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Are our prospects better than most people thought?


Gurgi

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How good will our prospects be? Are we very close to having quite a bit of help for the big league club?

Hoes might be close for LF next year. Avery might be ready also and he has flashed solid power this season. Both these guys might turn out to be much better than just a 4th outfielder. I could see the Orioles letting Hoes, Avery and Reimold battle it out for starting LF next year with the loser a 4th outfielder.

Machado might be the answer for third this year and next.

Schoop might be ready next year or the year after for third or second.

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I do think the Orioles are more talented and deeper than most "experts" thought we were. The top of the system has great prospects (Bundy, Machado, Schoop, Hoes, and Avery), but there are other prospects that have shined this year (Kelly, E. Rodriguez, H. Veloz, N. Delmonico). There is talent throughout our system. Next few years should be fun.

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Geez RZ, between this and the 'terrible on paper' thread, why so blue? We're sitting at 65-55 (we won 69 and 66 games the past 2 years), our prospects have shown improvement this year IMHO giving us promise for the future, and we're playing relevant baseball games in late August for the first time since I was in elementary school. Step off the ledge and enjoy some baseball! :thumbsup1:

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I would agree that there have been some encouraging developments in our system this year, but I thought the system had a bit of a bad rap anyway. But there is still quite a drop after Bundy, Machado, Gausman and Schoop. However, solid development seems to be occurring. There seems to be a plan.

Bundy has been dominant for the majority of the season. The organizational development plan has restricted his innings and his use of certain pitches. He is better than I expected.

Machado will probably not be a rookie after this season of course. Big splash at the ML level so far. No news here I guess.

Schoop has been overshadowed by Manny, but now he can cast his own shadow. I think it will be great for his personal development.

You have to like the improvement of Hoes and Avery. Hoes needs to become an excellent defender to justify low power numbers as an OF. Avery is still raw, and his plate discipline comes and goes, but there is a lot to like. You cannot teach his type of speed, and I like his toughness.

You have to like much of what Nick Delmonico has done this year. The power numbers are solid. And Brendon Webb may be the most improved player in the organization. Tyler Kelly has had a fantastic year, seems to get the most out of his tools. Ed Rodriguez will move up the lists. Ben Parry will also move way up lists. Mike Wright has been better than I expected. John Ruettiger has had a solid improvement. Tim Berry has shown signs of coming on as well. Tyler Wilson and Zach Davies will be in the top 30. Connor Narron, Rod Bernadina and Hector Veloz have improved as well.

You now add Gausman, Kline and Marin...maybe Boss, and the draft was very solid.

The biggest disappointments have been Esposito, Bridwell, and I have to say that I expected much more from Glynn Davis. Of course, Rowell, Hobgood, Ohlman and Ward have had disappointing seasons as well for a variety of reasons...some bizarre, some puzzling, some just plain dumb. Coffey just hasn't rediscovered the velocity, maybe he never will. Trent Mummey has battled various injuries.

Dan Klein, Oliver Drake and Ryan Berry have been sidelined with injuries most or all of this season as well.

Overall, I think the system is improving steadily. Organizational philosophies are in place and I truly believe there is a development plan that is consistent throughout the organization. Seems to be less injuries this year. Not much in the way of impact talent/future All Stars or even ML regulars, but there is more depth in those that may have a solid role on a ML team.

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It's not that what you say is wrong, it's just the orange-colored glasses sort of thinking around here. Most of these guys aren't real prospects. Delmonico's value is almost entirely in his bat. He was rated the #5 prospect by many. I would hardly call a .249 AVG, a .411 Slugging PCT, and a .762 OPS encouraging for a low A player who has already turned 20. It's not terrible but this is supposed to be your #5 prospect. That's how weak the system is and putting a positive spin on other fringe prospects (Webb, Kelly) does nothing to ACTUALLY increase the real talent that's in the system, which isn't much.

I agree with your criticisms of the previous poster, but disagree with your conclusion. The O's system has gotten quite a bit stronger this past year, albeit with a lot of churn, in part because we haven't graduated anyone of note. Going into next season, assuming Machado retains his eligibility, we have 3 of the top 50 prospects in baseball and another in the 80-120 range. That alone is better than the systems of maybe 8 or 10 teams. Guys like Hoes and Avery are B-types, and we have a bunch of low-minors guys with significant upside. The system is lacking in older, low-upside but high-likelihood guys at AA and AAA (nobody like '08/'09 Zack Cozart or '08/'09 Ian Desmond). That's not a top-5 system in baseball, sure, but most rankings had us in the 20-25 range going into the season and I bet we're in the 10-15 range next year.

I've had a system for the last few years changing grades to points and ranking farm systems using the Sickels grades; when he finally ranked systems himself this year, I was pretty close. In the top 10 thread of a couple weeks ago, I guessed at Sickels grades for the Orioles' system, and ended up with 2 A, 2 B+, 3 B, 2 B-, and about 9 C+ guys, which is 211 points in my system. That would put us at about #6-#10 in any given year. Even if my grades are optimistic (and I think they are, a bit), I can't imagine the O's system being in the bottom half this year.

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Just to provide a little more basis for comparison, here are the 2012 farm systems that I had ranked 9 through 12.

Remember, I'm guessing that the O's have 2 A (Machado & Bundy), 0 A-, 2 B+ (Gausman & Schoop), 3 B (Avery, Hoes, Delmonico), 2 B- (E Rodriguez, Branden Kline), and 9 C+ prospects going into next season, and that will put them around 10th.

Sickels Grade Shorthand:

A: Top 10 prospect

A-: 10-20 range

B+: 20-75

B: 75-150

B-: 150-300

C+: 300-550

#9 Boston (Sickels Rank 11)

0 A, 0 A-, 2 B+, 4 B, 8 B-, 8 C+

#10 Arizona (Sickels Rank 9)

1 A, 2 A-, 0 B+, 1 B, 7 B-, 10 C+

#11 Colorado (Sickels Rank 13)

1 A, 1 A-, 0 B+, 4 B, 3 B-, 10 C+

#12 Pittsburgh (Sickels Rank 12)

1 A, 1 A-, 1 B+, 2 B, 3 B-, 11 C+

#19 Baltimore (Sickels Rank 19) (from this past year)

1 A, 1 A-, 0 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 11 C+

Baltimore, Projected

2 A, 0 A-, 2 B+, 3 B, 2 B-, 9 C+

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I've said our system is top heavy so we agree there. You say we have a bunch of low-minor guys with significant upside? Like who? I think this is where positive spin verses a realistic take comes in.

Zach Davies, E Rodriguez, Delmonico, and Rod Bernadina are all 19 and at Delmarva - I'd say all four meet that criteria. None is a high-likelihood guy, but just about everyone who is 19 and playing at least reasonably in A ball has good upside (Gabe Lino, for example, was 19 this year at Delmarva).

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Just to provide a little more basis for comparison, here are the 2012 farm systems that I had ranked 9 through 12.

Remember, I'm guessing that the O's have 2 A (Machado & Bundy), 0 A-, 2 B+ (Gausman & Schoop), 3 B (Avery, Hoes, Delmonico), 2 B- (E Rodriguez, Branden Kline), and 9 C+ prospects going into next season, and that will put them around 10th.

Not to nit-pick too much, but I would doubt Hoes, Avery, and Delmonico grade out as B prospects, especially based on your range brackets. And I would think ERod and Kline might rank lower.

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Not to nit-pick too much, but I would doubt Hoes, Avery, and Delmonico grade out as B prospects, especially based on your range brackets. And I would think ERod and Kline might rank lower.

Hoes was C+ before this season, and he definitely helped himself. I think he's B- for sure, and B is possible. I made the guess on Avery before his recent cool stretch; he's probably not a B at the moment. Our 2nd rounder last year (Esposito) got a B- from Sickels before a single professional game; I think Kline will do the same. Delmonico and Rodriguez both get good scouting reports and have decent results as 19 years olds in the Sally League: that's solid. Delmonico was a B- and Rodriguez a C+ at the start of the year; Delmonico certainly didn't go backwards.

Still, it's just guesses. You could drop every one of those grades by half a letter and the overall effect on the system would be to move from a projected #8 to, say, #12 or 13. It's a minor shift, either way. And you're right, I'm just making based on Sickels' past grades.

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I'm guessing that the O's have 2 A (Machado & Bundy), 0 A-, 2 B+ (Gausman & Schoop), 3 B (Avery, Hoes, Delmonico), 2 B- (E Rodriguez, Branden Kline), and 9 C+ prospects going into next season, and that will put them around 10th.

It looks to me like Machado will get enough at bats this year that he won't qualify as a prospect when this season is over. I think you probably have a few other guys rated too high.

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