Two part Melewski interview with AM about international operations.

[LookinUp]

Baseball has become a joke when it comes to having an even playing field but my real fear is even if it was even, the Orioles wouldn't do enough to be good in that environment as well.

Our only hope might be the negotiations owners are slowly taking part in right now. Perhaps this is the only way PA and his lawyering can help...in leveling the playing field across baseball, or at least for the O's.

With that being said, this entire thread makes me sick. I've already posted an open letter to Angelos, but MacPhail needs one too. His philosophy is not something that can be defended because his entire defense is based on 1) the $4 million straw man argument that TGO destroyed and 2) that we spend more in the Rule IV draft.

If AM wants to lean on the Rule IV draft, compare what we do/spend after our #1 pick with the rest of the division or league. I bet we're way behind. Unfortunately, while we do spend more recently in the Rule IV draft (a good thing), we generally do so on 1 top 5 talent, 0 supplemental picks, often 0 2nd round picks, and a couple of later overslots who are by definition more risky. This is the law of diminishing returns. You can compare efficiency of $$'s spent in the Rule IV draft and IFA, but nobody can tell me the talent available after round 5ish in the Rule IV draft is an efficient use of money. I'd bet paying 16 y.o. $4 million (which most people aren't really advocating) is more efficient than signing several Michael Ohlmann's and Cam Coffees to $1 million deals.

In the end, we're basically putting all of our eggs in the basket of the top 5 pick. Now, when Rowell, Snyder, Hobgood or someone else flames out, what are we left with?

[The Maestro]

We do not have a lack of presence. According to Frobbys post, the Orioles spent 1.18 mil in 2010. And we out spent the Yankees by 2.5 mil in the rule 4. My point is, it does not matter where these players come from. There was a thread on here not long ago that I can't find, about he top 30 international signings all time and the results were very poor. It showed that in fact, the large contracts for international players did not pan out. I for one, would not be happy seeing us spend 8 mil signing international prospects, if it ment taking away from money we can spend on Rule 4 players.

I still dont see why we cant do both. With all the top 5 picks we've seemed to have recently, doesn't it concern you that our minor league system isn't any better than it is? And if we're going to hang our hat on spending 1.18M internationally, then we've already lost the battle.

[Frobby]

In the end, we're basically putting all of our eggs in the basket of the top 5 pick. Now, when Rowell, Snyder, Hobgood or someone else flames out, what are we left with?

I just want to point out that neither Snyder (13) nor Rowell (9) was a top 5 pick.

[LookinUp]

I just want to point out that neither Snyder (13) nor Rowell (9) was a top 5 pick.

Of course they were, but the point stands. He's too reliant on top picks. If they all were going to turn into Evan Longoria, that might make sense. Matusz and Wieters stand as evidence that they don't. If we're going to be nearly solely reliant on the Rule IV draft, we need supplemental picks and several more overslot guys. We need to out-commit our competition, significantly, after our first pick because they're out-committing us internationally and/or in free agency.

[Frobby]

Of course they were, but the point stands. He's too reliant on top picks. If they all were going to turn into Evan Longoria, that might make sense. Matusz and Wieters stand as evidence that they don't. If we're going to be nearly solely reliant on the Rule IV draft, we need supplemental picks and several more overslot guys. We need to out-commit our competition, significantly, after our first pick because they're out-committing us internationally and/or in free agency.

Yes, I agree with what you are saying here. I just wanted to make sure the facts were straight.

[El Gordo]

The article I cited that shows the Orioles have the lowest number of international players in their top 30 prospects, also made this observation, which to me seems pretty important:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/03/evaluating-international-signings-points-to-farm-system-health/

I'm afraid this is where the rubber meets the road. While it seems theoretically possible to build an excellent farm system by allocating a greater than average percentage of resources on domestic talent instead of foreign talent, in practice the results show that to do it that way, you'll have to beat long odds.

If what Tony says is accurate, then before AM we had virtually no presence in the DR, a 20, 000K cap and almost no international players in the system. Now we spend 1,18 M, comparable to TB and Boston but not NY and TOR, 17th in ML and having spent 300,000K on a player recently. So while we don't have enough int'l players that a healthy farm sysytem should, haven't we made great strides in 4 years compared to where we were? Wouldn't the fact that we have only been at it for 4 years account for the lack of int'l players amoung the our top 30? The issue is that AM doesn't feel it is effective to spend as much on signing bonuses to individual players in the DR as one would in the rule 4, not that he isn't spending anything on international players, and doesn't believe in it.

[Frobby]

If what Tony says is accurate, then before AM we had virtually no presence in the DR, a 20, 000K cap and almost no international players in the system. Now we spend 1,18 M, comparable to TB and Boston but not NY and TOR, 17th in ML and having spent 300,000K on a player recently. So while we don't have enough int'l players that a healthy farm sysytem should, haven't we made great strides in 4 years compared to where we were? Wouldn't the fact that we have only been at it for 4 years account for the lack of int'l players amopng the our top 30? The issue is that AM doesn't feel it is effective to spend as much on signing bonuses to individual players in the DR as one would in the rule 4, not that he isn't spending anything on international players, and doesn't believe in it.

Well, the Orioles have had at least one team in the DSL since at least 2006. The 37 players on that team didn't come out of nowhere, and they didn't cost zero. I do think some steps have been taken to improve our DR situation, but we weren't at zero when MacPhail arrived and it is certainly debatable whether MacPhail has moved fast enough.

[NewMarketSean]

What/How did the Cubs do internationally, specifically in the DR, under MacPhail?

I wish davearm was still around...

[Frobby]

From the Fall of 2004:

The available evidence indicates that the Orioles are faring poorly in the international arena. The Birds' Dominican baseball school, led by Carlos Bernhardt, has produced but a trickle of usable talent in the last five years. How many of DeMacio's international signees are major-league-caliber prospects? After Daniel Cabrera and Eddy Rodríguez (both signed in 1999) the roster looks mighty thin. In the 1990s, the Orioles were able to snare quality talent from unlikely sources such as Aruba and Australia, but not anymore. Not only that, but the Orioles have no significant Asian scouting presence, no pipeline to the baseball lodes of Venezuela, no forays across the Atlantic—in short, no discernible scouting advantages outside of North America. As it batted for a low average in the amateur draft, the organization needed to supplement its talent through international scouting. But it failed to make tangible overseas progress under DeMacio.

http://www.oobleck.com/orioles/archives/2004/10/demacios_time_runs_out.html

[DrungoHazewood]

How many of those were signed to big bonuses? MacPhail has made clear that he is not ignoring Latin America, he is ignoring the pool of players who are getting mutiple million dollar signing bonuses and don't play in games. That's a very tiny fraction of the players who are signed internationally each year. I forget which thread it was in, but one of our posters recently tracked down a list of the top 25 international signing bonuses of all time, and only one all-star caliber player, Miguel Cabrera, was on the list.

From his record it seems that he's not going to be a player in any prospect who's getting a bonus much over $500k.

[El Gordo]

Given what Tony said you can't rule out PA's intransignece on this issue. AM has said PA has given him everything he has asked for, but one of the tricks of his job is knowing what he can ask for, before he asks.

[El Gordo]

From the Fall of 2004:

http://www.oobleck.com/orioles/archives/2004/10/demacios_time_runs_out.html

Doesn't sound like much of anything before AM.

[LookinUp]

Given what Tony said you can't rule out PA's intransignece on this issue. AM has said PA has given him everything he has asked for, but one of the tricks of his job is knowing what he can ask for, before he asks.

Right. Nobody anywhere likes Angelos's role in this.

On the other hand, Int'l FA and the Rule IV draft don't happen in a vaccuum. AM is misallocating limited resources in the form of expensive relievers and over the hill position players.

I don't care how he obtains talent as long as it's competitive. The bottom line is we haven't seen any plan that actually does better at acquiring talent than our competitors. Fail.

[El Gordo]

Right. Nobody anywhere likes Angelos's role in this.

On the other hand, Int'l FA and the Rule IV draft don't happen in a vaccuum. AM is misallocating limited resources in the form of expensive relievers and over the hill position players.

I don't care how he obtains talent as long as it's competitive. The bottom line is we haven't seen any plan that actually does better at acquiring talent than our competitors. Fail.

I agree with this criticism, and would like to have seen Melewski ask AM about this.

[LookitsPuck]

I agree with this criticism, and would like to have seen Melewski ask AM about this.

You and me both.

This organizations inability to sign relievers is very disturbing. I know they're a viable bunch, but why is it that we can't find any consistency? Uehara was signed as a starting pitcher, and now he's having success/health because he's back in the role that he's used to (i.e. relief). Johnson is being overworked right now, but he's been pretty darn reliable/solid this year and past. But aside from them, what gives?

Also, I'm not faulting the D-Lee signing entirely, there wasn't much out there and I still think he was the best option [aside from us just missing out on VMart]. That said, who is suggesting to MacPhail to sign guys like Atkins, Vlad, etc.