Tillman ready for promotion; but has to wait

[Lucky Jim]

May 26: 6 IP. 2 ER. 5 hits. 3 BBs. 6 Ks: Solid performance.... but certainly not special.

May 31: 8 IP. 0 ER. 1 hit. 1 BB. 9 Ks: Yes, this is dominant.

June 6: 6.2 IP. 2 ER. 1 hit. 1 BB. 7 Ks: Certainly a very good performance as well. But he did give up a HR too.

20.2 IP 7H 4R 5BB 22K

That's pretty dominant.

Certainly, Tillman shouldn't be that guy yet.

This is hardly "certain." If Peterson thinks he's in a good place mechanically, they should do what they see fit.

It should be noted that Tillman's FIP is under 3.20 at this point.

[glenn__davis]

As many are aware, I've been a big Tillman supporter for years, and I've been patient. I'm not rushing to see him on the MLB roster, though, and perfectly accept the argument that it can't hurt to see him repeat his positive performance for a couple of more starts.

I do, however, think it's useless to cite his statistics for the year as an argument for keeping him down. I can guarantee the Orioles won't be looking at that. Tillman is Exhibit A for Rick Peterson, and the fact is that some early inconsistency w/ results should have been expected. If they like what they see with how he's throwing, those inconsistent results won't matter.

Also, if you want to truly have an opinion on what to do with Tillman, watch him pitch. At a minimum, his 8 inning start is on MiLB TV. If you haven't seen what he looks like this year (sitting 93-95 late in the game), then you're not really talking about the version of Tillman that matters.

As someone who has NOT been a big Tillman supporter (in the sense of expecting ML contributions from him) I agree with all of this. I just took issue with folks saying he's had a string of good starts, which he really hasn't, unless you count 3 as a "string".

Now to your point, evaluating whether or not a start is good based strictly on a box score is not sufficient, and I do agree with that.

[Lucky Jim]

Tillman at AAA

WHIP: 1.351

K/9: 8.7

BB/9: 3.5

K/BB: 2.5

GB/FB: 1.20

Arrieta in MLB

WHIP: 1.329

K/9: 7.8

BB/9: 3.0

K/BB: 2.65

GB/FB: 1.10

Pretty damn similar peripherals, except one is at the MLB level. Yes, Tillman is trending upward and Arrieta downward, but isn't that even more reason not to make a rash decision?

Let me ask you guys this: what do you see in Tillman that gives you any idea that he would perform better than Arrieta--given he had the same luck as Arrieta (in other words, all things equal)?

Arrieta has better MiL numbers, arguably better stuff, similar pitchability/control, and as I just put forth above, similar peripherals right now as the guy you want to replace him with who just happens to be a level lower (and the biggest level lower there is, ie, no jump is bigger than that from AAA-MLB).

Tillman's FIP at the MLB level last year was 3.99 and his ERA was essentially the same as Arrieta's this year. Just for context.

[wildcard]

Tillman may well be one of the O's 5 best starters right now. I think that is what Buck will be evaluating on Sunday after seeing Hunter, Arrieta, Eveland and Gonzalez pitch. I think Buck picks his best 5.

[Flash- bd]

Enormous ones. It's just one long ex-post rationalization. I don't think Arrieta's been unlucky, myself. But that doesn't mean that he's far off from being successful. His peripherals don't necessarily show that he deserves better results, but they do show that he has nearly everything he needs to be successful at the MLB level. Of course, while he doesn't appear far off...when he falls apart, he looks miles away.

Fair enough. I just think it's worth noting that all it takes is some minor twists of fate and some of these implosions, resulting in him "look[ing] miles away" don't happen. Probably better in the long run that they are, though, because there's the chance that he'll learn something from it.

Otherwise, we're pretty much in accordance: Arrieta isn't far off, therefore shouldn't be sent down, and should be allowed to work through the kinks. Nor does Tillman appear to be far off, but as you note, it can't hurt to see him repeat his performance a few more times.

As for citing his full season statistics (and the flaws involved with doing so), that's also a fair point. But I also think it's worth noting that citing Arrieta's full-season statistics is a bit misleading, as just as Tillman's performance was not likely to continue as it did from about a month ago, nor is Arrieta's performance likely to continue as it has over the past month. By presenting the full-season statistics of both, you average out the fact that Tillman is trending distinctly upwards and Arrieta is trending distinctly downwards, and my impression is a lot of the fervor for the Jake send-down originates from this.

[Frobby]

Tillman may well be one of the O's 5 best starters right now. I think that is what Buck will be evaluating on Sunday after seeing Hunter, Arrieta, Eveland and Gonzalez pitch. I think Buck picks his best 5.

It's mostly about Arrieta this weekend. I don't think he needs to be spectacular to keep his job, but he does need to be decent.

Personally, I'd prefer to keep Eveland and Gonzalez in their current roles.

[DrungoHazewood]

It should be noted that Tillman's FIP is under 3.20 at this point.

It should also be noted that his FIP of 3.20 is in a AAA league with an ERA around 3.50 and he plays half his games in an extreme pitcher's park. That 3.20 is about 3.70 in the O's run context, plus whatever you want to tack on for the AAA-MLB translation.

Yes, I'm aware he's been working on stuff and you could argue his numbers don't reflect his true talent going forward.

I'm sure he helps old ladies across the street, too.

[HokieOs]

20.2 IP 7H 4R 5BB 22K

That's pretty dominant.

Taken as a whole, sure. But it's just three games. If you actually take the last two games, it's phenomenal. But it's just that... two or three games. He had a couple pedestrian (at best) performances before these three and the May 26 outing is a good outing... but certainly not a spectacular outing. He only went particularly deep (7 innings or more) in one of the three.

Obviously Peterson knows more than you or I do. But it would be absolutely foolish to snatch Tillman back up to Baltimore immediately after putting together two very good starts. Now, if he can put another 2 or 3 more together, we can have this discussion. But bringing up Tillman now would be knee-jerk at very best. Absolutely foolish at worst.

[Lucky Jim]

It should also be noted that his FIP of 3.20 is in a AAA league with an ERA around 3.50 and he plays half his games in an extreme pitcher's park. That 3.20 is about 3.70 in the O's run context, plus whatever you want to tack on for the AAA-MLB translation.

Yes, I'm aware he's been working on stuff and you could argue his numbers don't reflect his true talent going forward.

I'm sure he helps old ladies across the street, too.

The point was context specific. If you're going to identify Arrieta's peripherals (a stand-in for FIP) then you shouldn't use Tillman's ERA, either.

[Camden_yardbird]

I want to see Tillman go 7 innings in back to back starts. The issue for him at the major league level wasnt always getting guys out, but getting guys out efficiently.

[Lucky Jim]

Taken as a whole, sure. But it's just three games. If you actually take the last two games, it's phenomenal. But it's just that... two or three games. He had a couple pedestrian (at best) performances before these three and the May 26 outing is a good outing... but certainly not a spectacular outing. He only went particularly deep (7 innings or more) in one of the three.

My point was that lots of things look different if you take an atomistic approach.

Obviously Peterson knows more than you or I do. But it would be absolutely foolish to snatch Tillman back up to Baltimore immediately after putting together two very good starts. Now, if he can put another 2 or 3 more together, we can have this discussion. But bringing up Tillman now would be knee-jerk at very best. Absolutely foolish at worst.

First, if Peterson knows more, how can it be absolutely foolish or even knee-jerk?

Second, we're not talking about a young guy here. We're talking about someone who's been on the fringes of MLB for a couple of years and was once a top-20 prospect in all of MLB.

If they feel he's ready, and that the mechanical tweaks have taken hold, there will be nothing foolish or knee-jerk about the decision. I would say it's far more foolish and knee-jerk to make any kind of broad declarations about a player you haven't watched, or who you have no proprietary information about. No?

None of that is to say (i) that he "absolutely" should be brought up, (ii) that if he is brought up it will be for the right reasons; or (iii) that he will "absolutely" have success if they do bring him up.

But the things that masquerade as knowledge around here are nuts, sometimes.

[Lucky Jim]

I want to see Tillman go 6 innings in back to back starts. The issue for him at the major league level wasnt always getting guys out, but getting guys out efficiently.

He's done that his last three starts?

[Tony-OH]

As many are aware, I've been a big Tillman supporter for years, and I've been patient. I'm not rushing to see him on the MLB roster, though, and perfectly accept the argument that it can't hurt to see him repeat his positive performance for a couple of more starts.

I do, however, think it's useless to cite his statistics for the year as an argument for keeping him down. I can guarantee the Orioles won't be looking at that. Tillman is Exhibit A for Rick Peterson, and the fact is that some early inconsistency w/ results should have been expected. If they like what they see with how he's throwing, those inconsistent results won't matter.

Also, if you want to truly have an opinion on what to do with Tillman, watch him pitch. At a minimum, his 8 inning start is on MiLB TV. If you haven't seen what he looks like this year (sitting 93-95 late in the game), then you're not really talking about the version of Tillman that matters.

Good points. Perhaps something has clicked for Tillman and although I'm convinced he'll ever be a consistent guy mechanically, I'm more than willing to to give him a look if he's made some adjustments that Petersen wanted him to make and now he's having success. I haven't seen that start but I may go back and take a look now that you brought it up.

[HokieOs]

My point was that lots of things look different if you take an atomistic approach.

First, if Peterson knows more, how can it be absolutely foolish or even knee-jerk?

Second, we're not talking about a young guy here. We're talking about someone who's been on the fringes of MLB for a couple of years and was once a top-20 prospect in all of MLB.

If they feel he's ready, and that the mechanical tweaks have taken hold, there will be nothing foolish or knee-jerk about the decision. I would say it's far more foolish and knee-jerk to make any kind of broad declarations about a player you haven't watched, or who you have no proprietary information about. No?

None of that is to say (i) that he "absolutely" should be brought up, (ii) that if he is brought up it will be for the right reasons; or (iii) that he will "absolutely" have success if they do bring him up.

But the things that masquerade as knowledge around here are nuts, sometimes.

OK, it would be absolutely foolish/knee-jerk based on recent stats only to call him up. If other mechanics are up to par, then that's Peterson's call. But fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 6 times over, shame on.... well we're the Orioles. This is what Tillman has been in his time. A few great starts, tease you, make you think he's turning a corner.... get the call up... do well for a game or two and then fall apart. While looking great statistically in those stretches, he also tends to look great mechanically (we hear this everytime he's doing well) and we also hear about how he's finally putting it all together. Then the Scotch tape holding his mechanics together gives way and he falls apart again.

Personally, I want to see a longer stetch of success out of Tillman before we call him up. If the Os call him up, it would be a mistake. He needs to be statistically and mechanically sound time in and time out for more than a couple games. If the call up is based on him being mechanically sound for a much longer period and the stats just now showing it, then it wouldn't be as foolish of a move.

Either way, at least right now, the point is moot because it looks like Hunter got the call.

[Bohs&O's]

What's tillmans fb topping out at?