that doesn't always happen. An organization like BA just isn't going to look at guys like Beal or Bundy or Drake, IMO, when coming up with their system rankings.

That's why I'd expect us to take quite a tumble for a year or two once the Big 3 are gone. Can the next wave bring us back up again? I sure hope so, but that's what every other team hopes for as well.

[Say O!]

There is no doubt that the O's system is deeper than in the bleak years. BUT, the major publications (BA, etc) all commented on the O's system being top-heavy. The top 10 system was a result of the Big 3 and Wieters, not the depth.

This year's draft and next year's draft will need to replenish the coffers in order for the O's system to still be upper half.

[QBsILLEST1]

OK, if you're saying the the players we have now can develop into a top farm system, I can agree with that. But that's looking at things more closely than a system like BA is going to, IMO. Once the Big 3 graduate, they're basically going to look at our top 3 levels and see 2 guys that really look like legitimate MLB prospects (Britton and Snyder). Possibly Erbe. I'm not discounting other guys like Patton or Spoone or half of the Keys starting line-up, just saying that those guys aren't going to garner much attention from people that make these types of rankings.

Sure, we have some other guys than can possibly take the next step, but most of them are at the lower levels. A lot of teams have guys at the lower levels that they hope develop, but we all know that doesn't always happen. An organization like BA just isn't going to look at guys like Beal or Bundy or Drake, IMO, when coming up with their system rankings.

That's why I'd expect us to take quite a tumble for a year or two once the Big 3 are gone. Can the next wave bring us back up again? I sure hope so, but that's what every other team hopes for as well.

As I said in the other thread that seems to be discussing the same exact thing. By judging our top 10 or 20 list in a year is impossible. Some players step it up, some break out, some fall appart, and this happens every single year. Right now we have the rest of this season, and the 1st half of next season to watch these next waves of prospects develop. There is a direct correlation with development and time when judging a system's strength. Basically what I am meaning by this is that it is unfair to judge the system by saying "next year when the Big 3 and Snyder are gone, the system will be weak". No one knows who will develop into the next top prospect or who will falter. We have a whole bunch of depth in high ceiling arms that are ready to either break out or fall appart. Some will break out and some will falter, some will stay the same but you cannot judge the list in 2010, but judge the system's development in 2009. Its unfair and impossible.

[jerios55]

Of Hobgood, Beal, Erbe, Britton and Bundy... if one of those guys goes on to be a Top 10 national prospect, two are in the Top 50 and another is in the Top 100, that's exceptional. I would be ecstatic if that happens and I think the system as a whole would be highly regarded in that situation. What we are looking at with Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta are three guys that in any other system not San Francisco or Texas would likely be considered Pitching Prospect #1 or at least #1A. That doesn't happen often. We can't get greedy and expect every year we have a machine of pitching prospects marching through the minors, forcing promotions and a spot in the ML starting rotation.

As of this posting, Erbe was just taken out in his first game back in Bowie from a shoulder injury, now with an ankle injury. Bundy was shelled for 5 runs in a third of an inning and Hobgood hasn't thrown a professional pitch. I'm all about eternal optimism... I am still an Orioles fan... but I'm not delusional.

No need to be delusional, if the big 3 work out and BB continues to pitch well there won't be a big need for the minors to produce too much over the next few years. I believe they drafted a little HS heavy this draft knowing that high upside guys would have a little more time to develop.

It wasn't that long ago that our system was in shambles. I'd still take a minor league system, minus the Big 3, over those of 5 years ago. Combine that with the fact that the major league team will have more talent it's ok if the system has a drop off...as long as they keep adding talent/potential.

[BringBackMagic]

No need to be delusional, if the big 3 work out and BB continues to pitch well there won't be a big need for the minors to produce too much over the next few years. I believe they drafted a little HS heavy this draft knowing that high upside guys would have a little more time to develop.

It wasn't that long ago that our system was in shambles. I'd still take a minor league system, minus the Big 3, over those of 5 years ago. Combine that with the fact that the major league team will have more talent it's ok if the system has a drop off...as long as they keep adding talent/potential.

I want to make it clear that I love our pitching depth in the minor. Offensively we are still very much lacking, but the arms down there now, plus however many high ceiling HS arms we sign from this recent draft, are fantastic.

The initial question posed at the beginning of this thread was where do we stand after the Big 3 graduate. That answer is quite a step backward. 5 years ago, we were one of the worst handful of minor league systems in the league. Now we are in the Top 10. With the depth in pitching and a few solid young position players, we should settle into the middle of the back, 13-18 i would figure.

If Hobgood, Beal, Bundy, Britton, Wirsch and Erbe develop, we'll be set up again for another influx 3-4 years from now.

[QBsILLEST1]

I want to make it clear that I love our pitching depth in the minor. Offensively we are still very much lacking, but the arms down there now, plus however many high ceiling HS arms we sign from this recent draft, are fantastic.

The initial question posed at the beginning of this thread was where do we stand after the Big 3 graduate. That answer is quite a step backward. 5 years ago, we were one of the worst handful of minor league systems in the league. Now we are in the Top 10. With the depth in pitching and a few solid young position players, we should settle into the middle of the back, 13-18 i would figure.

If Hobgood, Beal, Bundy, Britton, Wirsch and Erbe develop, we'll be set up again for another influx 3-4 years from now.

Dont forget about Henry and Tolliver, you probably ommitted them though since neither have signed yet....

[LookinUp]

The initial question posed at the beginning of this thread was where do we stand after the Big 3 graduate. That answer is quite a step backward.

I think the answer is: too soon to tell. A year and a half is a long time in prospect land. We have guys who could turn into studs and guys who could turn into busts. Erbe and Britton could both be top 40 prospects at this time next year. We just don't know. Avery could be top 50, or he could miss everyone's list.

There are simply too many factors and unknowns to really guess. What if we trade Sherrill and Huff for a list of prospects? That could totally change things as far as our system is concerned. Ditto a signing like Sano (assuming he is what people think he is). What if a player like Buster Posey or an expensive high-ceiling guy like Matzek breaks out next year and falls to us in the 2010 draft? What if one of these signability guys turns into the next Arrieta? We'd know that by next offseason.

I do want to make one point. Every single team just drafted a lot of guys with upside. They can all use "what if's" right now. It's up to Jordan to get the best guys and it's up to our player development people to make sure some of them become the best. In this respect, I'm pretty comfortable that we'll be pleasantly surprised a couple of times over the next 1.5 years.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think the answer is: too soon to tell. A year and a half is a long time in prospect land. We have guys who could turn into studs and guys who could turn into busts. Erbe and Britton could both be top 40 prospects at this time next year. We just don't know. Avery could be top 50, or he could miss everyone's list.

There are simply too many factors and unknowns to really guess. What if we trade Sherrill and Huff for a list of prospects? That could totally change things as far as our system is concerned. Ditto a signing like Sano (assuming he is what people think he is). What if a player like Buster Posey or an expensive high-ceiling guy like Matzek breaks out next year and falls to us in the 2010 draft? What if one of these signability guys turns into the next Arrieta? We'd know that by next offseason.

I do want to make one point. Every single team just drafted a lot of guys with upside. They can all use "what if's" right now. It's up to Jordan to get the best guys and it's up to our player development people to make sure some of them become the best. In this respect, I'm pretty comfortable that we'll be pleasantly surprised a couple of times over the next 1.5 years.

Thank you for summing up what I have said in different context, maybe it makes more sense to others here in your words. It is just too early to tell and unfair to judge a list in 2010 without knowing what the prospects will be like in 2010 and what kind of development they will go through. Like you said, one of these signability guys could be the next Arrieta and we would know this by next year....

[TheOtherRipken]

I wouldnt say that the team will drop back into the mid 20's after our Big 3 graduate. We will probably still be middle of the pack around 13-15th. Though we dont have a ton of top end talent, we have an amzing amount of depth with some pretty good top guys still. Mid 20's is similar to what we were back 5-6 years ago, there is no way we sink to that level. Righ now if you took the Big 3 and Snyder out, our system is still better than it had been in the last 12 or so years....

With Mickolio, Bergeson, Berken etc all coming up, I am not sure how much depth we have except for a lot of flyers. This is just my opinion, I know there is talent in the minors, but if the big three get called up along with Reimold, I'm not completely sure we have a player in BA's top 100, although Hobgood would have the best shot.

[QBsILLEST1]

With Mickolio, Bergeson, Berken etc all coming up, I am not sure how much depth we have except for a lot of flyers. This is just my opinion, I know there is talent in the minors, but if the big three get called up along with Reimold, I'm not completely sure we have a player in BA's top 100, although Hobgood would have the best shot.

We have depth behind Berken, Bergesen and Mickolio in the form of Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta.

Behind them is Britton and 3 question marks in Erbe, Patton and Spoone..

behind them is Zagone Drake and Noel.

Behind them is Bundy, Beal and Hobgood

Behind them is Cowan, Wirsh, Henry? , Tolliver? Bush?

(?= unsigned to this date)

That right there is what you consider depth, Erbe wasnt a question mark until this year and will get his stuff back, Id assume just shut him down this year.

Spoone IMO will come back better than Patton, but we'll see. Even if he loses a MPH or 2 hes still in the 90's with a heavy sionking fastball....

[LookinUp]

Thank you for summing up what I have said in different context, maybe it makes more sense to others here in your words. It is just too early to tell and unfair to judge a list in 2010 without knowing what the prospects will be like in 2010 and what kind of development they will go through. Like you said, one of these signability guys could be the next Arrieta and we would know this by next year....

Thanks. The corollary to this is that the unknowns make it equally impossible to predict that we will have a highly rated system at the end of the 2010 season. Just too many unknowns.