Justin Upton

[bluedog]

Having thought about this a bit more, I guess my primary concern over trading for Upton is that the O's have to many holes elsewhere that they haven't addressed. What's the point of adding Upton if can't compete anyway because a third of the offense is playing below replacement level?

So in trying to construct a scenario where trading for Upton makes sense, I came up with this:

1. Sign Beltre to 5 / 70

2. Sign Konerko to 3 / 36

3. Sign Nishioka (not sure what this is going to cost, 3 / 18 maybe?)

4. Trade Machado, Tillman, Pie and/or Reimold and some combination of 2 to 3 of our other top 10 prospects (Avery, Givens, Hoes, Klein, Townsend, Hobgood) for Upton (assuming they'll take this - which I question - they will have to be very very high on Machado and like Tillman a lot)

O's roster 2011

c - Wieters

1b - Konerko

2b - Roberts

3b - Beltre

ss - Nishioka

lf - Upton

cf - Jones

rf - Markakis

dh - Scott

sp - Guthrie

sp - Matusz

sp - Bergesen

sp - Arrieta

sp - Britton (after 4 - 5 weeks)

This roster is a potentially a huge improvement offensively over the 2010 squad.

To me, the question all hinges on whether or not the O's can fill their other needs through free agency and whether they can put together some package that doesn't require more than one of our projected young starting pitchers or Jones to pull off.

[Crazysilver03]

That's Heyman who said he was 21, and the "ridiculous" quote is the exec.

Way to miss the point of the post.

What the D'Backs are asking for is a very very high price. The Orioles are in no position to offer a deal to get him.

[waroriole]

4. Trade Machado, Tillman, Pie and/or Reimold and some combination of 2 to 3 of our other top 10 prospects (Avery, Givens, Hoes, Klein, Townsend, Hobgood) for Upton (assuming they'll take this - which I question - they will have to be very very high on Machado and like Tillman a lot)

You can't trade Machado until next year.

[Crazysilver03]

4. Trade Machado, Tillman, Pie and/or Reimold and some combination of 2 to 3 of our other top 10 prospects (Avery, Givens, Hoes, Klein, Townsend, Hobgood) for Upton (assuming they'll take this - which I question - they will have to be very very high on Machado and like Tillman a lot)

First, trading Machado would be a bad decision. Second, no one from the 2010 draft can be traded until a year after they signed, so Machado can't be traded until August 16, 2011.

Question. Once you gut the Orioles' farm system, what do we in case someone gets injured?

[Sports Guy]

First, trading Machado would be a bad decision. Second, no one from the 2010 draft can be traded until a year after they signed, so Machado can't be traded until August 16, 2011.

Question. Once you gut the Orioles' farm system, what do we in case someone gets injured?

Bottom line..you are just screwed for the time being.

And yes, I know that is an awful answer.

However, why is it that Toronto can all of a sudden make a deal for Upton and it not hurt their team? Because they have poured a ton of money into amateur signings and have a ton of picks coming up in a deep draft.

They have accomplished all of that in less than 18 months.

So, if you are the Orioles, you need to be doing the same thing....That way, you can replenish the system quickly and in the meantime, you get a player who may be the best in the game within a few years.

[mweb]

Okay lets say he's a perennial .950 OPS guy. The O's can still improve their offense as much or more by acquiring an .850 OPS 1B or an .800 OPS SS or 3b than by acquiring Upton and those kinds of player can be had without gutting the franchise in the process.

The D-Backs aren't taking back fringe prospects in this kind of deal.

I suspect the conversation for a Upton probably starts with Jones, Matusz AND Machado as they are rumored to be looking for a young replacement in the outfield, a top 10 pitching prospect and a top 10 hitting prospect. Anyone willing to do a 5 for 1 deal starting with those three names for Upton?

To your first paragraph, well why not improve 1B, 3B, and SS to those levels or close to it over the next year or two and get a stud young OF?

No, I would not trade those 3 guys, but I doubt it will cost that much. If they demand that plus more, then walk away.

[Stotle]

I am not supportive of a blank check of prospects to land Upton, but some things that I think are not being adequately taken into account:

1. It isn't just Upton's production that is intriguing, it is the cost. You are paying less than you'd have to pay for Beltre (in cash) for production that isn't that far off from a Fielder/AGon and the potential to be on the level (and higher when you take position and defense into account).

2. Prospects are not always going to pan out. The calculation isn't "what is the worth of player X", it is "what is the worth of player x multiplied by his odds of reaching that production".

3. Prospects that are not a necessary piece of the future should always be expendable. By necessary, I mean highly unlikely to be available through other means:

If BAL is looking at Guthrie/Tillman/Matusz/Britton/Arrieta/Bergesen as potential arms for the 2011 and beyond, they should absolutely be willing to move two of those arms. You should be able to land a back-end arm in FA. You should be able to trade for a back-end arm without much trouble.

If your outfield is Upton/Markakis/Jones then Avery/Angle/Reimold/Scott/Pie are all expendible in some fashion. Depth is excellent, but it is also generally available.

Bullpen arms should never hold up a deal.

I don't know that a deal like this would land Upton, but I don't see how BAL is crippled by trading Britton/Tillman/Hernandez/Pie/Mickolio. Does anyone think that some combination of Reimold/Scott/Angle/Avery couldn't be used in various smaller deals to land a back-end arm, or a 2 yr SS or a young BP arm to replace Hernandez? Upton's relatively small cash outlay for production means you still have plenty of room to add a Fielder or AGon, and you can afford to give Bell a full year or even two to hit at the bottom of your line-up and get comfy.

I think Matusz and Guthrie will be solid producers. I think BAL can draft a college arm capable of reaching the ML by 2013. I think Bergie is a good bet to be a productive arm in the 4/5 slot. I'm also confident that there will be an opportunity to get a 3/4/5 starter through some avenue between this FA, next FA and trades.

If you move a bunch of young talent but are left with a 2012 that looks like this:

2b Roberts

rf Markakis

1b AGon

lf Upton

c Wieters

cf Jones

dh scott/reimold??

ss Hardy??

3b Bell

Matusz

Guthrie

??

Arrieta

Bergesen

Isn't that a pretty darn good base, considering you've added just one big contract (AGon)? Given, say, another $15 -20 million to spend on payroll, shouldn't BAL be able to fill the remaining holes? With this team in generally place for a few years, doesn't that give PLEANTY of time for them to build the system back up? You have Hoes/Schoop/Machado/Givens and the young arms still in the system and 2-3 years to draft and sign more amateur talent.

Ideally, there is a larger buffer -- it would be great if BAL had been doing more to build depth AND ML talent this past year or so. But I guess I just don't see the downside of Upton as being crippling IF he can be had for a comparable package to the one I list. Who's to say that in that trade Tillman/Mickolio don't pan out. At the point, in hindsight, would anyone be sad that we essentially moved one big piece (Britton) and two solid MLers (Hernandez/Pie) for Upton?

[clapdiddy]

I am not supportive of a blank check of prospects to land Upton, but some things that I think are not being adequately taken into account:

1. It isn't just Upton's production that is intriguing, it is the cost. You are paying less than you'd have to pay for Beltre (in cash) for production that isn't that far off from a Fielder/AGon and the potential to be on the level (and higher when you take position and defense into account).

2. Prospects are not always going to pan out. The calculation isn't "what is the worth of player X", it is "what is the worth of player x multiplied by his odds of reaching that production".

3. Prospects that are not a necessary piece of the future should always be expendable. By necessary, I mean highly unlikely to be available through other means:

If BAL is looking at Guthrie/Tillman/Matusz/Britton/Arrieta/Bergesen as potential arms for the 2011 and beyond, they should absolutely be willing to move two of those arms. You should be able to land a back-end arm in FA. You should be able to trade for a back-end arm without much trouble.

If your outfield is Upton/Markakis/Jones then Avery/Angle/Reimold/Scott/Pie are all expendible in some fashion. Depth is excellent, but it is also generally available.

Bullpen arms should never hold up a deal.

I don't know that a deal like this would land Upton, but I don't see how BAL is crippled by trading Britton/Tillman/Hernandez/Pie/Mickolio. Does anyone think that some combination of Reimold/Scott/Angle/Avery couldn't be used in various smaller deals to land a back-end arm, or a 2 yr SS or a young BP arm to replace Hernandez? Upton's relatively small cash outlay for production means you still have plenty of room to add a Fielder or AGon, and you can afford to give Bell a full year or even two to hit at the bottom of your line-up and get comfy.

I think Matusz and Guthrie will be solid producers. I think BAL can draft a college arm capable of reaching the ML by 2013. I think Bergie is a good bet to be a productive arm in the 4/5 slot. I'm also confident that there will be an opportunity to get a 3/4/5 starter through some avenue between this FA, next FA and trades.

If you move a bunch of young talent but are left with a 2012 that looks like this:

2b Roberts

rf Markakis

1b AGon

lf Upton

c Wieters

cf Jones

dh scott/reimold??

ss Hardy??

3b Bell

Matusz

Guthrie

??

Arrieta

Bergesen

Isn't that a pretty darn good base, considering you've added just one big contract (AGon)? Given, say, another $15 -20 million to spend on payroll, shouldn't BAL be able to fill the remaining holes? With this team in generally place for a few years, doesn't that give PLEANTY of time for them to build the system back up? You have Hoes/Schoop/Machado/Givens and the young arms still in the system and 2-3 years to draft and sign more amateur talent.

Ideally, there is a larger buffer -- it would be great if BAL had been doing more to build depth AND ML talent this past year or so. But I guess I just don't see the downside of Upton as being crippling IF he can be had for a comparable package to the one I list. Who's to say that in that trade Tillman/Mickolio don't pan out. At the point, in hindsight, would anyone be sad that we essentially moved one big piece (Britton) and two solid MLers (Hernandez/Pie) for Upton?

Awesome post. I would definitely do the Britton/Tillman/Hernandez/Pie/Mickolio deal.

If they want Jones, maybe you swap out Pie with Jones and Britton with Bergesen.

[Enjoy Terror]

Adam Jones and Chris Young would be the most boringly named outfield in quite some time.

[nevadaO]

The four teams on Justin Upton's no-trade list: #A's, #Royals, #Tigers, #Indians. Can be sent to any other club without his permission. #MLB

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

[JTrea81]

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

Considering he was from Virginia, I wonder if he was an O's fan growing up?

[nevadaO]

Considering he was from Virginia, I wonder if he was an O's fan growing up?

It's certainly possible. There are a ton of Braves fans in southern VA though, and he is from the Norfolk/Chesapeake area.

Of course he could be a fan of any team really.

[El Gordo]

Juston Upton may be the next Griffey Jr. but Seattle had Griffey, ARoid and R.Johnson and couldn't get to the WS. Trading a chunk of our SP for one player, is dumb no matter how good you think he might be, because....“In baseball, if you convince yourself you need a certain player, you’ve already lost. One player doesn’t have that much impact,” said Epstein. “It’s about building organizations. It’s not about adding players"

[JTrea81]

It's certainly possible. There are a ton of Braves fans in southern VA though, and he is from the Norfolk/Chesapeake area.

Of course he could be a fan of any team really.

The only think I saw about him was that he watched Griffey and Jeter the most growing up.

But I couldn't seem to find a favorite team for him...

[Remember The Alomar]

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

Interesting no-trade list. I'm trying to draw some connection between the four. A's, Tigers, and Indians all play in pitcher parks and I guess the Royals are just the Royals.

To be honest, I'm shocked were not part of his NTC. I always thought that Kansas City and Baltimore were places that GM's used as threats against players.