Snyder - "I WANT to be the every day first baseman"

[Lucky Jim]

You are right..I agree that those are bad examples.

I also agree that we need more talent and much better production out of the CI spots...But you where you are incorrect is saying that those needs to be addressed tomorrow...That's just not right.

The Orioles have to see what Snyder and Bell can do for them. You can't block them...Now, you can trade them and go from there but they shouldn't be dealt, especially Bell, for a 1-2 year option.

You've missed the point. Which is...wait for it....

So now that you've started down this slippery slope, you've opened the door to the fact that no team needs any particular production from any particular position to contend or win. Good, it's about time.

...this.

BTW, the 1983 Orioles score 799 runs. With sub-.700 OPS at C, 2B, CF and 3B.

[TiredofLosing20]

To me, some things need to happen this offseason:

1) Scott needs to be dealt...Not because he sucks or anything like that but because we need his roster spot and his at bats for other players.

2) Need to obtain a SS..Whether it be an immediate replacement or a long term one, a SS should be obtained.

3) They need to obtain a solid starter....Someone on a short term deal(unless you can get Lackey which ain't happening) that has good upside and can eat innings.

4) Look to move Guthrie...He has value and should be able to get us another piece.

5) Be prepared to go with a rotation of Matusz, Tillman, FA pickup or trade, BB and Arrieta by May 1....I am fine with Koji being in the rotation as well but I don't think the Orioles are going to do that.

6) Obtain a Nick Johnson/Delgado type guy for first....A low risk/high reward type guy that could easily be dealt in July if Snyder shows he is ready to take over full time.

7) Scour the waiver wire and minor leagues to find a Scott Moore type guy...A platoon guy for third base...Someone who can field and hit a little...Platoon that guy with Wiggy for the first month or 2 of the season...Now, if Moore himself is ready for ST and looks good, then use him. If Bell continues to mash AFL pitching and goes to ST and impresses, maybe you bring him up by mid to late April. In other words, the guy you bring in is used as part of a 3 way competition. I also don't have an issue with handing out a 1 year deal to a guy like Glaus, Beltre, Crede or Aki and thus let Bell get a few months under his belt in AAA.

8) By the AS break, assuming health and good performance, Bell and Snyder should be in the lineup practically everyday....Idea is to get them at least 200 ML at bats this year.

9) Obtain one young power arm for the pen...Look for high K guys that get groundballs if possible....Look to get that guy in a Scott deal. Medlen is a guy high up on my list, albeit he isn't a GB pitcher.

10) In this scenario, I think Ray is looking for a new job or is traded and Albers has an option left I believe...He has a chance to make the team but it will be tough.

My thoughts

1 - I can go with this I guess but I am not willing to simply dump him for anything. We need to get some return.

2 - sorta. I think we need to get a prospect, I don't think we need to necessarily replace Izturis this year.

3/4 - Not sure I understand these 2 "needs" It appears to me that we are just trading a guy in #4 and then asking for his replacement in #3

5 - Agreed

6/7/8 - I think I am pretty much about Bell and Snyder at this point. I am willing to go with Aubrey/Hughes as our backup plan to Snyder for 2010. I think I am ok with Wiggington or the waiver wire guy at third until Bell is deemed ready. Not sure what Delgado and Glaus gives you and I am not as certain they are easily dealt at the deadline. If I had to choose I would be more inclined to go with Glaus as we are going to have to sign some one outside the organization at 3b if we don't think Bell will be ready on OD (which I think is a fair assumption)

9 - Can anyone disagree with this one?

[DrungoHazewood]

And what happens if he has more of an Adam Jones like first year which is very probable given his struggles in AAA IMO:

.270/.311/.400/.711

Then what do you do? You want to compete in 2011 and that's not going to cut it at 1B obviously.

Frankly I think this AFL performance is a great development for Snyder's trade value. He's getting a lot of attention now and could be seen as a bigger part of a trade package for a premium bat because of his AFL performance.

Bizarre. You think that Snyder is probably not going to be a piece of the future, but you also think that bumbling MacPhail can convince another team that this dead-end guy should be a piece of their future. In exchange for a premium talent, I'm sure.

[Sports Guy]

The idea behind dealing Guthrie now and then replacing him with someone who may not be that much better, if better at all, is because Guthrie could get worse or stay above a 5 ERA(see 1970's latest article).

But right now, his actual stats say he was a #2 type guy for 2 years and a #4 for this year and got to the 200 IP mark.

That has value..Plus, he is still cheap and under control for a while...So, take advantage of that now and go get the player(s) you need and then replace him with one of the several guys out there that could do the same job or better as JG.

[Enjoy Terror]

Bizarre. You think that Snyder is probably not going to be a piece of the future, but you also think that bumbling MacPhail can convince another team that this dead-end guy should be a piece of their future. In exchange for a premium talent, I'm sure.

But isn't that sort of what happened with Pie/Olson?

[Sports Guy]

You've missed the point. Which is...wait for it....

...this.

BTW, the 1983 Orioles score 799 runs. With sub-.700 OPS at C, 2B, CF and 3B.

I agree with Drungo but bringing up examples of how things were 30 years ago, when the game was much different, doesn't really hold that much water now.

Plus, financially things are different in our division than before.

We clearly need more production out of our CIers but we have time to wait and see that because of Snyder and Bell.

[JTrea81]

So now that you've started down this slippery slope, you've opened the door to the fact that no team needs any particular production from any particular position to contend or win. Good, it's about time.

They don't need one particular position to produce a certain amount, I will agree, but the generic mold of AL teams is to have power and production at the corners in both the IF and OF and speed and defense up the middle at 2B, SS and CF.

It's easier to find players that fit the mold than ones that don't - power hitting SS for example - so that you can distribute the production accordingly.

Putting a 15-20 HR guy at 1B just means that you have to get more performance out of your other positions and gives you less cushion for a down year or an injury at one of your other production positions IMO.

It's just putting more stress on a "everything has to go right to get to the playoffs" scenario.

[Enjoy Terror]

We clearly need more production out of our CIers but we don't have time to wait and see that because of Snyder and Bell.

You got a hot date or something?

[Lucky Jim]

They don't need one particular position to produce a certain amount, I will agree, but the generic mold of AL teams is to have power and production at the corners in both the IF and OF and speed and defense up the middle at 2B, SS and CF.

It's easier to find players that fit the mold than ones that don't - power hitting SS for example - so that you can distribute the production accordingly.

Putting a 15-20 HR guy at 1B just means that you have to get more performance out of your other positions and gives you less cushion for a down year or an injury at one of your other production positions IMO.

It's just putting more stress on a "everything has to go right to get to the playoffs" scenario.

Except that we're likely to get above well-average production from C. And there's a strong chance of well-above average production from CF. Not to mention, LF and RF.

[Frobby]

And what happens if he has more of an Adam Jones like first year which is very probable given his struggles in AAA IMO:

.270/.311/.400/.711

Then what do you do? You want to compete in 2011 and that's not going to cut it at 1B obviously.

Then I think about adjusting my strategy. But that's kind of the point: now I know a lot more. I'm still seeing 2010 as a season to try to find some things out.

I've been thinking a bit about some of the guys who were contemporaries of Markakis, like Lastings Milledge and Adam Lind. All three were highly rated after the 2005 season. Markakis stuggled for 3 months but has been solid to excellent ever since. Milledge shows signs of potential but has never really put it together so far. Lind was unable to earn a full time major league job from 2006-08, and this year just exploded, having a season better than Markakis' best. You never really know the flight paths of young prospects. Who would you rather have now, Markakis or Lind? It's hard to say.

The Jays have another young guy, Travis Snider, whose numbers last year weren't that impressive (.748 OPS). But I will tell you what, I've seen him, and there's no way I'd be giving up on that guy. I want to see enough of Snyder to figure out if he fits in that category or not.

[Mackus]

Except that we're likely to get above well-average production from C. And there's a strong chance of well-above average production from CF. Not to mention, LF and RF.

I think "well above average" production from C is going to be a huge understatement.

In fact, I think we're likely to get average-1B production from C. We therefore could get average-C production from 1B and break completely even.

[TiredofLosing20]

If you noticed though there is a "good" established player at at least one of those corner spots for each playoff team.

How many of those guys were "good" established players in their rookie year?

My point being it takes time (and patience) to deterimine if you have "good" established players. Once we make a determination that our young guys are not going to be good established players than we need to adapt. The success of this rebuilding plan is entirely dependent on patience and the ability to determine which players are going to be good established players and which areas we are going to have to find outside the organization. It is not dependent on winning X amount of games in 2010 and assuming that our young players are not going to eventually be good established players if given some time to do so, It is also not dependent on spending upwards of $250 million this offseason on Holliday/Lackey/Figgins. The success in this rebuilding is based LARGELY on the guys we already have here.

[Hank Scorpio]

Also, James Loney is a "good established player"? OPS of 772 and 756 the past two years at 1B?

Funny how other teams' promising young players are "established" meaning guaranteed to produce and our promising young players are "unproven" meaning guaranteed to fail.

O.P.P. baby.

The man loves him some other people's players.

[DrungoHazewood]

But isn't that sort of what happened with Pie/Olson?

No. Pie was out of options, out of favor, had performed poorly in the majors and was blocked. Olson was basically that, too, just with less upside.

Trea suggests that Snyder is going to be a poor first baseman in the majors, but that his AFL performance would convince someone otherwise and fool them into taking him as a big part of a trade for the mythical established premium player.

[Lucky Jim]

I think "well above average" production from C is going to be a huge understatement.

In fact, I think we're likely to get average-1B production from C. We therefore could get average-C production from 1B and break completely even.

Agree 100%.