O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[mcgraw238]

Apparently I'm not the only one that thinks some 2011 draft-eligibles are getting overhyped:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2167997&postcount=30

Very nice catch indeed. I thought of that post (in response to one of mine no less) as I read through this discussion.

[Stotle]

If your point is that the O's will get a tremendous player even if Rendon is gone by the time we pick...point taken.

If your point is that Rendon might not be worthy of the top pick by next year because it's just too far out...point taken.

However, if his value continues to be about what it is, I want him in the Orioles' organization badly. The only way I'd change that is if one of those pitchers becomes a near Strasburg-like stud.

I am probably contributing to the hype but I think it's totally reasonable for Orioles fans to see the possibility that the O's could draft a legit and nearly ML ready middle of the order bat and get very excited...particularly looking at our inability to draft, develop or sign hitters.

It's not like I'd be mad with Matt Purke et al, but I know where my heart is at right now.

I absolutely understand this view point. But to put things in perspective, Callis called Ackley the best college hitter in the last decade and said he'd win multiple batting titles. In his first MiL season he is at AA:

PA - 248

BB - 43

SO - 29

2B - 13

3B - 3

HR - 1

.246/.391/.357

As ready as Rendon looks (even as a sophomore) there is no way to know how he will transition to pro ball. I absolutely understand liking the kid, but attaching actual definitive "desire" to him at this point over the rest of the class is in my opinion by definition (because of the nature of the draft and the transition to pro ball) placing a higher expectation on a player than is warranted. I don't expect everyone to share that view -- but I do think I have a right to express that opinion.

[JTrea81]

I absolutely understand this view point. But to put things in perspective, Callis called Ackley the best college hitter in the last decade and said he'd win multiple batting titles. In his first MiL season he is at AA:

PA - 248

BB - 43

SO - 29

2B - 13

3B - 3

HR - 1

.246/.391/.357

As ready as Rendon looks (even as a sophomore) there is no way to know how he will transition to pro ball. I absolutely understand liking the kid, but attaching actual definitive "desire" to him at this point over the rest of the class is in my opinion by definition (because of the nature of the draft and the transition to pro ball) placing a higher expectation on a player than is warranted. I don't expect everyone to share that view -- but I do think I have a right to express that opinion.

Ackley is coming around quite a bit after a .516 OPS in April, posting a .923 OPS in May and an .820 OPS in June, and you can't deny that OBP. Patience is a key to becoming a batting champion, and Ackley has a tremendous eye. The 43 BBs to 29 Ks really show that.

Power was always suspect with Ackley, but I think he'll be a tremendous leadoff or #2 hitter for the Mariners.

And don't forget the Mariners started him in AA. Wieters started in A ball, so Ackley hasn't been eased into the pros like he was. I think he's adjusted quite well.

[LookinUp]

I absolutely understand this view point. But to put things in perspective, Callis called Ackley the best college hitter in the last decade and said he'd win multiple batting titles. In his first MiL season he is at AA:

PA - 248

BB - 43

SO - 29

2B - 13

3B - 3

HR - 1

.246/.391/.357

As ready as Rendon looks (even as a sophomore) there is no way to know how he will transition to pro ball. I absolutely understand liking the kid, but attaching actual definitive "desire" to him at this point over the rest of the class is in my opinion by definition (because of the nature of the draft and the transition to pro ball) placing a higher expectation on a player than is warranted. I don't expect everyone to share that view -- but I do think I have a right to express that opinion.

But isn't Callis overblown when it comes to Ackley? My recollection of the reviews on him were that he was a guy who would hit for a ton of average but not a ton of power, and that he didn't have almost any positional value unless he made a less-than-likely conversion to an above average CF.

Based on the few reports I've heard, I'd take Rendon over Ackley every day of the week. His power is and projects to be superior, contact rate and OBP expectations seem in line and he has real positional value at 3b.

I don't think they're really comparable, but I've always thought that some people over rated Ackley (though I'd have been quite happy had he fallen to us).

[mcgraw238]

You mean Callis and Law -- the guys who have each said that while Rendon is the frontrunner he is far from a lock to go #1 considering the crazy depth (particularly at the college pitching ranks)? The two have them can each go overboard with player love (Ackley and Machado, respectively), but so can we all. Hey, I trumpeted a HS pitcher all fall/winter/spring that didn't even go until the 30-40 round range!

I'm not hung up on anything. I made an observation and RZ challenged it in his normal pleasant way. And if you forgot what that "wild, strawman-building, controversial, insulting" post was:

Yeah, I can see why that would set him (and I guess you?) off. You can call it straw man, but you'd be wrong. We have threads debating our chances of finishing last specifically to get Rendon. We have posts in other draft threads (and even threads on the Orioles board) stating the "silver lining" to being this bad is Rendon. Your above post proves my point -- stating things like "So what, fans are excited because the Orioles need bats" or "Everyone is excited after seeing Strasburg" further prove it. You are talking about adding value to a player due to perceived external variables (needing bats or Strasburg in DC). Saying that Trea now says "Rendon could have a down year" is evidence as to why you don't spend hundreds of posts debating the merits of a player 15 months ahead of time. I'm guilty of it too -- I've partaken in the convos -- I was just pointing out his "hype" is already spinning out of control (which it certainly is).

If you think those are normal thoughts in player evaluation (actively rooting to get a college sophomore 15 months ahead of time) then I understand why you take exception to my point. But it's premature and the difference between Rendon and the rest of the class, even right now, is not great. This isn't close to the gap between Strasburg and the '09 class, or Harper and the '10 class (though were Taillon a college arm it would be similar).

First, I acknowledge that there seems to be some dynamic between RZ and yourself that is outside the normal dialog herein. So, perhaps, I should have held back before jumping into the discussion. That said, I can assure you that nothing in this thread set me off.

I do standby my assertion that the statement and inference that O's fans are acting as if Rendon is the franchise savior is the essence of a strawman in that, at least in my opinion, I don't believe that to be the case. As I said in the previous post, Rendom profiles as an impact bat at a position of need in a season in which the O's are currently leading for the 1st pick in the draft. This type of asset could be a nice piece (along with other pieces) in righting the ship. To me, that is worthy of discussion in a forum on the Amateur Draft. Some, though I acknowledge not all, of those thread on the "silver lining" can be attributed to tongue in cheek responses to what has otherwise been a dismal season.

As far as advocating on our finish, I personally see no real benefit to finishing outside of last in a season that is already in the toilet (I acknowledge that some would differ on this take). As for the bolded above, I can see how that can be perceived as adding to the "hype," and I assure you that any reference to Strasburg was purely in the context of the ability to add impact talent, hence the reference to Strasburg and Harper; though Rendon may not be of that caliber. However, I still see no harm in O's fans seeing the potential for an impact bat as something of a silver lining in this awful season.

As far as spending hundreds of posts debating the merits of a player 15 months ahead of time, I guess I thought that's what we do on a message board. I'm more than willing to discuss why we should look at one of those arms with the first pick in the draft assuming we end up with said selection. That would indeed be an interesting debate. I think I know where Trea will stand. :laughlol: As I said in the earlier post, I agree there is a lot of evaluation left before the final decision on who goes number 1.

I agree that Callis, Law, Gammons, etc. go way overboard with prospect love. For example, I heard Gammons make the statement that Harper is a lock to get to 500 HRs. Lastly, in the spirit of positive discussion, I'd like to add that I do you enjoy your posts and the information you provide on amateur talent. It was not my intent for the discussion for things to take an adversarial turn; a proof reading of my post may have taken a little of the edge off.

[Stotle]

But isn't Callis overblown when it comes to Ackley? My recollection of the reviews on him were that he was a guy who would hit for a ton of average but not a ton of power, and that he didn't have almost any positional value unless he made a less-than-likely conversion to an above average CF.

Based on the few reports I've heard, I'd take Rendon over Ackley every day of the week. His power is and projects to be superior, contact rate and OBP expectations seem in line and he has real positional value at 3b.

I don't think they're really comparable, but I've always thought that some people over rated Ackley (though I'd have been quite happy had he fallen to us).

Yeah, I agee Callis is overblown with Ackley (I used Ackley as my example for Callis hyping a player the same Keith Law hyped Machado). I had Ackley down around 7th on my board that year. My point is more that Rendon may be able jump to the Bigs with very little time in the minors, but he may also struggle a little more out of the box. Either way, having him contribute to a ML club before 2013 would be gravy, but I think it may be an unfair "expectation".

I agree, I'd take Rendon over Ackley, as well.

[Stotle]

First, I acknowledge that there seems to be some dynamic between RZ and yourself that is outside the normal dialog herein. So, perhaps, I should have held back before jumping into the discussion. That said, I can assure you that nothing in this thread set me off.

I do standby my assertion that the statement and inference that O's fans are acting as if Rendon is the franchise savior is the essence of a strawman in that, at least in my opinion, I don't believe that to be the case. As I said in the previous post, Rendom profiles as an impact bat at a position of need in a season in which the O's are currently leading for the 1st pick in the draft. This type of asset could be a nice piece (along with other pieces) in righting the ship. To me, that is worthy of discussion in a forum on the Amateur Draft. Some, though I acknowledge not all, of those thread on the "silver lining" can be attributed to tongue in cheek responses to what has otherwise been a dismal season.

As far as advocating on our finish, I personally see no real benefit to finishing outside of last in a season that is already in the toilet (I acknowledge that some would differ on this take). As for the bolded above, I can see how that can be perceived as adding to the "hype," and I assure you that any reference to Strasburg was purely in the context of the ability to add impact talent, hence the reference to Strasburg and Harper; though Rendon may not be of that caliber. However, I still see no harm in O's fans seeing the potential for an impact bat as something of a silver lining in this awful season.

As far as spending hundreds of posts debating the merits of a player 15 months ahead of time, I guess I thought that's what we do on a message board. I'm more than willing to discuss why we should look at one of those arms with the first pick in the draft assuming we end up with said selection. That would indeed be an interesting debate. I think I know where Trea will stand. :laughlol: As I said in the earlier post, I agree there is a lot of evaluation left before the final decision on who goes number 1.

I agree that Callis, Law, Gammons, etc. go way overboard with prospect love. For example, I heard Gammons make the statement that Harper is a lock to get to 500 HRs. Lastly, in the spirit of positive discussion, I'd like to add that I do you enjoy your posts and the information you provide on amateur talent. It was not my intent for the discussion for things to take an adversarial turn; a proof reading of my post may have taken a little of the edge off.

I don't really disagree with any of this -- good post, thanks for posting.

[Stotle]

Ackley is coming around quite a bit after a .516 OPS in April, posting a .923 OPS in May and an .820 OPS in June, and you can't deny that OBP. Patience is a key to becoming a batting champion, and Ackley has a tremendous eye. The 43 BBs to 29 Ks really show that.

Power was always suspect with Ackley, but I think he'll be a tremendous leadoff or #2 hitter for the Mariners.

And don't forget the Mariners started him in AA. Wieters started in A ball, so Ackley hasn't been eased into the pros like he was. I think he's adjusted quite well.

Your strongest argument would probably be that Ackley is doing this while learning second base. I agree, he's adjusting fine -- particularly for jumping to AA. But the point is more that even if you draft Rendon in 2011, he's still signing in August of that year and is unlikely to be an impact player in 2012. Best case is most likely a Longoria situation with one full year in the minors. That means BAL is STILL in need of help for 2011 and 2012 before Rendon would even be a factor with the ML club (also note it helped Longoria that he was able to sign early and get started. He actually went through 1.5 MiL seasons).

Of course, to give both sides, the White Sox jumped Gordon Beckham quickly and he has held his own, even if he isn't the pure talent of someone like Longoria. The honest answer is none of us really knows exactly how long any of these kids will take, and many of them will probably succeed/fail regardless of the specific timetable for promotion.

[Greg Pappas]

Most will disagree, but I still think we don't get #1 overall. I know, I know... let me have it.

[AgentOrange]

Keep the curse alive Greg!

[mcgraw238]

Most will disagree, but I still think we don't get #1 overall. I know, I know... let me have it.

I'm torn on this point as I always feel the O's win enough games to screw up their draft slot. I think we need Frobby to come along and make this declaration.

[Greg Pappas]

I'm torn on this point as I always feel the O's win enough games to screw up their draft slot. I think we need Frobby to come along and make this declaration.

Hence my new signature.

[mcgraw238]

Hence my new signature.

Nice signature. Again, my philosophy on these things is if we're going to be bad, we might as well be the best at it. :laughlol:

[BIG R]

If McPhail deals Wiggninton, Guthrie, etc. we have an even better chance at the top pick. We need it so badly! Rendon is our guy.

[H0smash]

Most will disagree, but I still think we don't get #1 overall. I know, I know... let me have it.

You're probably right. There are a lot of REALLY bad teams this year: Houston, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Arizona, Kansas City, and Cleveland. It's going to be tough to get the number one pick.

If we trade Wigginton and Guthrie we would have a much better shot, but I'd at least like to get a top 3 pick. Also, if in the last month or half-month of the season we have the lead for the no. 1 pick, MacPhail and whoever our manager is better make sure we get it! :laughlol: