Snyder - "I WANT to be the every day first baseman"

[Lucky Jim]

2) Need to obtain a SS..Whether it be an immediate replacement or a long term one, a SS should be obtained.

I like your plan overall but disagree here. I see no need for a short-term replacement. As Gordo pointed out in another thread, there are very few SS who offer anything above a UZR/150 of 5 and an OPS of .750. We don't actually lose that much with Izturis at SS relative to the rest of the league. And what we get as a replacement is necessarily going to be expensive. I don't see the need short-term.

[Sports Guy]

It's having unproven players at primary offensive positions that is the problem.

You don't see many contending teams have unproven players at both 1B and 3B.

Usually there is an established bat at one or both of those positions.

Take this year's playoff teams for example.

PHI: Howard/Feliz

STL:Pujols/DeRosa

LAD:Loney/Blake

COL:Helton/Atkins

BOS: Youkilis/Lowell

NYY: Teixeira/ARod

LAA: Morales/Figgins

MIN: (Morneau)Cuddyer/Crede

But not every team gets the same production out of CF, C and 2nd that we do.

[Mackus]

I like your plan overall but disagree here. I see no need for a short-term replacement. As Gordo pointed out in another thread, there are very few SS who offer anything above a UZR/150 of 5 and an OPS of .750. We don't actually lose that much with Izturis at SS relative to the rest of the league. And what we get as a replacement is necessarily going to be expensive. I don't see the need short-term.

I agree, if its just a one-year upgrade, I'd use the resources elsewhere. Although if its more of a 2-year stopgap as Izturis was supposed to be, I'd be more inclined.

[ejf1025]

I like your plan overall but disagree here. I see no need for a short-term replacement. As Gordo pointed out in another thread, there are very few SS who offer anything above a UZR/150 of 5 and an OPS of .750. We don't actually lose that much with Izturis at SS relative to the rest of the league. And what we get as a replacement is necessarily going to be expensive. I don't see the need short-term.

I think he means a long-term replacement immediately...like a Hardy who would take over now. Not another stop-gap player similar to Izturis.

The other option would be a long-term replacement that would be in the minors...a AA-AAA prospect that could take over in 2011.

[Sports Guy]

Pretty good plan, SG. I'd like to see Bell and Snyder get more than 200 AB, though. More like 300-350. Of course, they have to earn them.

I want them to get over 300 as well but it depends on how quickly they get brought up because we know the Orioles will bench them against tough pitchers and things like that.

[Sports Guy]

I like your plan overall but disagree here. I see no need for a short-term replacement. As Gordo pointed out in another thread, there are very few SS who offer anything above a UZR/150 of 5 and an OPS of .750. We don't actually lose that much with Izturis at SS relative to the rest of the league. And what we get as a replacement is necessarily going to be expensive. I don't see the need short-term.

Izturis is awful...There are enough possibilities out there of guys currently in the majors or ML ready that Izzy could easily be replaced.

[alexei606]

Need to highlight the fact that you emphazise "established" and never once mention "good". Atkins was terrible, Feliz can't hit, DeRosa is 34 and had a .752 OPS, Lowell might have been the worst defensive player in MLB, Crede hit .225 and is only in the majors because of his glove, and Morales was coming off a season where he hit .213 with 3 homers and spent most of the year in Salt Lake City.

The Orioles will be fine without an established player at every position. I'm sure every one of those teams would have been more than happy to bench a Crede or a Atkins if they had a guy like Bell or Snyder knocking on the door.

Actually, Tracy benched their young 3B, Ian Stewart for Atkins in the NLDS. Stewart, a former #1 pick and highly regarded prospect throughout his MiL career, hit for power, but not average and had a lot of Ks. He has more power, more speed and better contact and patience (though both the last two are quite low) than Bell.

[Lucky Jim]

Izturis is awful...There are enough possibilities out there of guys currently in the majors or ML ready that Izzy could easily be replaced.

Izturis was worth 1.3 Wins and 5.6m in 114 games. Which pro-rates to something like 1.7 wins and 7m.

All for a price of $2m.

Yeah, he's really the core of our worries.

I've noted we need a long-term replacement. Short-term, he's clearly not the end of the world.

[Mackus]

Izturis is awful...There are enough possibilities out there of guys currently in the majors or ML ready that Izzy could easily be replaced.

He's obviously not awful.

He's an awful hitter, that's true.

[Lucky Jim]

He's obviously not awful.

He's an awful hitter, that's true.

A WAR of 1.7 over a full season would have put him .2 behind Markakis.

[Sports Guy]

He's obviously not awful.

He's an awful hitter, that's true.

If he has an inconsistencies defensively, as he had early this year and has had in his career, he isn't worth anything.

He should be replaced...He isn't good and it is one area where their seems to be good talent available and it is the biggest hole in the organization.

So yes, he needs to be replaced...but he won't be.

[Ruzious]

Actually, Tracy benched their young 3B, Ian Stewart for Atkins in the NLDS. Stewart, a former #1 pick and highly regarded prospect throughout his MiL career, hit for power, but not average and had a lot of Ks. He has more power, more speed and better contact and patience (though both the last two are quite low) than Bell.

Plech. Even with his low batting average, Stewart hit far better than Atkins last year. And even with his "benching", Stewart played a lot more than Atkins after the all-star break.

[Sports Guy]

A WAR of 1.7 over a full season would have put him .2 behind Markakis.

Or he stays healthy over the course of a full season, plays everyday and wears down enough that it effects his range and he isn't worth a full win.

[Mackus]

A WAR of 1.7 over a full season would have put him .2 behind Markakis.

Yeah, the positional adjustment is huge for Izturis.

Although, every SS would get that positional adjustment. He's pretty much a league average SS. The positional adjustment is 7.5 runs over a full season (150 games). So basically if you take that into account, he's a 1.0 WARSS. And since replacement is values at 20 runs per 600 PAs, he's essentially a -1.0 WAASS (wins above average short stop). That's a rough calculation obviously, but he's a tad below league average at SS. If we can upgrade without it costing too much obviously we should look at it, but he's not a major problem by any stretch of the imagination. Especially not at his salary.

[Lucky Jim]

If he has an inconsistencies defensively, as he had early this year and has had in his career, he isn't worth anything.

He should be replaced...He isn't good and it is one area where their seems to be good talent available and it is the biggest hole in the organization.

So yes, he needs to be replaced...but he won't be.

He has put up UZRs of 9+ and 10+ over the last two years. Defensive inconsistencies are not a concern. Outside of extreme youth, he only had down years when he was injured, had surgery, and first came back. A three year blip. Before that he was exceptional (UZR of 12+) and the last two years he has been elite (UZR of nearly 10 on average).

Let's not manufacture arguments.