Justin Upton

[Moose Milligan]

Apparently, the DBacks left the meetings more inclined to trade Upton than when they got there.

AM, get on the phone!!!

Yeah, right.

[Stotle]

You'd trade, Arrieta, Britton, Bergesen, Avery, Pie, and Johnson for Upton? That's a heavy price. It's the three pitchers that I have a hard time parting with. That's pretty much taking the "grow the arms" and trading almost all of them for one player. That leaves you with Guthrie, Matusz, a very unproven Tillman and 2 or 3 huge holes in the rotation. I agree that Upton has the talent to be great, but I think that's just a little too much to give up. Interesting though.

No, after further discussing this in the thread I am not sure I'd give up that package. Two arms, rather than three (Bergie and one of the top tier guys).

[bluedog]

I really don't get the fascination with adding one .850 OPS hitter and gutting both our rotation and minor league depth in the process. How does taking a team with gaping holes at 1b, ss and 3b and adding a player at the same position as our best current player, while trading away 40 - 60% of our projected pitching rotation for the next 4 to 5 years make us better?

It wasn't hitting that carried the O's through a fantastic finish in 2010, it was starting pitching. Upton may be a stud, but adding an outfield bat when we already have 3 potential .800+ OPS guys (Makakis, Scott, Jones) and two other .700 - .800 OPS guys (Reimold, Pie) just doesn't make sense to me.

Add a .750 OPS shortstop or third baseman or an .800 - .850 OPS first baseman and the O's will get a much greater improvement over the 2010 club than adding Upton would provide - and it probably won't cost the team a 5 for 1 (or more!) swap that guts the franchise in the process.

[Crazysilver03]

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/5287948543066112

Gee I wonder who the AL Exec was that had this to say? That sounds exactly like AM IMO...

And in the same tweet they say he is 21, when he is 23.

What the D'Backs want is ridiculous.

[Catch 8]

I really don't get the fascination with adding one .850 OPS hitter and gutting both our rotation and minor league depth in the process. How does taking a team with gaping holes at 1b, ss and 3b and adding a player at the same position as our best current player, while trading away 40 - 60% of our projected pitching rotation for the next 4 to 5 years make us better?

It wasn't hitting that carried the O's through a fantastic finish in 2010, it was starting pitching. Upton may be a stud, but adding an outfield bat when we already have 3 potential .800+ OPS guys (Makakis, Scott, Jones) and two other .700 - .800 OPS guys (Reimold, Pie) just doesn't make sense to me.

Add a .750 OPS shortstop or third baseman or an .800 - .850 OPS first baseman and the O's will get a much greater improvement over the 2010 club than adding Upton would provide - and it probably won't cost the team a 5 for 1 (or more!) swap that guts the franchise in the process.

850 OPS may be just the tip of the iceberg for Justin Upton. I don't want to give away pitching either, but you have to give up something to get something. I try to get a deal done (if possible) without including Matusz or Britton.

[RVAbird]

I really don't get the fascination with adding one .850 OPS hitter and gutting both our rotation and minor league depth in the process. How does taking a team with gaping holes at 1b, ss and 3b and adding a player at the same position as our best current player, while trading away 40 - 60% of our projected pitching rotation for the next 4 to 5 years make us better?

It wasn't hitting that carried the O's through a fantastic finish in 2010, it was starting pitching. Upton may be a stud, but adding an outfield bat when we already have 3 potential .800+ OPS guys (Makakis, Scott, Jones) and two other .700 - .800 OPS guys (Reimold, Pie) just doesn't make sense to me.

Add a .750 OPS shortstop or third baseman or an .800 - .850 OPS first baseman and the O's will get a much greater improvement over the 2010 club than adding Upton would provide - and it probably won't cost the team a 5 for 1 (or more!) swap that guts the franchise in the process.

Honestly, I pretty much agree with you. I love Upton's potential and his age and affordability make him a much better guy to target than an aging first baseman who is close to free agency, but I think some of the proposed deals are getting a little carried away.

When half the teams in baseball are willing to throw out 4 or 5 player deals for a player, I'd have to think whoever gets him will suffer the winner's curse.

If we can get him for guys who, despite being talented, have question marks and/or might be disposable long-term, I would do the deal. If we could get him with some combination of 4 or 5 of Guthrie, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Pie, David Hernandez, and a prospect like Avery/Givens/Joseph etc., then I could be convinced. But I think I've come to the conclusion that I would not make a 4 or 5 player deal centered around Matusz, Wieters, or even Britton, when there's a decent chance that Upton settles in to be a 2-3 win player.

I'm fairly certain that someone will beat the package I'm willing to give up or he won't be traded. AM should certainly be discussing the deal with Arizona, but I will not be disappointed to see him go elsewhere for a king's ransom.

[MrOrange82]

Agreed w/ bluedog and RVAbird.

Taking the following things as true...

1) the O's minor league system isn't that great, and it's paper thin at the upper levels; and,

2) the O's can't (or won't) increase their payroll by 30+ percent in the span of a couple seasons.

...I think O's fans have to deal with the fact that we have neither the means nor the depth to make splashy moves of the kind suggested ITT. We don't have enough legitimate prospects to replace who many posters are talking about trading, and we don't have the wherewithal to replenish the ML roster through FA signings.

As much as I'd like to have a player like Upton, getting someone like that right now at cost guesstimated by many would do more harm than good...IMO, it would all-but-guarantee that we finish with worse records in 2011 and 2012 than we did in 2010.

[SrMeowMeow]

It is pathetic how deep preconceived notions have set in around here. An AL exec says the D-Backs demands are "ridiculous", so since we think MacPhail sucks, that must be MacPhail, and then we use that as a reason to bash MacPhail? Yeah, that checks out. That's one example of many.

What if Towers says "the five player package starts with Matusz, end of discussion"? Do you blame MacPhail for walking away? You shouldn't. And what if MacPhail says "Britton's who you want? Well, that's a dealbreaker, can't move Britton for Upton", do you blame him then? You should. But since we don't know, this ludicrous house of cards built on the stupidest circular evidence is seriously pathetic.

Orioles are out on Upton -> I think the Orioles are dumb -> They're out for a dumb reason -> God, another example of the Orioles being dumb.

Come ON! Make some effort to raise the level of debate here. The Red Sox and Yankees are, quote, "kicking the tires". If that was a quote about the Orioles instead, MacPhail would be getting ten times the grief he is right now. "Hrm hrm kicking the tires typical MacPhail right there am I right?" "Well, you sure are. What an idiot that he can't make impact moves."

This mob mentality and lack of actual analysis is really, really disappointing. If I sound angry over a thread on a message board, it's because I am really disappointed.

[mweb]

I'm saying that is probably the generally accepted valuation. I have not seen enough of recent Britton to feel qualified enough to compare his future potential against Jones's.

Oh ok, so if I read this right, you think Britton is likely to be more valued than Jones.

So perhaps my statement that I'd rather keep Britton than Jones is not so crazy. That's not directed at you Stotle.

[mweb]

I really don't get the fascination with adding one .850 OPS hitter and gutting both our rotation and minor league depth in the process. How does taking a team with gaping holes at 1b, ss and 3b and adding a player at the same position as our best current player, while trading away 40 - 60% of our projected pitching rotation for the next 4 to 5 years make us better?

It wasn't hitting that carried the O's through a fantastic finish in 2010, it was starting pitching. Upton may be a stud, but adding an outfield bat when we already have 3 potential .800+ OPS guys (Makakis, Scott, Jones) and two other .700 - .800 OPS guys (Reimold, Pie) just doesn't make sense to me.

Add a .750 OPS shortstop or third baseman or an .800 - .850 OPS first baseman and the O's will get a much greater improvement over the 2010 club than adding Upton would provide - and it probably won't cost the team a 5 for 1 (or more!) swap that guts the franchise in the process.

Well I think he'll be much more than an .850 OPS guy. You do make good points though; however, if Markakis or preferably Jones is a main piece in the deal, I think it would make a lot more sense than dealing 2 or even more of our starters. Jones plus Arrieta/Tillman/Bergesen/Guthrie plus Hernandez/Johnson plus 1-2 of Avery/Bell/Berry/etc would be good for us imo. Our OF would receive a big upgrade imo and we can afford to lose one of those starters.

[El Gordo]

IMO the O's can't afford to trade more than one of their top SP's. To get Upton we would have to give up at least two and probabaly one of our best RP's too. I don't care if Upton is the second coming of Griffey Jr., he wont get us to the playoffs in the AL East. SP will.

[JTrea81]

And in the same tweet they say he is 21, when he is 23.

What the D'Backs want is ridiculous.

That's Heyman who said he was 21, and the "ridiculous" quote is the exec.

[Hank Scorpio]

Apparently, the DBacks left the meetings more inclined to trade Upton than when they got there.

AM, get on the phone!!!

...and pull down your pants!

[bluedog]

Well I think he'll be much more than an .850 OPS guy. You do make good points though; however, if Markakis or preferably Jones is a main piece in the deal, I think it would make a lot more sense than dealing 2 or even more of our starters. Jones plus Arrieta/Tillman/Bergesen/Guthrie plus Hernandez/Johnson plus 1-2 of Avery/Bell/Berry/etc would be good for us imo. Our OF would receive a big upgrade imo and we can afford to lose one of those starters.

Okay lets say he's a perennial .950 OPS guy. The O's can still improve their offense as much or more by acquiring an .850 OPS 1B or an .800 OPS SS or 3b than by acquiring Upton and those kinds of player can be had without gutting the franchise in the process.

The D-Backs aren't taking back fringe prospects in this kind of deal.

I suspect the conversation for a Upton probably starts with Jones, Matusz AND Machado as they are rumored to be looking for a young replacement in the outfield, a top 10 pitching prospect and a top 10 hitting prospect. Anyone willing to do a 5 for 1 deal starting with those three names for Upton?

[Stotle]

Oh ok, so if I read this right, you think Britton is likely to be more valued than Jones.

So perhaps my statement that I'd rather keep Britton than Jones is not so crazy. That's not directed at you Stotle.

I have no idea what is crazy. When you are talking about player valuations, a lot of folks here need to get off the idea that there are black and white rankings of players across baseball. It's perfectly natural for evaluators to differ on comparable value, and obviously the same holds true for GMs (or we would see trades hammered out pretty quickly).