Do we overrate our pitching prospects' chances of success?

[MiLFanatic]

Who has been lumping them together? Last spring, Bergesen and Hernandez were invited to spring training; Berken was not. Bergesen and Hernandez began the year in AAA; Berken began the year in AA. A combination of circumstances led to Berken getting to the majors two days before Hernandez, and ending up with more innings, but it had nothing to do with Berken's ranking among the prospects.

That said, to the extent Bergesen and Berken were considered fairly comparable going into last season, that was a matter of underrating Bergesen, not overrating Berken.

Rankings most especially is where they were lumped together. Its just the way places rank pitchers from the same team when they post similar numbers and have on the surface what seems to be similar stuff. Honestly, I don't think Bergesen was THAT underrated. Without a slow curveball, would he have had the same success?

Furthermore, all 3 of Hernandez, Berken and Bergy were rated in the same tier. Hernandez, even though didn't perform greatly, IMO doesn't belong in the same tier as Berken. He has better stuff and a higher ceiling. Bergesen while havign average stuff has good GB tendencies to go along with great pitchability which IMO also puts him in a different tier than Berken. So was DH and Bergy both underrated(with Bergy underrated to an even further extent)?

[Frobby]

Rankings most especially is where they were lumped together. Its just the way places rank pitchers from the same team when they post similar numbers and have on the surface what seems to be similar stuff. Honestly, I don't think Bergesen was THAT underrated. Without a slow curveball, would he have had the same success?

Furthermore, all 3 of Hernandez, Berken and Bergy were rated in the same tier. Hernandez, even though didn't perform greatly, IMO doesn't belong in the same tier as Berken. He has better stuff and a higher ceiling. Bergesen while havign average stuff has good GB tendencies to go along with great pitchability which IMO also puts him in a different tier than Berken. So was DH and Bergy both underrated(with Bergy underrated to an even further extent)?

What do you mean by "the same tier?" Hernandez was ranked 12th on OH last year, and he was in the top 10 on a couple of lists. Bergesen was ranked 18th, Berken 21st on OH. To me, when a guy is ranked 21st that's a sign that he's pretty much a longshot to have a lengthy major league career (sorry about that, L.J. Hoes). So, I can't say that putting Berken at 21 was overrating him. On the other hand, in hindsight, 18 for Bergesen was underrating him (though he definitely did some things over the winter and in the spring to come into 2009 an improved pitcher compared to what he was when the 2008 season ended).

I guess my main point is that I don't know any poster who thinks Berken is likely to have a long, successful major league career. Obviously it could happen, if he can make some improvments, but his odds ar nowhere near as good as Bergesen's, nor are they as good as Hernandez's (though DH has some serious improvements he needs to make, as well). So I think your comment that the three are often lumped together is inaccurate. We all understand what the pecking order is among the three.