O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[Stotle]

Im in no way advocating not signing Machado but here is the question who would you rather have. If machado doesn't sign we would have pick 1 and 4 most likely.

Machado/Rendon

Or

Rendon/Jungmann

Im assuming Purke, and Cole are off the board.

I would assume BAL would go deeper and grab someone projected late-1st to get him to sign below slot. Maybe a pitcher like Hultzen or one of the college bats like Dickerson, Springer, Cone, Esposito (though he might also be a 3B), Bradley Jr., etc. I didn't love Levi Michael at the end of this year, but he's a good approach bat that could potentially end-up at 2B. Also, as I mentioned earlier, A&M's closer Stilson is legit and could be the kind of guy that signs for slot or below that high up.

Of course, all of this assuming the draft were today and not a year from now.

[mcgraw238]

I would assume BAL would go deeper and grab someone projected late-1st to get him to sign below slot. Maybe a pitcher like Hultzen or one of the college bats like Dickerson, Springer, Cone, Esposito (though he might also be a 3B), Bradley Jr., etc. I didn't love Levi Michael at the end of this year, but he's a good approach bat that could potentially end-up at 2B. Also, as I mentioned earlier, A&M's closer Stilson is legit and could be the kind of guy that signs for slot or below that high up.

Of course, all of this assuming the draft were today and not a year from now.

The consensus seems to be that the O's would go Rendon at #1 and a easy sign at #4 just like the Nats did with Strasburg and Storen. These predictions are probably correct. I see nothing in the way the O's do business that suggests they would pull the trigger on a Rendon/Jungmann combination. So although it sounds great to get that #4 next year, it is probably in the organizations best interst to get Machado signed.

[JayThomas]

Dang, how can we be only 5 'up' in the loss column? What the h#@$ is PissedButt doing over there? We STINK and we can't even pull away from these guys?

[sakata_catching]

Dang, how can we be only 5 'up' in the loss column? What the h#@$ is PissedButt doing over there? We STINK and we can't even pull away from these guys?

Think how frustrating it is for them. They've lost 12 in a row and have only picked up 1 or 2 games on us.

[QBsILLEST1]

A lot will depend on how everyone looks over the summer, but for me right now it's something like:

Cole/Jungmann

Purke

Gray

Meyer

Armstrong

Bauer

Hultzen

There are more that could be considered potential 1st Round guys, but these are the kids I saw the most this year and would have at the top of my list right now. I like Stilson, but not sure if he will get a shot to start. If he's a BP arm for good, he'd be my #1 relief arm on the board (assuming Gray will continue to start as a pro -- he's undersized with big stuff).

If limited to an arm, right now, it would be between Cole/Jungmann/Purke. Jungmann requires you to project, but I like his "now" stuff. Cole easily has the best pure stuff. Purke's arm slot makes me a little nervous, but so far his CH has been enough to keep RHH honest. LHH have been dominated.

Stotle, do you see Purke as a massively projectable pitcher, or is his frame just really really thin(thus not giving him the same physical projection someone like AJ Cole has)?

Between the pitchers, I like Jungmann, but his mechanics are a bit scary and he has trouble repeating the delivery. He loses command at times, but also at times has great command(inconsistent delivery again). But, my take from that would be, if he can tighten up that delivery some, he could down the road end up having pretty good command. He has the potential for 3 plus pitches from what I have read on his arsenal(with a dominant fastball at times) G. Cole to me won't make the most out of his potential. He lost the really good slider he once had, is apparently tinkering with a cutter, but it isn't the same quality the slider used to be. Now, his changeup which was his 3rd pitch previously, is his best secondary weapon, and as far as I know, it is not a plus pitch right now(could be wrong). It almost seems like he is the same exact pitcher today that he was 2 years ago. Purke has a great combo of stuff and command, but he slings the ball a bit and due to his thin frame, I have heard questions about his durability(when considering arm action)...

[Stotle]

Stotle, (1) do you see Purke as a massively projectable pitcher, or is his frame just really really thin(thus not giving him the same physical projection someone like AJ Cole has)?

Between the pitchers, I like Jungmann, but (2) his mechanics are a bit scary and he has trouble repeating the delivery. He loses command at times, but also at times has great command(inconsistent delivery again). But, my take from that would be, if he can tighten up that delivery some, he could down the road end up having pretty good command. He has the potential for 3 plus pitches from what I have read on his arsenal(with a dominant fastball at times) G. Cole to me won't make the most out of his potential. (3) He lost the really good slider he once had, is apparently tinkering with a cutter, but it isn't the same quality the slider used to be. Now, his changeup which was his 3rd pitch previously, is his best secondary weapon, and as far as I know, it is not a plus pitch right now(could be wrong). It almost seems like he is the same exact pitcher today that he was 2 years ago. Purke has a great combo of stuff and command, but he slings the ball a bit and(4) due to his thin frame, I have heard questions about his durability(when considering arm action)...

(1) AJ Cole and Purke are two very different body types. Don't see Purke massively bulking-up, but he should continue to get stronger.

(2) Don't see issues with Jungmann's mechanics. Inconsistent stride, repeating isn't a huge issue. Command is often VERY good. Athletic and shouldn't have big issues tweaking and refining. Still getting stronger, refining, growing stuff. I think, developmentally, he's in a great place.

(3) Disagree. He was throwing an upper-80s slider in super regionals that was filthy.

(4) Don't see big issues here. I think arm slot could be an issue, but the vertical movement on his vulcan change has been keeping RHH fairly honest. He has logged solid innings and has shown an abilty to go the distance. Also, his stuff hasn't fallen off as the season has progressed. Most questions people had last year have been roundly answered these past three months. Seems like he'll be legit preseason Top 5 candidate -- if durability and arm action were big issues, that likely wouldn't be the case considering the talent in this class.

[VeveJones007]

Remember, this is the Orioles we are talking about. Conservativeness is the key to success, as we see year in and year out. Never take risks ok. Oh yeah, and as you know, Leake and Rendon play on two different sides of the ball, so take that into account as well.

I'm sure that was the answer to somebody's question, but it doesn't answer mine. Is he good enough to step into a major league lineup right out of college?

[allstar1579]

I'm sure that was the answer to somebody's question, but it doesn't answer mine. Is he good enough to step into a major league lineup right out of college?

No, he'd need a couple months in the minors. Same timetable as Longoria I think.

[mcgraw238]

No, he'd need a couple months in the minors. Same timetable as Longoria I think.

Bare in mind that Longoria signed in June of 2006 thereby allowing him to get 276 PAs between A, A+, and AA. He then spent all of 2007 between AA and AAA before making his big league debut in 2008 after 30 PAs in AAA. I doubt we'd get Rendon signed in June though I think the timeline would be the same.

[VeveJones007]

I know the O's have a lot of games left against the top of the AL East and that trades are on the horizon, but I have a sinking feeling that the Pirates are just a worse team than the O's and will get the 1st pick. At least Stotle says there are some other very good players available when we end up picking 2-4 next year.

[bringinbaines]

I know the O's have a lot of games left against the top of the AL East and that trades are on the horizon, but I have a sinking feeling that the Pirates are just a worse team than the O's and will get the 1st pick. At least Stotle says there are some other very good players available when we end up picking 2-4 next year.

We will have a better record at the end of the season than

Pittsburgh currently 25-48

Cleveland currently 26-46

Arizona currently 29-46

Highest I see us picking is 4th

Then these teams might also end up with a worse record

Houston currently 29-46

Kansas City currently 31-44

Seattle currently 31-43

Chicago currently 32-41

Washington currently 33-42

Somewhere between 4 and 9 is my prediction. These teams should all be terrible second half as the teams around them get better. Moving pieces from these teams will hurt them more than our moving pieces will hurt us. We get Pie back too so i'm just countin on being in the second half of the top ten.

[Can_of_corn]

We will have a better record at the end of the season than

Pittsburgh currently 25-48

Cleveland currently 26-46

Arizona currently 29-46

Highest I see us picking is 4th

Then these teams might also end up with a worse record

Houston currently 29-46

Kansas City currently 31-44

Seattle currently 31-43

Chicago currently 32-41

Washington currently 33-42

Somewhere between 4 and 9 is my prediction. These teams should all be terrible second half as the teams around them get better. Moving pieces from these teams will hurt them more than our moving pieces will hurt us. We get Pie back too so i'm just countin on being in the second half of the top ten.

They are 22-52 they need to go 41-47 to avoid 100 losses. Do you see three teams, other then the O's, losing 100 this season? Do you see eight?

Yes they have won three straight but the Bullpen has thrown 13 2/3 innings in the last three games. That is not the way to build a winning streak.

They are in a soft part of the schedule right now, they have lots of games left against the Rays, Sox, and Yanks, who by the way should have a lot to play for.

[thundercleetz]

Somewhere between 4 and 9 is my prediction. These teams should all be terrible second half as the teams around them get better. Moving pieces from these teams will hurt them more than our moving pieces will hurt us. We get Pie back too so i'm just countin on being in the second half of the top ten.

And how does this logic not apply to us? NYY, Boston, Tampa, and Toronto are not going to make moves to get better in the second half of the season? I don't follow your logic on why we are going to pick fourth at the highest.

[bringinbaines]

And how does this logic not apply to us? NYY, Boston, Tampa, and Toronto are not going to make moves to get better in the second half of the season? I don't follow your logic on why we are going to pick fourth at the highest.

Those other teams will give up more than us I believe. The possible exception to this out of those teams is Washington, but I think the Mets are gonna make more moves than anybody. I was just trying to say that the other teams will be giving up a lot and teams in their division will be getting better. Boston, NY, Tampa, and Toronto will be getting better, but we should as well getting rid of Atkins, getting Pie etc.

[Can_of_corn]

We get Pie back too so i'm just countin on being in the second half of the top ten.

Boston, NY, Tampa, and Toronto will be getting better, but we should as well getting rid of Atkins, getting Pie etc.

How many wins do you think Pie is worth? You expecting like 5 WAR from him here on out?