Keith Law hating on the Orioles big time.

[DrungoHazewood]

What I don't like is how Law is speaking on the O's like he's an authority. The overly educated O's fan (many on this site) is probably going to know a lot more about the team than Law.

And we often let that knowledge steer and lull us into conclusions that an unbiased observer might not make. I guarantee that our projections for the O's are going to be more optimistic than a random group of MLB fans without any particular affiliation. The Fangraphs' preseason fans survey projections (mainly fans voting on the teams they follow) are always much, much more optimistic than the projection systems like Marcel and PECOTA.

[Sports Guy]

People that hold Law's belief are also looking at last year like we played consistently that poorly all year.

Last year I feel we VASTLY under-performed in the first half, and probably played a little over our heads in the second half.

But I sincerely disagree with using last year's record on its own as any kind of baseline to judge the potential of the 2011 Orioles.

Isn't this a very homeristic way to look at things?

PROBABLY played a LITTLE over our heads?

Uhh, you think? We played 600 ball for that stretch..That was WAY over our heads.

[carolinaoriole]

And we often let that knowledge steer and lull us into conclusions that an unbiased observer might not make. I guarantee that our projections for the O's are going to be more optimistic than a random group of MLB fans without any particular affiliation. The Fangraphs' preseason fans survey projections (mainly fans voting on the teams they follow) are always much, much more optimistic than the projection systems like Marcel and PECOTA.

I agree with the fact that we are more likely to be optomistic about the Orioles.

I just do not believe that there are many unbiased observers .

[JDubs]

People that hold Law's belief are also looking at last year like we played consistently that poorly all year.

Last year I feel we VASTLY under-performed in the first half, and probably played a little over our heads in the second half.

But I sincerely disagree with using last year's record on its own as any kind of baseline to judge the potential of the 2011 Orioles.

I honestly feel like we somewhat underperformed for the first half and played over our heads the second.

[bej6789]

What I don't like is how Law is speaking on the O's like he's an authority. The overly educated O's fan (many on this site) is probably going to know a lot more about the team than Law.

Couldn't agree more. The entire piece isn't negative, it's downright confrontational. We're talking about players like Cal Ripken Jr., Brady Anderson, etc. that have seen some of these people play and given their opinions on him. When they say that Reynolds is legit, I believe it. If I saw Keith Law on the street -- I wouldn't even recognize him. WHO is Keith Law?

[Sports Guy]

Couldn't agree more. The entire piece isn't negative, it's downright confrontational. We're talking about players like Cal Ripken Jr., Brady Anderson, etc. that have seen some of these people play and given their opinions on him. When they say that Reynolds is legit, I believe it. If I saw Keith Law on the street -- I wouldn't even recognize him. WHO is Keith Law?

Who is more likely to give an unbiased view? Law, Brady or Cal?

[OFFNY]

The only thing I agree with Law on is the Guerrero acquisition. I am one of the few Oriole fans that believes that continuing to develop Reimold and Pie in the outfield is much more important than adding a dangerous but fading bat.

The other side of that argument is that Guerrero provides the Orioles with a true clean-up hitter to protect Nick Marakais.

I hope I’m wrong.

.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with the fact that we are more likely to be optomistic about the Orioles.

I just do not believe that there are many unbiased observers .

There are countless fantasy baseball players who don't care a lick about the Baltimore Orioles, but desperately want to know everything they can about the Orioles so they can crush their buddy Wayne's team.

Besides that, there are a lot of people who write about and research baseball who just don't care one way or the other about the O's, or the AL East, or whatever.

[SilentJames]

Isn't this a very homeristic way to look at things?

PROBABLY played a LITTLE over our heads?

Uhh, you think? We played 600 ball for that stretch..That was WAY over our heads.

They were 500 for the entire second half, I was talking about the entire second half.

And who cares dude, you disagree that this team underperformed in the first half?

This is why there are so many differing predictions on this team, last year we saw the worst team in a decade and a .600 team wear the same uniform. The reality is of course somewhere in between - but to which extreme is it going to be closer?

The point is that the 2010 record isn't necessarily a good "baseline" for judging this team. Especially when you consider the turnover on the roster.

[carolinaoriole]

Who is more likely to give an unbiased view? Law, Brady or Cal?

None of them will give an unbiased view.

[carolinaoriole]

There are countless fantasy baseball players who don't care a lick about the Baltimore Orioles, but desperately want to know everything they can about the Orioles so they can crush their buddy Wayne's team.

Besides that, there are a lot of people who write about and research baseball who just don't care one way or the other about the O's, or the AL East, or whatever.

I disagree. I think they are biased. I am not saying that is bad.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I disagree. I think they are biased. I am not saying that is bad.

In what way?

[hoosiers]

But how is he supposed to improve if he's switching to the American League. I imagine he'll probably just strike out like 300 times this year due to the adjustment of the league. Let's not oversell approach here.

Let's not oversell the league either - Reynolds faced a pretty good pitching staff in SF and a pretty big ballparks in San Diego and LA.

I am interested in the adjustment Reynolds will have to the AL East. It's a tough division, but it does not have a stranglehold on elite pitching.

We'll have to see how much Reynolds' numbers were impacted by his injury and also whether Brady has helped.

[LookinUp]

Whether you want to believe in Pie and/or Reimold is on you. However, it is naive to deny that the talent is there and the possibility of them being long term options is there.

That doesn't mean it will happen..It just means it is possible.

...

But I still think it comes back to the Vlad deal. The salary was too much, it blocked 2 potential long term options and he appears to be breaking down physically. So, you can question that signing.

Just to review Felix Pie:

1. doesn't walk. His OBP/BA split is not good.

2. doesn't hit lefties at all.

3. doesn't have good instincts in the OF, even if he does have good range and arm.

4. can't steal bases because he has bad instincts.

5. isn't a good base runner because he has bad instincts.

Could he progress to the point he's a little valuable as an every day regular? Sure, but he'd be highly BA dependent and those poor instincts wouldn't just go away.

Just to review Nolan Reimold:

1. he will never provide defensive value.

2. he crapped the bed last year in Baltimore and AAA, but admittedly was coming off a bad injury and other issues.

3. he still has massive power

4. he still has good OBP/BA deltas.

5. he's 27 years old.

This is a guy who could very well be a long term DH, but he's also a guy who was so bad last year that he'll have to show the team that he can produce before earning a spot. To rely on Reimold for the first few months of 2011 would be foolish.

What is naive is to deny the limitations of both players...to hope that they reach their ceiling despite the evidence...to put a team that really believes it can win somewhat at the mercy of two guys who may help ruin that chance...to ignore that a 4th OF and/or backup DH can and should get a lot of ABs on this team, particularly since part of our 1B depth comes from these positions.

[LookinUp]

I think the only true damage that was POTENTIALLY done comes back to keeping Scott and Guthrie, coming off of years where their value was likely at its highest.

You've been making this claim about both players for 2-3 years now.

Somehow I doubt we've been offerred long term fixes for either guy. There certainly hasn't been any buzz to that effect.