Poll: Are you disappointed with the lack of international signings?

[Stotle]

SG I quoted you but this post is not really about your post in particular but rather the line of thinking it represents. I have always had a problem with this line but have not until just now been able to really wrap my head around what the problem was. Here it goes. By not signing players today we are not falling farther behind the Yanks and Bosox, IMO. We may be delaying when we might catch up to them, but they already are the best teams in baseball and really are not getting better by these moves. They are maintaining thier status not really improving it. I can actually make a case that the infastructure being put in place today is more important than the current signings. No matter what any of us think the O's do have a finite amount of resourses and can not make the number of mistakes that the competition can make (talking here about MFY and Bosox). So putting the peices in place to promote successful signings is really the key IMO. It is kind of like the faith Jordan has garnered by showing he is pretty good at handling the draft. It sounds has if the O's really like Sano and atleast might be making and offer. To me it is not the end of the world if he signs elsewhere. What I would be really dissapointed to hear is that we are not making the scouting and development committment in the international arena. Now of course this excuse does not fly forever but I think it still does today.

I agree with most of this. There are diminishing returns once you get up to a certain level in baseball. For example, the Yankees could spend $500million a year, and most likely they are never going to put together a team that will win 135 games. At a certain points, the cost of an additional win is probably too much to be worth it.

Now, that said, there is PLENTY of room for organizations to improve their strength at the minor league level, simply because there are so many slots. For example, there is no reason why the Yankees couldn't (if they wanted) decide to spend $15million in the draft each year and throw a ton of money at signability kids. They'd be bringing in more talent than any other organization and would have more than enough room in the organization to add this talent. The question becomes whether or not the investment is worth the payout. That, of course, has to take into account the fact that immense spending at the amateur draft level could lead to forced changes in how the draft operates. Further, is there an advantage to having more ML-quality players in your system than you'll ever be able to use -- either on your 25-man roster or in trades?

Complex issue that every team, I'm sure, thinks about to varying degrees.

[wickedwitch]

Does anyone really know what revenues are available for signing prospects? There is a recession going on.

Obviously we don't know. But the vast majority of these aren't high-priced players. If we can't afford to spend even $500,000 on this each season, then this franchise is in a lot of trouble.

This is my biggest worry, that PA is willing to spend to sign certain players (like Markakis, thankfully), but won't spend on this stuff. I am not accusing PA of anything, and there is not a bit of evidence of this, but I do wonder. It seems as reasonable as the idea that the FO thinks Sano is the only international free agent worth putting any money into or that the FO thinks we have "enough" talent.

[Sports Guy]

SG I quoted you but this post is not really about your post in particular but rather the line of thinking it represents. I have always had a problem with this line but have not until just now been able to really wrap my head around what the problem was. Here it goes. By not signing players today we are not falling farther behind the Yanks and Bosox, IMO. We may be delaying when we might catch up to them, but they already are the best teams in baseball and really are not getting better by these moves. They are maintaining thier status not really improving it. I can actually make a case that the infastructure being put in place today is more important than the current signings. No matter what any of us think the O's do have a finite amount of resourses and can not make the number of mistakes that the competition can make (talking here about MFY and Bosox). So putting the peices in place to promote successful signings is really the key IMO. It is kind of like the faith Jordan has garnered by showing he is pretty good at handling the draft. It sounds has if the O's really like Sano and atleast might be making and offer. To me it is not the end of the world if he signs elsewhere. What I would be really dissapointed to hear is that we are not making the scouting and development committment in the international arena. Now of course this excuse does not fly forever but I think it still does today.

The idea for those teams is to stay at that consistent level of winning though.

This is how you do that.

[mdterpsrule]

I'm definitely dissapointed if we really don't sign anyone this year, even if it does take time to establish relationships. You would think we could get at least a few guys signed.

But I don't have a problem with us going after the big name guys. I would love to get Sano and think he would be great for the system, but if AM and Stockstill determine he's not worth the money risk then I defer to them.

Ynoa was supposed to be one of the best prospects to come out from LA, and look at him now (From BA):

Michael Ynoa, rhp, Athletics: Speaking of high expectations . . . Ynoa hasn't thrown a pro pitch since signing for a record $4.25 million out of the Dominican Republic and already has made his first trip to the disabled list. We really just want to see him pitch is all.[/Quote]

[Flosman]

It's hard to be patient after following 11 going on 12 straight years of losing baseball. MacPhail has to take that into account at some point. You can ask fans to be patient, but given the fact that we have all these resources from MASN and revenue sharing etc, it's pretty hard to be patient for long when you don't see your club using those resources to get better.

IMO this post in a nutshell is why AM is light years ahead of the prior FOs we have had. He while recognizing that us fans have endured alot is not going to make moves based on the past failures of this organization. He is building an organization and he is doing it from the ground up. It is really embarrassing how horrible the organization had become and I am not talking about having non proforming players. That is a result of a bad organization. The truth is he does not care if you find it hard to be patient.

[Flosman]

The idea for those teams is to stay at that consistent level of winning though.

This is how you do that.

So what you are saying is you should spend money foolishly before you believe you have the sytem in place to evaulate talent properly. Before you say that should be able to be put in the time AM has been here. Let me just say I would think it is harder to actually do the job then simple just reading BA. A fact that I think many on here tend to minimize.

[JTrea81]

IMO this post in a nutshell is why AM is light years ahead of the prior FOs we have had. He while recognizing that us fans have endured alot is not going to make moves based on the past failures of this organization. He is building an organization and he is doing it from the ground up. It is really embarrassing how horrible the organization had become and I am not talking about having non proforming players. That is a result of a bad organization. The truth is he does not care if you find it hard to be patient.

He should, because I'm one of the last die hard fans that's left out there. If he takes too long to get a competitive team on the field, the Orioles fanbase will continue to dwindle and there will be even more Camden green in the stands.

He's had plenty of time to rebuild the ML squad given the financial resources at his disposal IMO. He can keep building the organization up without sacrificing the performance of the ML squad. At some point the ML squad is going to have to win ballgames. and the excuse of "rebuilding" will no longer apply. It's quickly reaching that point...

He's got a nucleus now of talent in Jones, Wieters and Markakis that want to win. We don't want these guys to be converted to a losing mentality like the previous core of Mora, Tejada and Roberts. And if he doesn't put any effort into improving the ML squad soon, that's exactly what will happen.

[Flosman]

He should, because I'm one of the last die hard fans that's left out there. If he takes too long to get a competitive team on the field, the Orioles fanbase will continue to dwindle and there will be even more Camden green in the stands.

He's had plenty of time to rebuild the ML squad given the financial resources at his disposal IMO. He can keep building the organization up without sacrificing the performance of the ML squad. At some point the ML squad is going to have to win ballgames. and the excuse of "rebuilding" will no longer apply. It's quickly reaching that point...

He's got a nucleus now of talent in Jones, Wieters and Markakis that want to win. We don't want these guys to be converted to a losing mentality like the previous core of Mora, Tejada and Roberts. And if he doesn't put any effort into improving the ML squad soon, that's exactly what will happen.

Well do you really think that the ML team is not going to start winning games when Guthrie is legitimately our number 5 starter? I think AM knows we will have to buy some players in the future but Tex showed that the timing in AM's mind for the high price that we would pay was not right. I wanted TEx don't get me wrong, however from a cost benefit view we were going to waste a year or two of his contract because the rest of the club was not ready. You may think that is not the case and we should have bought the pitching also, but this is an area that I agree 100% with AM. TheYanks can't seem to be able to buy a great staff how the heck to you propose we do it?

Finally the point you seem to be missing is I think he is actually giving you what you want, that being a consistant winner. What you fail to recognize is he has actually done this before, successfully. I bet he does it here also. He just understands it is not done overnight or over one or even two offseason's.

[RShack]

IMO this post in a nutshell is why AM is light years ahead of the prior FOs we have had. He while recognizing that us fans have endured alot is not going to make moves based on the past failures of this organization. He is building an organization and he is doing it from the ground up. It is really embarrassing how horrible the organization had become and I am not talking about having non proforming players. That is a result of a bad organization. The truth is he does not care if you find it hard to be patient.

I agree with this.

Here are the two most evident errors (errors IMO, that is) that I see around here:

• The claim that we should be concerned with what BOS and the MFY's do and should judge the O's by that. I think this idea is just plain wrong. The reason it's wrong is that neither BOS or the MFY's can do anything to prevent the O's from building both an organization and a team that is excellent. Nothing. They cannot corner the market on talent because they have only the same number of roster spots as everybody else does, and the number of good players is way, way larger than the number they can accommodate. Nor can they interfere in any meaningful way with the O's rebuilding the ability to grow good players. What matters is what the O's do, not what BOS and the MFY's do. If the O's construct an excellent team based on an excellent organization, BOS and the MFY's are 100% powerless to stop it.

  .

• The claim that AM can should hurry-hurry-hurry-up and make things better by doing X, Y, and Z right now. There are some things you can hurry and some things you cannot. The idea that AM can simply do a bunch of amateur signings and, voila, he will have made things better is naive and way too simplistic. That's not how good organizations get to be good organizations. There are many lessons to be learned about how good, successful organizations become that way, and AFAIK the hurry-hurry-hurry-up philosophy we see here is just magical thinking that ignores those lessons.

I find it particular ironic that some of the people who make these errors are the very same people who desperately wanted the Warehouse to adopt a set of priorities focused on rebuilding the franchise the right way. Now that we appear to have that, with marked progress in several ways, all the sudden they seem to want to return to the days of ineffective knee-jerk approaches based on short-term thinking. So, whatever the Warehouse does, the people in there are evidently wrong no matter who they are or what they do.

[Flosman]

I agree with this.

Here are the two most evident errors (errors IMO, that is) that I see around here:

• The claim that we should be concerned with what BOS and the MFY's do and should judge the O's by that. I think this idea is just plain wrong. The reason it's wrong is that neither BOS or the MFY's can do anything to prevent the O's from building both an organization and a team that is excellent. Nothing. They cannot corner the market on talent because they have only the same number of roster spots as everybody else does, and the number of good players is way, way larger than the number they can accommodate. Nor can they interfere in any meaningful way with the O's rebuilding the ability to grow good players. What matters is what the O's do, not what BOS and the MFY's do. If the O's construct an excellent team based on an excellent organization, BOS and the MFY's are 100% powerless to stop it.

  .

• The claim that AM can should hurry-hurry-hurry-up and make things better by doing X, Y, and Z right now. There are some things you can hurry and some things you cannot. The idea that AM can simply do a bunch of amateur signings and, voila, he will have made things better is naive and way too simplistic. That's not how good organizations get to be good organizations. There are many lessons to be learned about how good, successful organizations become that way, and AFAIK the hurry-hurry-hurry-up philosophy we see here is just magical thinking that ignores those lessons.

I find it particular ironic that some of the people who make these errors are the very same people who desperately wanted the Warehouse to adopt a set of priorities focused on rebuilding the franchise the right way. Now that we appear to have that, with marked progress in several ways, all the sudden they seem to want to return to the days of ineffective knee-jerk approaches based on short-term thinking. So, whatever the Warehouse does, the people in there are evidently wrong no matter who they are or what they do.

This is very well said. I think people choose to not see the changes in the organization. One thing almost all good organizations have in common is the are thoroughly prepared, they do thier homework. We have seen evidence of this that folks choose to ignore. AM seems methodical and he is in his preparation. However he has also acted extremely quick when real opportunities present themselves. To be able to act quickly in those situation means you basically have a book on every organization and really every player in every organization. That is a mark of a great organization, IMO. Do folks here really think the raping of the Mariners happened by accident? Do you think AM's book didn't say that Bavasi was ready to give away the farm? Is it an accident we got the right palyers from the Mariners? Do folks think the same about the Astros? More importantly is anyone saying that ANY FO in Baltimore over the past 10+ years would have done what AM has done over the past two years?

[hoosiers]

The claim that AM can should hurry-hurry-hurry-up and make things better by doing X, Y, and Z right now. There are some things you can hurry and some things you cannot. The idea that AM can simply do a bunch of amateur signings and, voila, he will have made things better is naive and way too simplistic. That's not how good organizations get to be good organizations. There are many lessons to be learned about how good, successful organizations become that way, and AFAIK the hurry-hurry-hurry-up philosophy we see here is just magical thinking that ignores those lessons.

I think a majority would agree that it is not necessary to "hurry-hurry-hurry" and a majority have the patience to wait longer if assured the Os will become a legitimate presence in signing the international talent.

My issue is that the timeline I (and I presume many others) am on is the one outlined by MacPhail.

Now perhaps we are signing many ultra-cheap guys and that is how our FO plans to do this - in fact, the small $ signing bonuses probably provide significant value. It's difficult to imagine becoming a legitimate organization in signing and developing international talent based solely on signing these cheapies. No one else appears to be doing business that way. Most are also signing multiple players in various ranges around $100k, $250k, $500k, etc.

[RShack]

My issue is that the timeline I (and I presume many others) am on is the one outlined by MacPhail.

Now perhaps we are signing many ultra-cheap guys and that is how our FO plans to do this - in fact, the small $ signing bonuses probably provide significant value. It's difficult to imagine becoming a legitimate organization in signing and developing international talent based solely on signing these cheapies. No one else appears to be doing business that way. Most are also signing multiple players in various ranges around $100k, $250k, $500k, etc.

Please refresh my memory about the timeline AM established for the O's developing into a serious presence in Latin America.

I'm not being a smart-ass, I just don't recall exactly what he said or exactly when he said it...

[TonySoprano]

To an extent, it does matter what Boston and New York does. It all goes to how you measure improvement. One could do it in a vacuum, where on paper the team has improved, statistically speaking. The expression goes, these games aren't played on paper.

However, if Boston and New York make more improvements than Baltimore, we then have taken one step forward and two back. The key then is how competitive we are in the league and the division, and that's ultimately measured in wins and losses.

[bigbird]

Just another chance to add talent to the system for nothing but cold hard cash and it looks like we're putting up another goose egg. This has been my issue with AM. With the exception of a few winter trades he doesn't do much to improve the club. You can't stay incative for 8 months and expect to keep pace with contending teams.

[BaltimoreTerp]

This has been my issue with AM.

No it isn't, but you go ahead and keep on trying to convince everyone