The Curious Case of Nick Markakis

[Old#5fan]

I have an observation that is difficult to quantify with numbers. I believe Nick has become somewhat predictable at the plate, and the pitchers took advantage of that in 2009. For instance, Nick will almost never swing at a first pitch, even one right down the middle. Pitchers have figured this out and are throwing him a ton of first pitch strikes. The result is he bats from behind in the count quite often. I got frustrated at times last year watching Nick pass up a fastball down the middle on strike one, and then swinging at a much tougher pitch to hit in a disadvangeous count. I know Nick likes to see some pitches before he hacks, but I think he needs to be a bit less predictable in his pattern, sort of like what BRob has been able to do. BRob is a patient hitter, but he goes up there hacking often enough to keep pitchers honest on strike one.

Wasn't this exactly how Wade Boggs hit? He seldom if ever swung on the first pitch as I recall. I also don't recall him having much problem hitting lefties either. So if your argument is this is a bad approach for a great hitter, I disagree. It however may well be a bad approach for someone who is not a great hitter, that I would agree. So in essence you seem to be inferring that NM is not a great hitter eh?

:scratchchinhmm:

[Steel Curtain]

Wasn't this exactly how Wade Boggs hit? He seldom if ever swung on the first pitch as I recall. I also don't recall him having much problem hitting lefties either. So if your argument is this is a bad approach for a great hitter, I disagree. It however may well be a bad approach for someone who is not a great hitter, that I would agree. So in essence you seem to be inferring that NM is not a great hitter eh?

:scratchchinhmm:

You sure like to derail some threads.

[theobird]

Without some serious RH production I think you can expect as many lefties this year.:cussing:

This is exactly why he saw so many Lefties last year. The word is out that the O's as a team don't do well against LH pitching. Hopefully that will change this year, but a lot will depend on how well Atkins does. He has a history of hitting LHers well, so it should help. Jones does not hit LHers particularly well, and hopefully that changes as well. An addition like Miggy would help. It really isn't a secret as to why the Orioles went into this offseason specifically looking to get some RH hitting help.

[Lucky Jim]

Wasn't this exactly how Wade Boggs hit? He seldom if ever swung on the first pitch as I recall. I also don't recall him having much problem hitting lefties either. So if your argument is this is a bad approach for a great hitter, I disagree. It however may well be a bad approach for someone who is not a great hitter, that I would agree. So in essence you seem to be inferring that NM is not a great hitter eh?

:scratchchinhmm:

Inconceivable.

[Mackus]

In addition to only having a career OPS vs LHP of .761 (or 85% of his career OPS versus RHP), Boggs had a sub-.700 OPS versus LHPs seven times during his 18-year career.

Markakis has a career .751 OPS versus LHP (also 85% of his career OPS versus RHP) and has been below .700 only once out of four seasons.

But he remembered it differently, therefore it makes it true!

All that matters is what you think happened. What actually happened is meaningless.

[Lucky Jim]

In addition to only having a career OPS vs LHP of .761 (or 85% of his career OPS versus RHP), Boggs had a sub-.700 OPS versus LHPs seven times during his 18-year career.

Markakis has a career .751 OPS versus LHP (also 85% of his career OPS versus RHP) and has been below .700 only once out of four seasons.

But he remembered it differently, therefore it makes it true!

All that matters is what you think happened. What actually happened is meaningless.

To be fair, he's not talking about hitting against LHP here, he's talking about taking the first pitch.

Boggs had an .862 OPS for his career on the first pitch from 1988 on. I don't have the data from before. In 1990, at 32, he put up a .624 OPS on the 1st pitch.

[Mackus]

To be fair, he's not talking about hitting against LHP here, he's talking about taking the first pitch.

Thanks to the Total Ignore I didn't know for certain who was actually posting and had no idea what they were posting about.

Pretty good guess, though, huh?

[Lucky Jim]

Thanks to the Total Ignore I didn't know for certain who was actually posting and had no idea what they were posting about.

Pretty good guess, though, huh?

I can't get it to work.

[Old#5fan]

To be fair, he's not talking about hitting against LHP here, he's talking about taking the first pitch.

Boggs had an .862 OPS for his career on the first pitch from 1988 on. I don't have the data from before. In 1990, at 32, he put up a .624 OPS on the 1st pitch.

Right, and I know Frobby is old enough to remember seeing Boggs in action and that was his M.O.

[Mackus]

I can't get it to work.

Are you using Firefox? Check the thread in the Hangout section. It makes this place much more fun.

[Old#5fan]

Thanks to the Total Ignore I didn't know for certain who was actually posting and had no idea what they were posting about.

Pretty good guess, though, huh?

Unlike you I don't have to guess at how Wade Boggs hit, I know how he hit as I watched him for years. There are some advantages to being older although you wouldn't know it the way some of you here are so disrespectful of people who have been there and seen it.

[Lucky Jim]

Right, and I know Frobby is old enough to remember seeing Boggs in action and that was his M.O.

Your point is still ridiculous, however. Pointing out that Boggs was a good hitter who generally took the first pitch means nothing with regard to Nick. Literally nothing.

[Hank Scorpio]

You're all wrong.

The obvious answers are these:

Got married + had a kid = Performance decline.

[SilentJames]

Wasn't this exactly how Wade Boggs hit? He seldom if ever swung on the first pitch as I recall. I also don't recall him having much problem hitting lefties either. So if your argument is this is a bad approach for a great hitter, I disagree. It however may well be a bad approach for someone who is not a great hitter, that I would agree. So in essence you seem to be inferring that NM is not a great hitter eh?

:scratchchinhmm:

Boggs had plenty of trouble with lefties

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=boggswa01&year=Career&t=b#plato

OPS over 100 points lower against lefties. Both have similar troubles against left-handed pitchers.

[SteveA]

The only thing I can conceive of is that the Orioles emphasize a different approach for different lineup slots, but I'm skeptical since that's, well... stupid.

What if it's not a case of the O's emphasizing it, specifically, but a hundred plus years of conventional baseball wisdom having ingrained those roles. Read old#5fan's post in this thread....he details what baseball conventional wisdom has said FOREVER. Leadoff man should get on base. #2 hitter should hit for average and should be able to advance the runner by hitting behind him, having good "bat control" skills moreso than home run power. #3 should be a great overall hitter with average, onbase, and power. #4 should be able to hit the ball out of the park, etc. Old#5fan didn't make that stuff up...he was taught it by his coaches when he was a kid and they were probably taught it by their coaches when they were kids.

Now you can say that modern statistical research has shown that a lot of that is very unimportant, lost in the noise, just put your best OPSs higher in the order and you'll do fine. But that certainly hasn't permeated baseball top to bottom, and I mean minor league, college, high school, little league. You don't think most little league coaches still aren't constructing lineups the same way they have been for years? You think Nick Markakis was reading the Bill James Handbook in middle school and high school? No, he wasn't observing the game from the outside and studying the latest trends in statistical analysis, he was absorbing what he knows about the game from coaches and uncles and older players and his Dad while actually playing the game....and probably absorbing the same conventional wisdom that has been passed down from generation to generation.

So it wouldn't surprise me that a batter would bring a certain mental approach to the plate depending on where he is in the order. Batting #3 or #4, a player might feel pressure to produce extrabase hits and RBIs. Now whether a player allows that pressure to affect them or not is probably dependent on the particular player's psyche and makeup, but I could certainly see them feeling more pressure in that spot.

Meanwhile, at #2, the hundred year old conventional wisdom says hit behind the runner, put the ball in play, etc. Someone might not put as much pressure on himself in this type of situation, might not grip the bat as tightly, might not swing as hard, might think more about making contact than hitting the ball 400 feet. And not only will this approach help you hit for a better average, paradoxically it might actually help you hit for more power too....people trying to hard, gripping the bat too tightly, and overswinging actually will wind up with fewer extrabase hits.

So I'm not willing to dismiss out of hand that someone who has spent their life playing baseball and absorbing the conventional wisdom might take a different approach batting 2nd than 3rd/4th. I can't say that's the case with Nick, but I'm certainly not going to dismiss the possibility as absurd unlikely notion.