Machado to Frederick on June 23

[Sports Guy]

I was just reading yesterday in BA's prospect 2011 book that one reason why Tampa Bay is so successful at developing batters is that they keep the players at each level for one year most of the times. Now you can certainly argue this approach and it is tough to proof something like this statistically but for me this is one reason why it seems that some Oriole players do not seem to have the fundamentals once they play in the Majors and seem rushed....

The problem with this is if you aren't learning anything at the level you are at and are just going through the motions, it doesn't really help your game.

[allstar1579]

The problem with this is if you aren't learning anything at the level you are at and are just going through the motions, it doesn't really help your game.

Yeah I was going to chime in on this earlier but I forgot. People get caught up in stats as being the only indicator, but there are actual development benchmarks teams are looking for at certain levels. Once they show they can do whatever the team is looking for, they will move up sometimes. It's like Matusz starting in FRD instead of Bowie, once he showed that he could use his FB more and get a better % compared to his curve/change they moved him up.

I actually wouldn't have been surprised if Machado started in FRD this year. It would have been a teeny bit aggressive, but he's advanced enough it's not a big stretch.

Might as well let them learn and adjust at the higher level, and keep in mind there are going to be some signings from this draft that might end up hitting Delmarva soon, and they'd need space there.

[Skywalker76]

Did they give a reason? Or was this a causal link or was this simply measured through statistics? If its just statistics...you might have a correlation effect,. which is less meaningful and probably means Tampa is just better at drafting players. Tampa rushed Price and Longoria, neither of those players seemed to struggle, but had years they were promoted to three different levels. The argument they were both promoted three levels and are now all stars doesn't mean Tampa should promote guys 3 levels every year. That's what I'm trying to get at. They don't make every player play at every level all year before they promote them. It's clearly a case by case basis and they use a different result test than OPS, the only results available in most instances to fans.

I will look it up but it was mentioned in the team record of the Tampa Rays and their top 30 prospect list.

[Scrat1]

Machado: 1-4. June OPS is down to .501. I don't believe at all that he doesn't have anything left to learn in Delmarva.

[flashjordnk]

Machado: 1-4. June OPS is down to .501. I don't believe at all that he doesn't have anything left to learn in Delmarva.

Can you tell me anything about the outs? Were they ground outs? Fly outs? What were the counts? Who was he facing? To say a guy went 1-4 so he doesn't have anything to prove at that level, I'm sure there were plenty of days where guys went 1-4 and then were promoted.

The O's aren't the best developers in the world, but you using individual box scores and small sample sizes without peripherals to back it up, really aren't all that compelling either.

[Scrat1]

Can you tell me anything about the outs? Were they ground outs? Fly outs? What were the counts? Who was he facing? To say a guy went 1-4 so he doesn't have anything to prove at that level, I'm sure there were plenty of days where guys went 1-4 and then were promoted.

The O's aren't the best developers in the world, but you using individual box scores and small sample sizes without peripherals to back it up, really aren't all that compelling either.

Obviously the point isn't the 1-4. That was just reporting what he did last night. To focus on that is disingenuous. The point is the .501 OPS. It's true I don't know what sort of outs he's making, but no one was asking what sort of hits he was getting in April or May, either. Why is it that when he's hot, it's because he's too advanced for Low A, but when he's slumping, it's because of bad luck? That's ridiculous. Luck very well may be a part of it, but I have trouble believing it's the driving force behind a .501 OPS. A contributor, sure, but the primary cause? No, I don't buy that.

For the record, I think Machado is going to be just fine. Same with Schoop. But I think the promotions are unwarranted.

[Sports Guy]

Obviously the point isn't the 1-4. That was just reporting what he did last night. To focus on that is disingenuous. The point is the .501 OPS. It's true I don't know what sort of outs he's making, but no one was asking what sort of hits he was getting in April or May, either. Why is it that when he's hot, it's because he's too advanced for Low A, but when he's slumping, it's because of bad luck? That's ridiculous. Luck very well may be a part of it, but I have trouble believing it's the driving force behind a .501 OPS. A contributor, sure, but the primary cause? No, I don't buy that.

For the record, I think Machado is going to be just fine. Same with Schoop. But I think the promotions are unwarranted.

Its a SSS...No one is saying that he looks great up there and is just hitting into bad luck...But it certainly COULD be the case.

The point is, just looking at the box score doesn't tell the whole story.

Zero doubt he should be promoted.

Now, he only has 2 walks in his last 10 games and has struck out 8 times(only 15 times before the last 10 games). So, that would led me to believe that he probably isn't seeing the ball as well right now as he was.

[WV O's]

Its a SSS...No one is saying that he looks great up there and is just hitting into bad luck...But it certainly COULD be the case.

The point is, just looking at the box score doesn't tell the whole story.

Zero doubt he should be promoted.

Now, he only has 2 walks in his last 10 games and has struck out 8 times(only 15 times before the last 10 games). So, that would led me to believe that he probably isn't seeing the ball as well right now as he was.

just hope his knee is ok. Everything else will fall into place.

[flashjordnk]

Obviously the point isn't the 1-4. That was just reporting what he did last night. To focus on that is disingenuous. The point is the .501 OPS. It's true I don't know what sort of outs he's making, but no one was asking what sort of hits he was getting in April or May, either. Why is it that when he's hot, it's because he's too advanced for Low A, but when he's slumping, it's because of bad luck? That's ridiculous. Luck very well may be a part of it, but I have trouble believing it's the driving force behind a .501 OPS. A contributor, sure, but the primary cause? No, I don't buy that.

For the record, I think Machado is going to be just fine. Same with Schoop. But I think the promotions are unwarranted.

When your OPS is over 1.000 you don't have to ask what kind of hits the guy is getting. You know they are quality. SG makes a good point about the K/BB ratios, I don't like the sound of that.

All I'm saying is, if you want to make the case about promotions being unwarranted, you have to use more than OPS, and injury shortened months as a your basis for not being warranted.

As for you bolded part, I think the O's should move the top level prospects quickly and like I mentioned with Longoria and Price, if you're good enough even Tampa can move you three systems in one year. The greats are going to be great and sometimes you have to test them to find out, I'm ok with that. If you want to discuss the promotions of other players, on an individual basis I think that's OK. But we all think Machado is going to hit at both levels (Delmarva and Frederick, including you), if that's the case, the promotion should happen. Baseball is streaky, not all players are always going to be crushing the ball, but if you think someone has the tools to succeed at the next level and he's learned what you wanted to him at the level below that, that's enough for me.

I also imagine Machado's confidence in his knee isn't 100%. But no need for the O's to let him dwell on that and keep thinking about it. They need to show him they think his bat and his confidence are what they trust, and even if he's in a bit of a rehab stage...they still trust the results they saw earlier this year.

[Scrat1]

Its a SSS...No one is saying that he looks great up there and is just hitting into bad luck...But it certainly COULD be the case.

It's 47 at bats. Small sample, sure, but it's also almost exactly 33% of his season. His strong start was only just over a month, which, in my eyes, would also qualify as a small sample. What's sauce for the goose...

Zero doubt he should be promoted.

Even Stockstill wouldn't agree with this sort of absolute.

[Sports Guy]

It's 47 at bats. Small sample, sure, but it's also almost exactly 33% of his season. His strong start was only just over a month, which, in my eyes, would also qualify as a small sample. What's sauce for the goose...

But again, this is where scouting and things like that play a part in this decision. Looking at raw stats is only part of the decision.

Even Stockstill wouldn't agree with this sort of absolute

And?

[Scrat1]

When your OPS is over 1.000 you don't have to ask what kind of hits the guy is getting. You know they are quality. SG makes a good point about the K/BB ratios, I don't like the sound of that.

This is the exact hypocrisy I mentioned in my earlier post. When an OPS is over 1.000 you don't have to ask what sort of hits the guy is getting, but when he's hitting .500 you do? That's obviously not true. In both instances luck can be a factor.

I understand scouting is an important, even the most important factor. And as I said earlier in the thread, if it were just Machado or Schoop in a vacuum, I wouldn't be so skeptical of the move. But this has been an ongoing thing.

[Scrat1]

And?

My point is you're sacrificing intellectual honesty for a rhetorical point. Saying "there's zero doubt" isn't an actual argument. It's just a statement meant to make my position look like an insane outlier. It's not actual going to convince me of anything. The fact that Stockstill wouldn't agree with your assertion deflates it, because obviously there is some doubt, as there is with any sort of decision of this nature. To say otherwise is just rhetorical posturing.

[Sports Guy]

My point is you're sacrificing intellectual honesty for a rhetorical point. Saying "there's zero doubt" isn't an actual argument. It's just a statement meant to make my position look like an insane outlier. It's not actual going to convince me of anything. The fact that Stockstill wouldn't agree with your assertion deflates it, because obviously there is some doubt, as there is with any sort of decision of this nature. To say otherwise is just rhetorical posturing.

I don't care if Stockstill agrees with me or not..What has he done to prove he is some authority?

The bottom line is most people think he should have been in Frederick to begin with and he was tearing it up at a level he seemed to be too good for.

They have already announced he is moving up, so obviously they agree that he should be up despite a 10 game slump coming back from an injury.

[flashjordnk]

This is the exact hypocrisy I mentioned in my earlier post. When an OPS is over 1.000 you don't have to ask what sort of hits the guy is getting, but when he's hitting .500 you do? That's obviously not true. In both instances luck can be a factor.

I understand scouting is an important, even the most important factor. And as I said earlier in the thread, if it were just Machado or Schoop in a vacuum, I wouldn't be so skeptical of the move. But this has been an ongoing thing.

Fair enough, there is a bit of luck in there. I'm just saying when you're OPS'ing 1.000 you know how hard a guy is hitting the ball. Usually soft slow fly balls don't turn into homers, and that's not what we were hearing coming out of camp earlier. In these instances we know he's hitting it hard and being successful, but then again, you're right I should probably want to know more about how he got those hits. See the LD% and the HR/FB%, his contact rates, how he's hitting breaking balls. All stuff I'd like to know more about, you're absolutely correct.

The flip side of that is that is a line drive that might have been a double that is turned into an out, and one homer just missing the foul pole tells us he's still hitting the ball hard as he was before. We can see a growing trend in the authority in which Machado is hitting the ball and derive something from that. In this instance I'd look at a lot of things in the month that we as stat consumers don't have access to in the minor leagues. I'd trust those who are looking know what they need to know about it. But you're right I am to some degree being hypocritical here.

Is there a specific guy that you'd point to as being 'ruined' by this progressive movement? Or is it more a general feel? Could the lack of prospects moving up have more to do with our draft strategy and our guys, and not the promotional scale? I think we can run the danger of having some causation/correlation problems here. If you can see a trend where the promotions before development are tied to specific things...I'd be interested to hear what that is. Not developing pitch recognition soon enough. Not developing power. Not doing something. But you're simply saying, moving guys fast isn't working here, it is working there. Therefore we should too. I'm just not sure that's a valuable piece to the conversation as a analytic tool.