Grade the O's draft now that signings are done

[Frobby]

We won't really know for a few years, but based on who we got signed, how would you grade this draft? My sense is it's a solid B, capable of becoming an A if Machado turns out to be an above average ML shortstop.

[Sports Guy]

I still am not a big fan of the draft....I like the Klein pick but I think it is a mistake to make him a starter..Obviously Machado has major upside but we shall see if we can develop it.

[Frobby]

I still am not a big fan of the draft....I like the Klein pick but I think it is a mistake to make him a starter..Obviously Machado has major upside but we shall see if we can develop it.

Why do you think it's a mistake to make Klein a starter? My view is that it's almost always better for a pitcher to have some experience as a starter at a high level, even if they end up in the bullpen in the end.

[Skywalker76]

Why do you think it's a mistake to make Klein a starter? My view is that it's almost always better for a pitcher to have some experience as a starter at a high level, even if they end up in the bullpen in the end.

I guess as a reliever you can move through the leagues quicker. So he could help as early as fall 2011 maybe.

In general I am not sure what I think about this draft. Right after the draft I was super disappointed as I saw other teams take the picks that I thought would be a no-brainer in round 3 and 4. Also with the position that the Orioles are in I am kind of disappointing that we did not sign Urban.

I gave the draft a C.

[Stotle]

Graded against an average draft in an average year or against a possible draft given the picks/players available?

[Frobby]

Graded against an average draft in an average year or against a possible draft given the picks/players available?

Compared to other teams this year, I suppose. The team is always going to fall short against a possible draft, if your opinion of who the best players are differs from Joe Jordan's.

[fredp]

I don;t think they thought Urban was ready.My disappointment was at not drafting Gonzalez at #11.

[Sports Guy]

Why do you think it's a mistake to make Klein a starter? My view is that it's almost always better for a pitcher to have some experience as a starter at a high level, even if they end up in the bullpen in the end.

Because, its likely going to take 2-3 years before you start seeing anything out of him...By then, he will be into his mid 20s and we don't even know if he can do it.

If you make him a reliever, where many people think he should be(although, some do think that with 4 pitches, he should be a starter), then you may get immediate return on your investment..IE in the pen next year.

[Mackus]

Because, its likely going to take 2-3 years before you start seeing anything out of him...By then, he will be into his mid 20s and we don't even know if he can do it.

If you make him a reliever, where many people think he should be(although, some do think that with 4 pitches, he should be a starter), then you may get immediate return on your investment..IE in the pen next year.

So you'd be willing to cut his upside substantially or so to see him in Baltimore by mid-2011 as opposed to early 2013?

While getting an immediate return is nice, I don't think its worth sacrificing his potential as a starter. It wouldn't be impossible for him to transition to starting even if he spends his first few professional years as a reliever, but it would be considerably more difficult than if he's made a starter now.

I don't think making him a starter right now would hinder his potential future value as a reliever down the road nearly as much as making him a reliever now would hinder his potential future value as a starter down the road. A potential quick rise through the system would be nice, but why do we need him so immediately? I think the potential extra value of having him as a future starter rather than reliever is worth having to wait a bit longer to reach the majors.

[Sports Guy]

So you'd be willing to cut his upside substantially or so to see him in Baltimore by mid-2011 as opposed to early 2013?

While getting an immediate return is nice, I don't think its worth sacrificing his potential as a starter. It wouldn't be impossible for him to transition to starting even if he spends his first few professional years as a reliever, but it would be considerably more difficult than if he's made a starter now.

I don't think making him a starter right now would hinder his potential future value as a reliever down the road nearly as much as making him a reliever now would hinder his potential future value as a starter down the road. A potential quick rise through the system would be nice, but why do we need him so immediately? I think the potential extra value of having him as a future starter rather than reliever is worth having to wait a bit longer to reach the majors.

The problem is, its going to take forever for him to build up his innings and you are also risking injury as well.

So yes, I would rather have a power reliever and a guy who may develop into a top flight closer(for the very tiny sampling I saw him, I liked him more than DH, who I really like as a reliever) within a year or so rather than waiting forever to find IF he can become a starter.

[Mackus]

The problem is, its going to take forever for him to build up his innings and you are also risking injury as well.

So yes, I would rather have a power reliever and a guy who may develop into a top flight closer(for the very tiny sampling I saw him, I liked him more than DH, who I really like as a reliever) within a year or so rather than waiting forever to find IF he can become a starter.

I think "forever" is probably too long of an estimate. You're talking 3 years most likely, so sometime in mid 2013.

I think even if you make him a reliever, it'd be a stretch to expect him to be up next season. Not impossible, but definitely not the most probable outcome. So you really are talking about early 2012 for him as a reliever.

I haven't seen him at all, but I don't think its really fair to say its a mistake to develop him as a starter. Its just putting more emphasis on the upside of him potentially becoming a starter rather than the more immediate impact you could potentially get from him if you develop him as a reliever. Getting him up to the big a year earlier would be nice, but so would having an extra starter in the fold rather than a reliever. I know its not a guarantee that he would be able to last as a starter, but it also is not anything close to a guarantee that he'd make an "immediate" impact as a reliever.

[Sports Guy]

I think "forever" is probably too long of an estimate. You're talking 3 years most likely, so sometime in mid 2013.

I think even if you make him a reliever, it'd be a stretch to expect him to be up next season. Not impossible, but definitely not the most probable outcome. So you really are talking about early 2012 for him as a reliever.

I haven't seen him at all, but I don't think its really fair to say its a mistake to develop him as a starter. Its just putting more emphasis on the upside of him potentially becoming a starter rather than the more immediate impact you could potentially get from him if you develop him as a reliever. Getting him up to the big a year earlier would be nice, but so would having an extra starter in the fold rather than a reliever. I know its not a guarantee that he would be able to last as a starter, but it also is not anything close to a guarantee that he'd make an "immediate" impact as a reliever.

Next year, he will be lucky to throw 100 innings. In 2012, he will be pushing 130-140 innings.

In 2013, he will be able to go 170-180 IP.

So, MAYBE you see him for a stint in 2013 at the end of the year but really, that may be more like 2014 before you get to see him.

And all of this assumes health and that he can be good enough to throw those innings.

[Mackus]

Next year, he will be lucky to throw 100 innings. In 2012, he will be pushing 130-140 innings.

In 2013, he will be able to go 170-180 IP.

So, MAYBE you see him for a stint in 2013 at the end of the year but really, that may be more like 2014 before you get to see him.

And all of this assumes health and that he can be good enough to throw those innings.

You're using very pessimistic assumptions in your case for him as a starter but simultaneously using very optimistic assumptions in your case for him as a reliever. That's a discontinuity that isn't really fair if you're trying to have a legitimate discussion.

All the reasons to doubt him as a starter both short term and long term are nearly as prevalent as doubts as a reliever. He wasn't so dominant as a reliever in college that he should be able to breeze through to the majors. He's going to have to get a hell of a lot better if he's going to make it as either a starter or a reliever. If he can make the necessary improvements as a reliever to make himself a candidate to move quickly through the system and be up in the majors very soon, then he would likely be able to make the same improvements as a starter and be up in a few years. He'd be likely to move faster as a reliever for sure, which is why I said he'd likely be looking at early 2012 as opposed to mid 2013, but the value of him in the rotation is far greater than the value of him in the bullpen.

I don't think either approach is a mistake, they are just valuing different things.

[brotherlo38]

I don't understand Sports Guy's urgency to get Klein to the majors ASAP. Bullpen arms are relatively easy to find and we have enough on the roster and in the system to make it through the next few years.

Turning Klein into a starter gives him more innings to refine his mechanics and further develop his secondary pitches. I don't see the rush to have him at the major league level before 2013. I'd rather wait and see if he can develop as a starter where his value would be greater since the Orioles can always move him back into the bullpen if the starter gig doesn't work out.

[Sports Guy]

I don't understand Sports Guy's urgency to get Klein to the majors ASAP. Bullpen arms are relatively easy to find and we have enough on the roster and in the system to make it through the next few years.

Turning Klein into a starter gives him more innings to refine his mechanics and further develop his secondary pitches. I don't see the rush to have him at the major league level before 2013. I'd rather wait and see if he can develop as a starter where his value would be greater since the Orioles can always move him back into the bullpen if the starter gig doesn't work out.

Top flight BP arms are not easy to find.