Clearest Indication Yet That Bedard Is a Goner

[Frobby]

Source - The Sun, Aug 7,2007

Thanks for posting this. I either had forgotten about it, or somehow missed it.

I think MacPhail should sit down with Bedard and Pieper and have a frank discussion of the whole situation, then decide if Bedard wants to be here and whether there is a long term deal that makes sense for both sides. I think it's a tricky decision and its the most important one of the whole offseason. Therefore, MacPhail should get right on it as soon as possible after the end of the season.

[davearm]

Four.

Same list, 1980-present:

HEIGHT BETWEEN 71 AND 73WEIGHT BETWEEN 170 AND 200STRIKEOUTS                      SO     1    Greg Maddux                3169   2    David Cone                 2668   3    Tom Glavine                2481   4    Fernando Valenzuela        2074   5    Jamie Moyer                1992   6    Kenny Rogers               1850   7    Jeff Fassero               1643   8    Dave Stieb                 1617   9    Jose Rijo                  1606   10   Doug Drabek                1594   11   Jimmy Key                  1538   12   Kevin Tapani               1482   13   Bartolo Colon              1466   14   Floyd Bannister            1402   15   Woody Williams             1379   16   Pete Harnisch              1368   17   Mario Soto                 1360   T18  Wilson Alvarez             1330   T18  Mike Boddicker             1330   20   Mark Gardner               1256   

Mostly "compilers" on that list, IMO.

Guys like Maddux and Glavine are not considered strikeout pitchers, and of course Jamie Moyer's presence on the list throws up a huge red flag.

I dunno where you're getting your data, or how difficult these queries are, but the analysis I'd do is:

A) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present (20 years) with >400 IP and K/9 rates >8 (or pick other IP and K/9 cutpoints).

B) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present within your height/weight criteria with >400 IP and K/9 rates >8.

C) Take the ratio of B:A

D) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present (20 years) with >400 IP.

E) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present within your height/weight criteria with >400 IP.

F) Take the ratio of E: D

G) Compare C) to F) to see how the frequency of small guys in the "strikeout" starting pitcher population compares to the the frequency of small guys in the general starting pitcher population.

If you point me to your source, I'll give it a shot.

[tywright]

Bedard needs to be traded. There is no way the Orioles can compete with the likes of Boston or another team when it comes to an open market on Bedard. It's pretty clear he won't sign an extension (its been said here by insiders, and now by himself). You gotta trade him this offseason while his value is at its highest. Wait until the deadline or next season and you risk him getting injured (a high possibility) or coming back down from the 2007 season.

Trade him ASAP.

Trading Bedard IS a smart move, except our FO doesn't make smart moves.

[DrungoHazewood]

Mostly "compilers" on that list, IMO.

Guys like Maddux and Glavine are not considered strikeout pitchers, and of course Jamie Moyer's presence on the list throws up a huge red flag.

I dunno where you're getting your data, or how difficult these queries are, but the analysis I'd do is:

A) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present (20 years) with >400 IP and K/9 rates >8 (or pick other IP and K/9 cutpoints).

B) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present within your height/weight criteria with >400 IP and K/9 rates >8.

C) Take the ratio of B:A

D) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present (20 years) with >400 IP.

E) Count all starting pitchers 1987-present within your height/weight criteria with >400 IP.

F) Take the ratio of E: D

G) Compare C) to F) to see how the frequency of small guys in the "strikeout" starting pitcher population compares to the the frequency of small guys in the general starting pitcher population.

If you point me to your source, I'll give it a shot.

I took the general idea of your post and did a new search. I'm not being stubborn, I'm not really sure why I didn't exactly follow your recipe.

I looked for all pitchers who pitched at least 50 innings from 1980-present. There were 1909 of them.

700 of those 1909, or 37%, were between 6' and 6'2" and between 170 and 200 lbs.

189 of the 1224 had 8.0 or more K/9.

61 of the 189, or 32%, were between 6' and 6'2" and between 170 and 200 lbs.

On a whim, I looked at pitchers 6'4" or taller. There were 887 of them. 91 (10.2%) had K/9 greater than 8.0. There were also 137 pitchers under 6'0" tall, and 21 (15.3%) of them had K/9 greater than 8.0.

[markdublya]

Four.

Same list, 1980-present:

HEIGHT BETWEEN 71 AND 73WEIGHT BETWEEN 170 AND 200STRIKEOUTS                      SO     1    Greg Maddux                3169   2    David Cone                 2668   3    Tom Glavine                2481   4    Fernando Valenzuela        2074   5    Jamie Moyer                1992   6    Kenny Rogers               1850   7    Jeff Fassero               1643   8    Dave Stieb                 1617   9    Jose Rijo                  1606   10   Doug Drabek                1594   11   Jimmy Key                  1538   12   Kevin Tapani               1482   13   Bartolo Colon              1466   14   Floyd Bannister            1402   15   Woody Williams             1379   16   Pete Harnisch              1368   17   Mario Soto                 1360   T18  Wilson Alvarez             1330   T18  Mike Boddicker             1330   20   Mark Gardner               1256   

Quick question for you:

Exactly who weighed Colon and 'Nando?!?!

[Sports Guy]

Was a 4/18(i am assuming that is about what they offered Bedard) contract really that bad of an offer, considering service time, for Bedard?

I know other pitchers(Hudson and Mulder come to mind) have signed contracts similar to this but i am not sure if the service time was similar or not.

[RShack]

Somebody asked Bedard a question. Bedard had to say something, so he made up an answer. Big deal. People are acting as if this was a big policy statement. I imagine that Bedard paid less attention to his own answer than we do. I betcha Bedard can't even remember exactly what words he used.

If, for some unknown reason, he wanted to really stir up this place, and divide people into 2 camps (those who jump out of windows for no reason vs. those who jump for joy for no reason), what he should have said was "no comment". Had he done that, many of us would be positive that he was truly passing along news that's significant ;-)

[tywright]

Do we have a consensus on what teams would match up well with us in a trade?

I'm assuming the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Milwaukee, and Atlanta are on the list

What do we need to get in a trade?

IMO we need our SS of the future, OF bat, and young SP

[DrungoHazewood]

Quick question for you:

Exactly who weighed Colon and 'Nando?!?!

Yea, that's one problem with using listed weights and heights. A Bill James quote from his New Historical Abstract is appropriate (I'm paraphrasing): "Cecil Fielder was the heaviest listed player from the 80s at 260. The question is what he would have weighed with the other foot on the scale."

David Wells is listed at 225. He was probably 225 in middle school.

There was a time a few years ago when no Oriole would admit to being shorter than 6'. Yes, Jay Gibbons was on the roster.

[NewMarketSean]

Somebody asked Bedard a question. Bedard had to say something, so he made up an answer. Big deal. People are acting as if this was big policy statement. I imagine that Bedard paid less attention to his own answer than we do. I betcha Bedard can't even remember exactly what words he used.

If, for some unknown reason, he wanted to really stir up this place, and divide people into 2 camps (those who jump out of windows for no reason vs. those who jump for joy for no reason), what he should have said was "no comment". Had he done that, many of us would be positive that he was truly passing along news that's significant ;-)

What he said wasn't some made up answer. It fits right into what we've heard about him concerning staying with the O's.

BEDARD: I'm comfortable going year by year ... then we'll see what team wants me.

Reading his answer, it sounds like he won't sign an extension. If he was up for it, he would have said "We'll see how things progress this offseason and go from there. I'm willing to listen to any offer."

As for seeing "what teams want me", that could be just a way drive his price up, which is something Bedard has every right to do. This is his payday and he should get the most out of it. In that scenario the Orioles could be the team that does want him most, thus pay him the most.

I just don't see it working out like that.

And if you know you don't stand a good chance to sign him with the bigger spending teams in the mix for him, you've got to trade him.

It's common sense.

[JTrea81]

Do we have a consensus on what teams would match up well with us in a trade?

I'm assuming the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Milwaukee, and Atlanta are on the list

What do we need to get in a trade?

IMO we need our SS of the future, OF bat, and young SP

We should get a future ace and a young OF bat and then a young IF bat, position depending on a Tejada or Roberts trade. Three potential cornerstones should be the price for Bedard.

[tywright]

We should get a future ace and a young OF bat and then a young IF bat, position depending on a Tejada or Roberts trade. Three potential cornerstones should be the price for Bedard.

Ok so from the 5 teams I listed, plus any other teams you can think of, create a 3 player package that fits your equation.

I'll start it off:

Atlanta: Escobar (SS) Brandon Jones (OF) Thomas Hanson or Cole Rohrbaugh (SP)... probably another player as well. This is most likely the best Atlanta could offer and we would not accept it.

[markdublya]

Yea, that's one problem with using listed weights and heights. A Bill James quote from his New Historical Abstract is appropriate (I'm paraphrasing): "Cecil Fielder was the heaviest listed player from the 80s at 260. The question is what he would have weighed with the other foot on the scale."

David Wells is listed at 225. He was probably 225 in middle school.

There was a time a few years ago when no Oriole would admit to being shorter than 6'. Yes, Jay Gibbons was on the roster.

I was wondering why Pedro wasn't on your list - now I know - 5'11" 193

[NoVaO]

I wasn't sure where to put this...I looked through the Kemp trade thread and didn't see it, but I thought this was very interesting...

http://cbs2.com/sports/local_story_269110730.html

It basically says:

(CBS) Foxsports.com is reporting a trade rumor that would send former CY Young award winner Johan Santana to the Dodgers in a deal for OF Matt Kemp.

The Dodgers would also send pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw is regarded as the top pitching prospect in baseball.

The Twins are looking for a young outfielder to possibly replace Torii Hunter.

The Foxsports story reports sources close to the Twins say the offer is being considered by the Dodgers.

Now, I assume that the trade goes beyond Santana and Kershaw/Kemp. That is for 1 year of Santana.

I would think for two years of Bedard, you may be able to get Kershaw/Kemp/Laroche or Hu...I could see an expansion of a deal that involves more than just the above-mentioned players.

A lot of possibilities.

[RVAbird]

I wasn't sure where to put this...I looked through the Kemp trade thread and didn't see it, but I thought this was very interesting...

http://cbs2.com/sports/local_story_269110730.html

It basically says:

Now, I assume that the trade goes beyond Santana and Kershaw/Kemp. That is for 1 year of Santana.

I would think for two years of Bedard, you may be able to get Kershaw/Kemp/Laroche or Hu...I could see an expansion of a deal that involves more than just the above-mentioned players.

A lot of possibilities.

Wow, Kershaw and Kemp for a year of Johan? If that's true then Coletti is...well...Coletti. We can totally beat that deal, and for an extra year of Bedard we could get Hu and/or LaRoche.