Buster Olney's offseason plan for the O's

[Sports Guy]

What I'm saying is that I don't expect things to reach that point.

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Oh, you think a 5/65 contract would be enough for him not to test the FA waters because he wants to be there? Is that what you are saying?

[puppet]

Why would anybody think buster would be right about this, he rarely is right about anything?

It has nothing to do with being right or wrong, it's just Buster's opinion of he thinks the O's should do.

[Sports Guy]

Can also set us back big time.

Sure can. But i would take my chances with Aybar, Santana, Kotchman, Donnelly and Burrell/Lee/Soriano over Tejada, Benson and maybe one of those big bats.

[DrungoHazewood]

4. Invest in middle relievers. Without a doubt, this is the worst part of the team, and the Orioles should sign three to four veterans. Sometimes it doesn't work out (Rudy Seanez, Julian Tavarez, Steve Karsay), but sometimes it does (Bobby Howry, Ron Villone).

Howdy all, I'm back from the wilds of Alberta and British Columbia...

This bit above is the part I immediately latched onto, and the part no one seems to have said much about. Why do you want to go out and sign a bunch of expensive, overpaid, veteran relievers when Olney admits that they don't work out at least as often as they do? The O's and Leo Mazzone have a pretty good track record of assembling a workable pen out of cheap, often young spare parts. Ray was untested, Birkins was a grade C- prospect, Britton started the year with almost no experience above A ball, Hawkins was given away in a salary dump... and since May the O's pen has been at least average.

I'd invest in veteran middle relievers only when they've filled every other hole in the organization and Peter Angelos still has $30 million lying around burning a hole in his pocket.

[GIVE ME AN O]

No, this is the wrong way of looking at it.

Pitcher A has a 4 ERA and 18 wins

Pitcher B has a 3 ERA and 12 wins.

Peripheral stats are the same...Who do you want?

Players who get to more balls are more likely to make more errors. It is common sense.

I understand this perfectly but you can't call player B less of a player then A because he has had less opportunities. Who says in the next 100 games or opportunities B won't commit 5 or less errors.

And your ERA comparrison is also errored. How many games have the two pitched? If they both pitch 20 games then B is the better player. But if A has pitched 45 games and B has pitched 12 you can't compare the two.

[Sports Guy]

You can probally get Kotchman and Donnelly by giving up Gibbons and maybe a prospect. You can trade Rodrigo for Burrell and sign Soriano. All that without giving up Tejada. And you have Benson for Santana's spot.

I don't disagree with this as another way to go.

Obviously Santana is better long term but I don't think this team, with the core they have and the strides they are making, can afford to have their best player and most popular traded. Not now

I am not sure he is the most popular Oriole...BRob has that title IMO and besides, winning brings back fans.

[Sports Guy]

I understand this perfectly but you can't call player B less of a player then A because he has had less opportunities.

You can say he has less range and gets to less balls, which is the point.

And your ERA comparrison is also errored. How many games have the two pitched? If they both pitch 20 games then B is the better player. But if A has pitched 45 games and B has pitched 12 you can't compare the two.

You are grasping for straws here...Im talking about a single season worth of starts.(30-35) Figured that would be obvious....Essentially, when was Clemens better...2 years ago when he won more games and the Cy Young award or last year when he won less games but was much more dominant.

[Baltimoron]

I understand this perfectly but you can't call player B less of a player then A because he has had less opportunities.

You're ignoring that for a shortstop, chanes are largely a function of range, which is a skill. What is implicit is a comporable number of opportunities to field balls.

Who says in the next 100 games B won't commit 5 or less errors.

Who says A won't either?

The point is errors are a bad stat to look at to value a defensive player, especially for a shortstop. Here, Player A made more errors but is also the better SS.

[cityknight]

Player A...........but it's still not a correct anaolgy. You should compare both players under the same amount of opportunities.

Player A has 6 wins in 10 apearences

Player B has 6 wins in 15 apearences

when you need to be saying

Player A has 12 wins in 15 apearences

Player B has 6 wins in 15 apearences

Aybar has better range, therefore he makes more outs. In the example that you don't like, Aybar has more chances not because of luck, but because he's getting to balls that Tejada or whomever wouldn't get to, and would therefor not make an error on, he's making more outs than the fielder that's making less errors, as hits are taken away.

[GIVE ME AN O]

You are grasping for straws here...

Figured that would be obvious....

At no time did you ever state that they have played the same amount of games...........so no it is not obvious. The limited range thing I understand and can agree with.

And it was the fact the Clemens could pick his starts and played predominatly at home that he did not win the Cy Young. I mean an ERA below 2 was just sick but lets not pretend he didn't have an advantage. It's the same reason Ortiz SHOULD NOT WIN the MVP.

[Sports Guy]

At no time did you ever state that they have played the same amount of games...........so no it is not obvious. The limited range thing I understand and can agree with.

And it was the fact the Clemens could pick his starts and played predominatly at home that he did not win the Cy Young. I mean an ERA below 2 was just sick but lets not pretend he didn't have an advantage. It's the same reason Ortiz SHOULD NOT WIN the MVP.

This is as bad a theory as i have ever seen on here.

[GIVE ME AN O]

Aybar has better range, therefore he makes more outs. In the example that you don't like, Aybar has more chances not because of luck, but because he's getting to balls that Tejada or whomever wouldn't get to, and would therefor not make an error on, he's making more outs than the fielder that's making less errors, as hits are taken away.

I understand that, but when errors are being determined........I have always been under the impression that for the most part those factors are taken into acount. I mean you hear it all the time when watching games.....let's see how this one is going to be judged. Will it be awarded a hit or an error. I understand the whole opportunity thing...........but I guess what I am trying to say is that I still think errors are a pretty good indication of someones defense. someone doesn't commit 15 more errors in a season becasue they reach more balls..........hence the Ripken Gullen comparrison.

[davearm]

Oh, you think a 5/65 contract would be enough for him not to test the FA waters because he wants to be there? Is that what you are saying?

That's what I'm saying.

[GIVE ME AN O]

This is as bad a theory as i have ever seen on here.

Your ridiculous.........why so condesending. Grabbing for straws. Thought it was obvious. As bad of a theory. Sure just about as bad as trade everyone on the Orioles for every prospect on the Angels team. Your a genius.

[Sports Guy]

Your ridiculous.........why so condesending. Grabbing for straws. Thought it was obvious. As bad of a theory. Sure just about as bad as trade everyone on the Orioles for every prospect on the Angels team. Your a genius.

Whose theory was this? Are you suggesting the best pitcher of our generation and arguably the best competitor in sports only pitched to crap teams?

Did one of your precious sportswriters tell you this?