Buster Olney's offseason plan for the O's

[davearm]

You need to wake up to the facts that:

1) Burrell is not coming to O's,

2) Kotchman has no power at a power position in a division that requires power.

3) Aybar is a error prone SS with good range that can't even hit in a a hitter league and runs himself into too many outs.

4) You don't even know if A Ram is going to be an FA.

Outside of that great plan. I'll keep Miggy and the young starters. You can have Santana and the others.

Dunno about the rest, but IMO he is right about ARam. You should probably cross him off of your wishlist posthaste.

I can't see the Cubs letting him go, nor do I see him wanting to go. If there's one thing Hendry's great at, it's keeping (and paying) the guys he wants to keep (Sosa, Wood, Lee, Ramirez once already).

[Sports Guy]

I am honestly asking for my own knowledge, how is this true? A pitcher isn't in control of wins because he relies on a load of things outside of his own performance. Errors are given directly to a player because they errored......not because of some extenuating circumstance similar to run support or poor defense. I can't even think of a good analogy.

If player A gets to 400 balls and makes 15 errors and player B gets to 300 balls and makes 10 errors, who would you rather have behind you?

[Sports Guy]

Dunno about the rest, but IMO he is right about ARam. You should probably cross him off of your wishlist posthaste.

I can't see the Cubs letting him go, nor do I see him wanting to go. If there's one thing Hendry's great at, it's keeping (and paying) the guys he wants to keep (Sosa, Wood, Lee, Ramirez once already).

You may be right but i think you may be naive(that's actually harsh, not meaning to sound that way Dave) about him leaving. And you know what, if i were a Cubs fan, i would be the same way.

If nothing else, he gets more money from you guys but let's see how high teams are willing to go for him(including the cubbies)

[Sports Guy]

Agree on all fronts. I don't trade Tejada now for Santana/Aybar. No way.

Do you deal Tejada and Benson for Santana, Aybar, Kotchman and Donnelly?

[Mackus]

Does Baseball Prospectus produce defensive rates for minor league players?

Is there any other indication of how good/bad Aybar is defensively other than his error totals and the scouting reports?

[GIVE ME AN O]

If player A gets to 400 balls and makes 15 errors and player B gets to 300 balls and makes 10 errors, who would you rather have behind you?

That seems a little skewed..........I mean the only numbers that have been thrown out are the "46 errors in 162 games" post a bit ago. That seems like alot....or is everybody and their grandmother hitting the ball at Aybar.

[Sports Guy]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/AYBAR19840114A.php

They seem to value Aybar highly...THey have him around a 4 WARP player over the next 5 years.

They feel he will be worth close to 30 million.

His defense seems to be rated highly(125-128) but i am not sure if that is his rate or what.

[davearm]

You may be right but i think you may be naive(that's actually harsh, not meaning to sound that way Dave) about him leaving. And you know what, if i were a Cubs fan, i would be the same way.

If nothing else, he gets more money from you guys but let's see how high teams are willing to go for him(including the cubbies)

Well current conventional wisdom around here is that ARam gets the same 5/$65 deal as DLee got, and this speculation is put to bed very quickly and easily.

We shall see, though.

[Sports Guy]

That seems a little skewed

They aren't skewed. You asked how does my analogy compare. I am asking you...Which guy would you rather have behind you:

Player A: 400 chances...15 errors

Player B: 300 chances...10 errors

[Sports Guy]

Well current conventional wisdom around here is that ARam gets the same 5/$65 deal as DLee got, and this speculation is put to bed very quickly and easily.

We shall see, though.

And if he tests the market and some team(Baltimore, Anaheim, Yanks(if they deal AROD) ) offers 5-6 years for 14-16 million a year, then what?

[GIVE ME AN O]

They aren't skewed. You asked how does my analogy compare. I am asking you...Which guy would you rather have behind you:

Player A: 400 chances...15 errors

Player B: 300 chances...10 errors

Player A...........but it's still not a correct anaolgy. You should compare both players under the same amount of opportunities.

Player A has 6 wins in 10 apearences

Player B has 6 wins in 15 apearences

when you need to be saying

Player A has 12 wins in 15 apearences

Player B has 6 wins in 15 apearences

[davearm]

And if he tests the market and some team(Baltimore, Anaheim, Yanks(if they deal AROD) ) offers 5-6 years for 14-16 million a year, then what?

What I'm saying is that I don't expect things to reach that point.

If I'm wrong about that, and ARam does hit free agency, then all bets are off.

[Flosman]

Do you deal Tejada and Benson for Santana, Aybar, Kotchman and Donnelly?

No nothing has changed No wood no deal. we are giving one of the best 2 or 3 offensive SS in baseball, realitively young, performing well, at a reasonable cost. They are pulling from the top shelf only if I am the GM. Santana/Weaver, Wood, Kotchman/Morales. I might expand giving Gibbons or someone like JJ to make it happen or expand to get Napoli also. We do not have to make this deal, so it should be on our terms.

[Sports Guy]

SG...Why do you want to trade our best player when we can contend next year??

Because we can replace Tejada's offense (not at SS but his overall offense), we can get younger, fill more holes and give us a better chance to win long term.

[Sports Guy]

Player A...........but it's still not a correct anaolgy. You should compare both players under the same amount of opportunities.

Player A has 6 wins in 10 apearences

Player B has 6 wins in 15 apearences

when you need to be saying

Player A has 12 wins in 15 apearences

Player B has 6 wins in 15 apearences

No, this is the wrong way of looking at it.

Pitcher A has a 4 ERA and 18 wins

Pitcher B has a 3 ERA and 12 wins.

Peripheral stats are the same...Who do you want?

Players who get to more balls are more likely to make more errors. It is common sense.