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Will Ichiro get 3000?


backwardsk

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He has 2030 MLB hits. He's entering his age 36 season. After coming over to the states at age 27, his worst season for hits was 206. He had 225 last season and has averaged 225 over his past four seasons.

Does he play long enough. He'll most likely need 4 full seasons and part of a 5th one. His contract is for three more seasons.

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In one sense Ichiro is the type of hitter, physically, that makes me think he could be the next Julio Franco and crank out 8 more 200+ hit seasons. The problem with the guy is that, unlike Franco, he's a diva and doesn't just play for the fun of the game. In reality I see him putting forth a few more good seasons and then going back to Japan when someone asks him to hit 6th or play DH or anything else that ruins his honor.

One thing I do know... Ichiro is not going to finish his career quietly

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In one sense Ichiro is the type of hitter, physically, that makes me think he could be the next Julio Franco and crank out 8 more 200+ hit seasons. The problem with the guy is that, unlike Franco, he's a diva and doesn't just play for the fun of the game. In reality I see him putting forth a few more good seasons and then going back to Japan when someone asks him to hit 6th or play DH or anything else that ruins his honor.

One thing I do know... Ichiro is not going to finish his career quietly

I agree with this ine of thinking, just ask the guy for an autograph only to see him ignore you. The guy had 2,000 hits in Japan before coming here, but for me he is the best pure hitter in the history of the game. Better than Cobb and Rose for me. He also plays Gold Glove D. That guy is a Hall of Famer and I think 3,000 hits will be very important to him. I also think he will reach that milestone.

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The guy had 2,000 hits in Japan before coming here, but for me he is the best pure hitter in the history of the game. Better than Cobb and Rose for me.

We differ in definition of best pure hitter. Ichiro is the best at dinking singles to accumulate base hits. He does not however work the count or walk very often, which are things I consider important in a hitter. He has also made the decision to not to try and hit for power, which I also add into the equation for best pure hitter. To me someone like Ted Williams was a superior hitter to someone like Rose or Ichiro.

If Ichiro's BA drops below .300 and he doesn't adapt his style he will be of little use offensively to his team. His lifetime OBA is only .045 points higher then his BA and his slash line is 333/378/434 for an .811 OPS which is really not that impressive for a corner outfielder. Adam Dunn by comparision has a lifelime slash line of 249/383/520 for an OPS of .903, thats right despite having a BA almost 100 points lower, Dunn gets on base more often.

I do think he has a good chance at 3,000 hits as I think Seattle will stick with him untill he decides he wants to leave there and his health seems fine.

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If Ichiro's BA drops below .300 and he doesn't adapt his style he will be of little use offensively to his team. His lifetime OBA is only .045 points higher then his BA and his slash line is 333/378/434 for an .811 OPS which is really not that impressive for a corner outfielder. Adam Dunn by comparision has a lifelime slash line of 249/383/520 for an OPS of .903, thats right despite having a BA almost 100 points lower, Dunn gets on base more often.

Yeah, but would you want him on your team?

I think he gets to 3,000. Yeah, he's getting up there in age but he takes great care of himself. He can still have a 180 or a 190 hit season and still hold up that 200 hit season average due to some of the ridiculous seasons he's had.

HoFer, too.

EDIT: Pretty amazing, he's been in the majors for 9 seasons and he's lead the league in hits 6 of those years.

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In the abstract yes, with the salary he is making, no. Do you think he is worth 18 million a year?

He is a marvel and I do enjoy watching him play.

Not necessarily worth 18 million a year for that OPS but what he'd do for the Orioles on an international level, absolutely.

Interestingly enough, according to FanGraphs he hasn't been worth less than $18 million since 2005, and was worth $23-plus million two of the last three seasons.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1101&position=OF#value

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If Ichiro's BA drops below .300 and he doesn't adapt his style he will be of little use offensively to his team. His lifetime OBA is only .045 points higher then his BA and his slash line is 333/378/434 for an .811 OPS which is really not that impressive for a corner outfielder. Adam Dunn by comparision has a lifelime slash line of 249/383/520 for an OPS of .903, thats right despite having a BA almost 100 points lower, Dunn gets on base more often.

Which is fine if you're only comparing offense, which I guess you were.

If there was such a thing as a defensive triple slash line Ichiro would be, like, .300/.400/.500 while Dunn would be .100/.150/.174. So overall I'd take Ichiro.

HoFer, too.

Yea, unless the HOF gets really stupid. Which wouldn't be unprecedented.

Ichiro is about as close as we'll ever get to seeing Willie Keeler.

In the abstract yes, with the salary he is making, no. Do you think he is worth 18 million a year?

He is a marvel and I do enjoy watching him play.

Yes, as BTerp said, he's been worth that and more, since he's an average hitter, but a plus-plus right fielder and an excellent baserunner.

And, as far as I'm concerned, he's already gotten 3000 hits. The real question should be is he going to pass Rose for the career record for professional hits?

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Which is fine if you're only comparing offense, which I guess you were.

I thought I was pretty clearly just comparing batting. Obviously Ichiro is a much better all around player then Dunn. I was responding to Goldglove21 calling him "the best pure hitter in the history of the game.". I think that while what Ichiro does with a bat is remarkable it is not actually that valuable.

Yes, as BTerp said, he's been worth that and more, since he's an average hitter, but a plus-plus right fielder and an excellent baserunner.

If I had a overall budget in the 100 million dollar range I would agree that he would be worth what Fangraphs puts him at, I would not allocate 20% of my payroll to him.

And, as far as I'm concerned, he's already gotten 3000 hits. The real question should be is he going to pass Rose for the career record for professional hits?

I agree and hope he does.

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Which is fine if you're only comparing offense, which I guess you were.

If there was such a thing as a defensive triple slash line Ichiro would be, like, .300/.400/.500 while Dunn would be .100/.150/.174. So overall I'd take Ichiro.

Yea, unless the HOF gets really stupid. Which wouldn't be unprecedented.

Ichiro is about as close as we'll ever get to seeing Willie Keeler.

Yes, as BTerp said, he's been worth that and more, since he's an average hitter, but a plus-plus right fielder and an excellent baserunner.

And, as far as I'm concerned, he's already gotten 3000 hits. The real question should be is he going to pass Rose for the career record for professional hits?[/QUOTE]

If he gets 3000 MLB hits, he'll have passed Rose in all time hits (if you are only counting Rose's MLB hits).

Ichiro has 2030 MLB hits and 3308 professional hits.

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I thought I was pretty clearly just comparing batting. Obviously Ichiro is a much better all around player then Dunn. I was responding to Goldglove21 calling him "the best pure hitter in the history of the game.". I think that while what Ichiro does with a bat is remarkable it is not actually that valuable.

The problem is that your statement here doesn't match what you were seemingly trying to say before.

It's obvious that what he does with a bat IS valuable. The difference between his OBP and BA might not be ideal, but when you are regularly batting .350 that doesn't matter all that much. It is, like you said, when he's batting .300 or below that it is a problem. He just hasn't arrived there yet.

If your argument is that he's not likely to be valuable in the future as his bat and speed both slow, that's almost assuredly true. However, there's no doubt that he is immensely valuable right now.

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The problem is that your statement here doesn't match what you were seemingly trying to say before.

It's obvious that what he does with a bat IS valuable. The difference between his OBP and BA might not be ideal, but when you are regularly batting .350 that doesn't matter all that much. It is, like you said, when he's batting .300 or below that it is a problem. He just hasn't arrived there yet.

If your argument is that he's not likely to be valuable in the future as his bat and speed both slow, that's almost assuredly true. However, there's no doubt that he is immensely valuable right now.

My argument is also that a career OPS in the low 800's is not particularly valuable in a corner outfielder.

Now his defense and speed does enhance his value but, to me, a high average with few walks and extra base hits is not as valuable as it is impressive.

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