Source: MLB players, owners close in on new 5-year labor deal Read more: http://sportsillustrated.c

[DrungoHazewood]

Premium young athletes could become more motivated to take up basketball, football, soccer ? basically any sport that isn't baseball.

This is the main, long-term issue I have with the deal. I guess I haven't seen the full text of the new int'l rules, but they're taking money out of player acquisition. No question on the draft side, less money. It's an economic disincentive. It will absolutely, without question mean fewer talented players playing baseball. What's an unknown is the magnitude of this, and it could be anything from trivially minor, to huge. We'll see in a few years. But in an environment where baseball's big advantage over other sports has been money, and where sports like soccer are playing an ever-increasing role in the American sports landscape, this might be a bad time to tell kids "take what we give you or go home."

This isn't the best example in terms of eventual outcome, but Darnell McDonald would never have played a professional inning under this CBA. The O's couldn't have gone over slot to sign him, probably wouldn't have drafted him at all because of his bonus demands and leverage of a big-time football scholarship, and he'd have been a running back at U of Texas, and probably the NFL.

[SilentJames]

This is the main, long-term issue I have with the deal. I guess I haven't seen the full text of the new int'l rules, but they're taking money out of player acquisition. No question on the draft side, less money. It's an economic disincentive. It will absolutely, without question mean fewer talented players playing baseball. What's an unknown is the magnitude of this, and it could be anything from trivially minor, to huge. We'll see in a few years. But in an environment where baseball's big advantage over other sports has been money, and where sports like soccer are playing an ever-increasing role in the American sports landscape, this might be a bad time to tell kids "take what we give you or go home."

This isn't the best example in terms of eventual outcome, but Darnell McDonald would never have played a professional inning under this CBA. The O's couldn't have gone over slot to sign him, probably wouldn't have drafted him at all because of his bonus demands and leverage of a big-time football scholarship, and he'd have been a running back at U of Texas, and probably the NFL.

One could argue that Darnell McDonald would be better off in the NFL.

[erb8472]

It doesn't sound like it's going to be that bad.

MLB won't get to unilaterally decide the worth of draft picks going forward, though. It negotiated the values with the union, and they reportedly (and not surprisingly) will be much higher. Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman and CBS Sports' Danny Knobler tweeted that the aggregate pools would range from $4.5 million to $11.5 million, depending on how many picks a team had and where they fell. Yahoo's Jeff Passan tweeted that the total pool for all 30 teams would be around $200 million.

If you use MLB's 2011 slot recommendations, 20 of the 30 teams would have paid a 100 percent tax on their overage and forfeited two first-round picks. If the total for the first 10 rounds rises from last year's $133 million to the reported $200 million, that's a 50 percent increase. Extrapolating the 2011 numbers, just six clubs would have received the maximum penalty.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/11/draft-cap-may-not-be-so-harsh/

[csgordos]

From Passan on Twitter:

The slots for the Nos. 1-4 picks in the draft are going to be $7.2M, $6.2M, $5.2M and $4.2M. Teams are not, however, required to spend that.

I love this line. Seriously, what good agent out there will let their client sign for less now that it is out there in print? Could you imagine the outrage on this board if the Orioles had only offered Bundy 2.5M or 3 or even 3.5 and didn't sign him because he wanted $4.2M. Better news is that fact that if you are a top 4 pick you don't even need to pay an agent to get the deal done and can keep the money for yourself. If your son was a top 4 pick why would you even get an agent and have to split the upfront money? Sign the agent after you make the deal.

[Sports Guy]

This is the main, long-term issue I have with the deal. I guess I haven't seen the full text of the new int'l rules, but they're taking money out of player acquisition. No question on the draft side, less money. It's an economic disincentive. It will absolutely, without question mean fewer talented players playing baseball. What's an unknown is the magnitude of this, and it could be anything from trivially minor, to huge. We'll see in a few years. But in an environment where baseball's big advantage over other sports has been money, and where sports like soccer are playing an ever-increasing role in the American sports landscape, this might be a bad time to tell kids "take what we give you or go home."

This isn't the best example in terms of eventual outcome, but Darnell McDonald would never have played a professional inning under this CBA. The O's couldn't have gone over slot to sign him, probably wouldn't have drafted him at all because of his bonus demands and leverage of a big-time football scholarship, and he'd have been a running back at U of Texas, and probably the NFL.

I think you are really reaching here.

First of all, they can go to pro ball, making a lot of money at age 18 in baseball.

In the NBA, they have to go to college and be there for at least 2 years(this will be the rule once the new CBA is finally done) and then they don't get paid nearly as much as the pro baseball player.

In the NFL, you have to wait 3 years, come into a league with a short career span, tons of injuries and contracts that are not guaranteed.

Also, the NFL just changed their rookie wage scale and it dropped in a big way...is that going to stop players from going to the NFL and if so, doesn't that stand to reason that some of them will go to play baseball?

You can't have that both ways.

[csgordos]

I think you are really reaching here.

First of all, they can go to pro ball, making a lot of money at age 18 in baseball.

In the NBA, they have to go to college and be there for at least 2 years(this will be the rule once the new CBA is finally done) and then they don't get paid nearly as much as the pro baseball player.

In the NFL, you have to wait 3 years, come into a league with a short career span, tons of injuries and contracts that are not guaranteed.

Also, the NFL just changed their rookie wage scale and it dropped in a big way...is that going to stop players from going to the NFL and if so, doesn't that stand to reason that some of them will go to play baseball?

You can't have that both ways.

I think there has been a concerted effort to change the % of pay for salaries from unproven players to proven players in all sports. It becomes less of a gamble in all sports to acquire talent if the costs are equal to the proven level of play. I think the other thing that will happen in baseball will be that teams will look to lock-up their young stars more frequently. Thus you will have less 27 and 28 year old impact players coming to market in the future. Especially if you are drafting and signing more 3rd year college players vs. HS talent. I could be wrong on this, but it seems a much more efficient way of utilizing a limited payroll structure. What this also means is that it will be more important to have the best scouting staff to sign the best talent as you may only have one good shot at getting the player during their prime. If they sign out of college at 21 and make the majors at 23, the team will have control of them until they are 29. Something to keep in mind if there are less HS talent being drafted and signed vs. players going to college first.

[SurhoffRules]

So far as I can tell from what's been released so far, outside of the changes to the business side of things, and a bit of reformatting to divisions and playoffs, here are the possible changes to the on the field action.

1) MLB rosters will expand to 26 for some doubleheaders.

2) Instant replay will be expanded to include fair/foul plays and "trap" plays, subject to discussions between MLB and the umpires.

Number 1 find the more interesting of the two and I curious to hear more about how it will be implemented.

[Frobby]

I think the new system will put more of an emphasis on having good scouts, and less emphasis on being willing to commit financial resources to the draft. You aren't going to have "overslot" guys that you can acquire simply by being more willing than another team to pay them. So, you'd better be able to pick the right guy. If I were the Orioles, I'd be spending whatever it took to have a really topnotch scouting department. There's no slotting or spending caps there.

[CrimsonTribe]

I think the new system will put more of an emphasis on having good scouts, and less emphasis on being willing to commit financial resources to the draft. You aren't going to have "overslot" guys that you can acquire simply by being more willing than another team to pay them. So, you'd better be able to pick the right guy. If I were the Orioles, I'd be spending whatever it took to have a really topnotch scouting department. There's no slotting or spending caps there.

In addition to good scouts, I think it will add even more emphasis on development. That could be the new place to get a competitive advantage.

[Frobby]

In addition to good scouts, I think it will add even more emphasis on development. That could be the new place to get a competitive advantage.

I agree with you, although it isn't really a "new" place to gain an advantage, it's just that resources may be redeployed there since the draft spend tactic is no longer available to the same extent as before.

[hoosiers]

I think there has been a concerted effort to change the % of pay for salaries from unproven players to proven players in all sports.

Agree with this the most. IMO, this should end the crazy $ in the international market as well as reducing the net talent haul of the NYY and BoSox there. Most of these international kids and their agents don't know the difference between $500k, $2M and $4M anyway. I do not believe kids in the Dominican are going to start walking around with basketballs because of these changes.

Changes in the US draft are for the better as well. Kids are going to be offered what teams value them at. No more - "pay me $1M or I go to college" from a third round talent. That talent has to decide if he'll take the $500k that he's valued at or go to college.

Seems like the changes will lower the cost to teams of acquiring talent much more than it will reduce the pool of players seeking to be signed.

The prior system was set up for big spenders and the Os could have but did not use that system to their advantage. As a result, I think these changes will generally benefit the Os relative to the BoSox and NYY.

[CrimsonTribe]

I agree with you, although it isn't really a "new" place to gain an advantage, it's just that resources may be redeployed there since the draft spend tactic is no longer available to the same extent as before.

It may not be a new place to gain an advantage, but it may lead to a larger focus on techniques/methods/systems for developing players.

[Can_of_corn]

They are only eligible if they do not exceed their signing bonus pool.

Would the next team in line take their spot in the lottery or would the remaining teams have a better chance at an additional pick?

[Crazysilver03]

I like the new compensation system. I am glad the Elias Rankings are being thrown out the window.

And I like the idea that a player traded mid year can't net you a draft pick anymore. Yes the Orioles should have been playing this game, but it takes away another advantage from the Yankees/Red Sox.

[Skeletor]

I'd imaging we will see a busier trade deadline, mainly for mid-tier pending FAs.