O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[bluehens45]

Great vid's Stotle. In the first scence of Rendon batting is that Taylor Jungmann pitching? I cant tell what number is on his back. I would have loved to see Jungmann pitch to Rendon. Im sure Taylor Jungmann is another kid that will be considered at 1:1.

[Stotle]

Great vid's Stotle. In the first scence of Rendon batting is that Taylor Jungmann pitching? I cant tell what number is on his back. I would have loved to see Jungmann pitch to Rendon. Im sure Taylor Jungmann is another kid that will be considered at 1:1.

Yup. Got all three Jungmann/Rendon ABs. BB, 5-3, F6. The pop-out to shallow center (fielded by SS, Loy) was a "just miss". All three were good ABs. The behind view that looks like a hard linedrive against Texas Tech (Bobby Doran -- I think drafted in 5th Round) was actually a homerun! Absolute rope.

[mcgraw238]

We've been reading threads on here dating back to early spring talking about the magic of landing Rendon. People have honestly been saying they hope Baltimore doesn't improve so that they can land Rendon. And you ask how he can be "overhyped"? He's special. He's one of my favorite players to watch. I saw him do some ridiculous things in Houston back in March. But he isn't single-handedly turning around an organization.

I don't know about single-handedly turning around an organization, but I think Rendon is a special hitter that profiles as a middle of the order key making him a perfect match for the O's needs. That said, the college arms are really nice as well.

[Stotle]

You kill me. You say he's been overhyped on the board but it's not actually in any of the posts. It's just you reading the minds of everyone else. You are not a realist. You are a mentalist. What a gift!

I didn't say the hype wasn't in posts, I said "franchise savior" wasn't in posts (you misrepresent my position? Shocking!).

I'm not going back to list these posts. Everyone who has been "talking draft" for the past four months knows that Rendon has been super-hyped around here. You are so disingenuous you are morphing into a caricature of yourself. Posts claiming victory for being in line to draft someone 15 months before he's even eligible = hype. To infer otherwise is a willful disengagement with reality. Not that I expect you to (ever) admit when your baiting, as opposed to engaging in genuine baseball talk. I understand the line blurs for you between entertainment via baseball and entertainment via verbal sparring. Such is the good/bad of message boards...

EDIT -- over 320 separate posts with "Rendon". I'm certain there a number that just list his name in passing, but compare to other 2011 top draftees:

Gerrit Cole - 14 posts since the fall (he was discussed in the 2008 draft)

Jungmann - 19 posts

Purke - around 75 posts since the fall (he was discussed in the 2009 draft talks a fair amount)

Hultzen - 26 posts

Gray - 5 posts since last fall (2 of them mine). Again, he was discussed in the 2008 draft.

But you're right -- Rendon isn't a special case. No one is hyped about him, and he's not being hyped...

[bluehens45]

I think the reason he is getting so much hype around here has to do with the fact that he is a power hitting 3B. The key in that is power hitter. Its something we have not had around here in a long time and i think alot of people miss that. When was the last real power hitter we had in Baltimore? Belle? I think people are pumped because we have a chance to land a hitter in the Longoria category, that and the fact that we most likely will have the #1 pick in the draft and get to pick anyone we want and right now Rendon looks like the front-runner.

[waroriole]

You kill me. You say he's been overhyped on the board but it's not actually in any of the posts. It's just you reading the minds of everyone else. You are not a realist. You are a mentalist. What a gift!

Dude give it a rest. Every thread Stotle posts in you're in there challenging him about something, anything. It's pretty obvious that Rendon is very hyped on this board. Whether it's overhyped or not I don't know, I haven't seen him play, but when people are talking about throwing the season I'd say it's possible he's overhyped.

[mcgraw238]

I didn't say the hype wasn't in posts, I said "franchise savior" wasn't in posts (you misrepresent my position? Shocking!).

I'm not going back to list these posts. Everyone who has been "talking draft" for the past four months knows that Rendon has been super-hyped around here. You are so disingenuous you are morphing into a caricature of yourself. Posts claiming victory for being in line to draft someone 15 months before he's even eligible = hype. To infer otherwise is a willful disengagement with reality. Not that I expect you to (ever) admit when your baiting, as opposed to engaging in genuine baseball talk. I understand the line blurs for you between entertainment via baseball and entertainment via verbal sparring. Such is the good/bad of message boards...

EDIT -- over 320 separate posts with "Rendon". I'm certain there a number that just list his name in passing, but compare to other 2011 top draftees:

Gerrit Cole - 14 posts since the fall (he was discussed in the 2008 draft)

Jungmann - 19 posts

Purke - around 75 posts since the fall (he was discussed in the 2009 draft talks a fair amount)

Hultzen - 26 posts

Gray - 5 posts since last fall (2 of them mine). Again, he was discussed in the 2008 draft.

But you're right -- Rendon isn't a special case. No one is hyped about him, and he's not being hyped...

I'm having a hard time understanding why your so hung up on this issue. With the O's having the worst record in baseball and a clear path to the 1st pick in the 2011 draft, its understandable that people will talk about the talent available. And guess what, Rendon is a guy that fits a big time need for the O's and is the early front runner to go number 1. Heck, even Trea in a recent post acknowledged that a disappointing junior season could change his draft stock. Big deal about the number of posts having "Rendon" versus the other guys. We need bats so its natural that folks will talk about the best available bat versus the best available arm. Yet, you've created this strawman argument that people think Rendon will "single-handedly" turn around the O's. That's just not the case, its the opportunity to add an additional impact bat to the young talent base. Not to mention that the talk of finishing in the worst record, at least in my opinion, is also grounded in the recent events of watching the Nats add Strasburg to thier roster and the selection of Harper. If he's being overhyped, then I recommend you fire off some emails to Jim Callis and Keith Law as they are the ones saying they would have taken Rendon over Harper and calling him the best college bat since Tex.

Having said all that, I think the point your trying to make is there is a lot of evaluation left before the final decision is to be made on who goes number 1. I agree; At least for me, that is implicit in all the discussions. Aside from Trea's comment a few pages back, I'd say that most would feel that you take the best guy on the board when all the scouting and evaluation is completed with a leaning toward the bat if the analysis is close. If that guy is one of the pitchers, then so be it. My thoughts on getting the number 1 pick for the O's is that it would be nice for them to be able to get the cream of the crop for once.

[Justinlstn]

I'm an Orioles faithful as much as anyone on here. Even with them doing this bad i still support them. With that being said i don't think the Orioles need to tank on purpose to get the #1 next year. We are past the point where it's just a bad start to where we are a joke to everyone in baseball. I was one of the people who wished we took tallion over Machado even though people said we have enough pitching. I think we take Rendon. Now this may change next year. Someone may step up or fall apart. Like this year everyone expect Anthony Ranaudo to go #2 and he dropped all the way down to #39. But if the draft were today i would take Rendon. We haven't had the first pick in the draft since 1990 and we need a impact player. No he won't save this club but he will have a positive affect in the line up in the future.

[Stotle]

Dude give it a rest. Every thread Stotle posts in you're in there challenging him about something, anything. It's pretty obvious that Rendon is very hyped on this board. Whether it's overhyped or not I don't know, I haven't seen him play, but when people are talking about throwing the season I'd say it's possible he's overhyped.

Thanks, but there is no need for you to get dragged in. I should have just dropped it from the get go. No need to continually go down this path with RZ. But I do appreciate that you and others see what he's occasionally doing.

[Stotle]

I'm having a hard time understanding why your so hung up on this issue. With the O's having the worst record in baseball and a clear path to the 1st pick in the 2011 draft, its understandable that people will talk about the talent available. And guess what, Rendon is a guy that fits a big time need for the O's and is the early front runner to go number 1. Heck, even Trea in a recent post acknowledged that a disappointing junior season could change his draft stock. Big deal about the number of posts having "Rendon" versus the other guys. We need bats so its natural that folks will talk about the best available bat versus the best available arm. Yet, you've created this strawman argument that people think Rendon will "single-handedly" turn around the O's. That's just not the case, its the opportunity to add an additional impact bat to the young talent base. Not to mention that the talk of finishing in the worst record, at least in my opinion, is also grounded in the recent events of watching the Nats add Strasburg to thier roster and the selection of Harper. If he's being overhyped, then I recommend you fire off some emails to Jim Callis and Keith Law as they are the ones saying they would have taken Rendon over Harper and calling him the best college bat since Tex.

Having said all that, I think the point your trying to make is there is a lot of evaluation left before the final decision is to be made on who goes number 1. I agree; At least for me, that is implicit in all the discussions. Aside from Trea's comment a few pages back, I'd say that most would feel that you take the best guy on the board when all the scouting and evaluation is completed with a leaning toward the bat if the analysis is close. If that guy is one of the pitchers, then so be it. My thoughts on getting the number 1 pick for the O's is that it would be nice for them to be able to get the cream of the crop for once.

You mean Callis and Law -- the guys who have each said that while Rendon is the frontrunner he is far from a lock to go #1 considering the crazy depth (particularly at the college pitching ranks)? The two have them can each go overboard with player love (Ackley and Machado, respectively), but so can we all. Hey, I trumpeted a HS pitcher all fall/winter/spring that didn't even go until the 30-40 round range!

I'm not hung up on anything. I made an observation and RZ challenged it in his normal pleasant way. And if you forgot what that "wild, strawman-building, controversial, insulting" post was:

He's smallish, but he has lightening in his hands, so it doesn't matter.

That said, he is already vastly over-hyped around this board. Unbelievable talent, but he isn't a slam dunk #1 overall (even if he is in the lead right now).

Yeah, I can see why that would set him (and I guess you?) off. You can call it straw man, but you'd be wrong. We have threads debating our chances of finishing last specifically to get Rendon. We have posts in other draft threads (and even threads on the Orioles board) stating the "silver lining" to being this bad is Rendon. Your above post proves my point -- stating things like "So what, fans are excited because the Orioles need bats" or "Everyone is excited after seeing Strasburg" further prove it. You are talking about adding value to a player due to perceived external variables (needing bats or Strasburg in DC). Saying that Trea now says "Rendon could have a down year" is evidence as to why you don't spend hundreds of posts debating the merits of a player 15 months ahead of time. I'm guilty of it too -- I've partaken in the convos -- I was just pointing out his "hype" is already spinning out of control (which it certainly is).

If you think those are normal thoughts in player evaluation (actively rooting to get a college sophomore 15 months ahead of time) then I understand why you take exception to my point. But it's premature and the difference between Rendon and the rest of the class, even right now, is not great. This isn't close to the gap between Strasburg and the '09 class, or Harper and the '10 class (though were Taillon a college arm it would be similar).

[Stotle]

Hype verses overhype. As usual you get defensive and get off the topic and try to take your jabs at me. The fact is that Rendon is the #1 position player right now. It's not surprising that focus is on an offensive player and not the pitchers. You call Rendon an "unbelievable talent" and then say the board is overhyping him. Unbelievalbe. Keep taking your shot at me though and deflect the argument from where it should be. The fact that you say things and get annoyed when you are asked to actually back them up, and can't. Sorry that you are held to such a high standard. You make the claim that people say he'll turn the franshise around and then back off of it. Nice try. Now it's your turn to make more personal insults and sound so exasperated because you are called out for your inaccurate remarks.

I'm sorry that you think I'm misleading people with inaccurate remarks. In my mind, hyped vs. overhyped is an unimportant debate on semantics. In the end, it's not provable as an objective standard anyway, is it? I mean, think about what you are getting on me for. If you don't think a player is worthy of the attention being paid to him, then in your mind he is overhyped. That doesn't make it a provable fact. I'm sure there are Major and Minor League players that you (RZNJ) think should get more/less hype than they do. If you do NOT think Rendon is being overhyped, asking me to PROVE it to you is an unfair standard, guaranteed to result in nothing but a back and forth.

Based on my beliefs as to judging "hype" for a draft pick that isn't eligible yet, I've backed everything up, from amount of attention paid to Rendon compared to other 2011 talents, to reasons why no player should be getting this much attention from a fan base 15 months prior to being draft eligible, to national analysts also saying that he is not a slam dunk for #1 overall, etc. etc. etc. You don't accept any of that -- fine. You disagree that he's overhyped. But what is the point. The last sentence you wrote is telling. "you are called out for your inaccurate remarks." Can we drop the pretenses and admit that you are going after me for the sake of going after me? If you see language on a message board that to your mind is imprecise, do you always go after that poster? I can answer that for you. But you like the back and forth with me. Fine. But don't pull this "Stotle is getting defensive and insulting me" garbage. You took a positive post about Rendon (that followed other positive posts about Rendon) and decided you wanted to mix it up over the word "overhyped". Bravo -- that's an excellent contribution to the discussion.

If your issue is a need to nail down a precise definition for "overhyped" and then forcing me to prove that is the case, I once again submit that you are not engaging me to talk about baseball. You are simply looking to get into a debate for the sake of the back-and-forth. I should have done what I said I'd do and just ignored you. There's nothing for me to gain talking baseball with you. You do an excellent job of following the O's MiLers and giving info to everyone on the Minors boards. I don't see why you stoop to this as your form of entertainment on the Draft Board. Your game is old, and it falls into the same category of other posters on this board who go after each other regardless of topic. I don't wish to be in that type of "message board relationship" with any poster. Too bad -- whatever your dislike/issue with me, I again say I think you are a great contributor on the MiL board. But your need to take me to task for "inaccuracies" is boring...

[Stotle]

Apparently I'm not the only one that thinks some 2011 draft-eligibles are getting overhyped:

I'm already feeling the overhype on next year's draft. Harper, Taillon, and Machado were considered elite talents by most this year. Elite talent is elite talent in any year.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2167997&postcount=30

[blid]

Jeez that's a lot of words about "hype." In any case I have a feeling the Pirates are going to swoop in and take the #1 spot from us.

[LookinUp]

If you think those are normal thoughts in player evaluation (actively rooting to get a college sophomore 15 months ahead of time) then I understand why you take exception to my point. But it's premature and the difference between Rendon and the rest of the class, even right now, is not great. This isn't close to the gap between Strasburg and the '09 class, or Harper and the '10 class (though were Taillon a college arm it would be similar).

If your point is that the O's will get a tremendous player even if Rendon is gone by the time we pick...point taken.

If your point is that Rendon might not be worthy of the top pick by next year because it's just too far out...point taken.

However, if his value continues to be about what it is, I want him in the Orioles' organization badly. The only way I'd change that is if one of those pitchers becomes a near Strasburg-like stud.

I am probably contributing to the hype but I think it's totally reasonable for Orioles fans to see the possibility that the O's could draft a legit and nearly ML ready middle of the order bat and get very excited...particularly looking at our inability to draft, develop or sign hitters.

It's not like I'd be mad with Matt Purke et al, but I know where my heart is at right now.

[LookinUp]

Jeez that's a lot of words about "hype." In any case I have a feeling the Pirates are going to swoop in and take the #1 spot from us.

Interesting philosophical question here. Everyone says you don't draft for need. Well, the Pirates have Alvarez. He's a stud 3b. I'd guess that they'd take a highly rated pitcher over another stud 3b unless he was an ARod like talent.

So, if we don't get the #1 pick, I hope we have #2 and the Pirates have #1. If the Stros get #1, it sure sounds liike Rendon would make perfect sense for them.

In any event, they get to play each other and in a worse league, so the odds for the O's to stay at #1 have to be pretty good.