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incubus

By incubus
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RShack Hangout Grand Counsel

RShack

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Posted
I didn't see it. You mean the great Papelbon blew a save? Say it ain't so Jonathan. :clap3:

There are very few players for whom I have animosity, but he's one of them. I wish Vlad's hit had gone right through his O-lips and down his throat.

This brings up an interesting scenario. There was a rumor when they acquired Wagner that if he did well they would possibly look to (1) extend him, and then (2) move Papelbon via trade.

There's rumors about lots of stuff. I can't believe Theo would get rid of a guy like Papelbon so he can rely on a closer who's gonna be almost 40...

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Shopay Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Shopay

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Posted
I didn't see it. You mean the great Papelbon blew a save? Say it ain't so Jonathan. :clap3:

This brings up an interesting scenario. There was a rumor when they acquired Wagner that if he did well they would possibly look to (1) extend him, and then (2) move Papelbon via trade.

Boston future's closer, if not Papelbon, is Bard, IMO. I would imagine that Wagner would stay in the set-up role.

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RShack Hangout Grand Counsel

RShack

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Think outside the box for a minute.

The question with Papelbon has always been how long will his arm last before it falls apart?

He has shown a few signs the last couple of seasons that his talent/arm may be beginning to erode, if ever so slightly. His BB-Rate was triple this year to what it was last year, for instance. His LD% went up for the second straight season, for instance. His FB% went from 31% last year to 52% this year, for instance. The effectiveness of his fastball declined for the second straight season, for instance. Opposing batters chased fewer pitches outside of the strike zone than they ever have before, for instance. The contact rate on his pitches went up for the second straight season, for instance.

He's approaching his last two years of arbitration, I believe, which means that he's about to become very expensive.

The team that acquires him will have his services for at least two years, which means that his trade value will likely never be higher than it will be this offseason.

Maybe there's an NL team that feels it is a closer away from contending next season that just so happens to have in its minor league system what the Red Sox feel they could use - say good young pitching or maybe a shortstop of the future (just to throw a position out there).

So they look at all those things and trade Papelbon to make up for the loss of talent in the Martinez and whoever trades in July and August. After doing that they sign Wagner as the bridge to Bard who would then either take over as closer in 2011 or 2012.

I could definitely see them moving Papelbon this offseason.

Very nicely done. You've changed how I look at it.

I like it when somebody changes my mind ;-)

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

Posted
Posted
Think outside the box for a minute.

The question with Papelbon has always been how long will his arm last before it falls apart?

He has shown a few signs the last couple of seasons that his talent/arm may be beginning to erode, if ever so slightly. His BB-Rate was triple this year to what it was last year, for instance. His LD% went up for the second straight season, for instance. His FB% went from 31% last year to 52% this year, for instance. The effectiveness of his fastball declined for the second straight season, for instance. Opposing batters chased fewer pitches outside of the strike zone than they ever have before, for instance. The contact rate on his pitches went up for the second straight season, for instance.

He's approaching his last two years of arbitration, I believe, which means that he's about to become very expensive.

The team that acquires him will have his services for at least two years, which means that his trade value will likely never be higher than it will be this offseason.

Maybe there's an NL team that feels it is a closer away from contending next season that just so happens to have in its minor league system what the Red Sox feel they could use - say good young pitching or maybe a shortstop of the future (just to throw a position out there).

So they look at all those things and trade Papelbon to make up for the loss of talent in the Martinez and whoever trades in July and August. After doing that they sign Wagner as the bridge to Bard who would then either take over as closer in 2011 or 2012.

I could definitely see them moving Papelbon this offseason.

Throw in the fact that Epstein isn't afraid to deal a fan favorite and you have the makings of an interesting, and likely eventful, offseason in Beantown.

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