Post Article: "Striking Out Pythagoras"

[Frobby]

Nice article about how the Diamondbacks are 20 games over .500 despite being outscored by their opponents.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/25/AR2007092502515.html

So, there's this guy, name of Pythagoras, who's been going around bad-mouthing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Says they're a fluke, that they should have a losing record -- that, matter of fact, they should be scratching and clawing just to stay out of last place, instead of preparing to clinch the National League West title. Well, word has gotten back to the Diamondbacks about this character, and let's just say if they came across him, they'd be liable to punch him in the hypotenuse.

"Pythagoras?" said rookie center fielder Chris Young, when apprised of the verbal potshots. At age 23, Young is not that far removed from 10th-grade algebra. "You mean like the Pythagorean Theorem?"

Precisely. That's the guy.

Now, if you're getting confused as to what Pythagoras, a sixth-century B.C. Greek philosopher best known for inventing the theorem showing the relationship between the lengths of the sides of a triangle, has to do with the Diamondbacks, follow along closely:

Several years ago, Bill James, the noted statistician and founder of the modern sabermetric movement, developed a formula showing the correlation between a team's winning percentage and its ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. Because it involved math similar to that of Pythagoras's formula, he dubbed the product the "Pythagorean winning percentage" -- which, in a nutshell, equals a team's runs squared divided by the square of its runs plus the square of its runs allowed.

And because the Diamondbacks, despite being 20 games above .500 (88-68) entering Tuesday night's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, actually have been outscored by their opponents by 14 runs this season -- for reasons we will attempt to explain later -- their Pythagorean winning percentage (.487) and their actual winning percentage (.564) are at odds with each other in a way rarely seen in history.

"It just shows," Young said, "you can't put this game into a math equation."

[rolliefingers]

"I enjoy proving all the stats guys wrong," said rookie third baseman Mark Reynolds. "It's fun to read about how we should be a last-place team. I guess even Pythagoras can be wrong sometimes."

Actually, isn't this kind of the exception that proves the rule? The Diamondbacks succeeding despite a negative run differential doesn't prove James's theory wrong - it just shows that THIS team happened to beat the staggering odds.

[rolliefingers]

By tossing his lousy mop-up men into blowouts while saving his best relievers for high-leverage situations, (Melvin) permits the Diamondbacks to absorb ugly losses while winning a greater proportion of close games.

What's that? High-leverage situation? That sounds suspiciously like something Bill James might say!

[Frobby]

By tossing his lousy mop-up men into blowouts while saving his best relievers for high-leverage situations, (Melvin) permits the Diamondbacks to absorb ugly losses while winning a greater proportion of close games.

That's what Trembley tried to do back on August 22 in the 30-3 game that was the first of a twin-bill. Problem was, Hoey blew the high-leverage situation in the 8th inning of game 2 and we got the worst of both worlds.

[Fan4Life]

By tossing his lousy mop-up men into blowouts while saving his best relievers for high-leverage situations, (Melvin) permits the Diamondbacks to absorb ugly losses while winning a greater proportion of close games.

I'd like to see more managers do this and render the stat useless.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I was really worried about that article based on thsoe quotes pulled from it, but it actually seems to provide a very good explaination both of what Pythagorian winning percentage is and what it means.

Hopefully the front office in Arizona isn't getting too big a head to ignore it, though, because "good luck" (and good bullpens) can turn around quickly.

[rolliefingers]

That's what Trembley tried to do back on August 22 in the 30-3 game that was the first of a twin-bill. Problem was, Hoey blew the high-leverage situation in the 8th inning of game 2 and we got the worst of both worlds.

Absolutely. As awful as that game was - and I was there, front row - at least the manager wasn't to blame.