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[bluedog]

Yes. It's a small sample size and we've clearly overperformed. I'm thrilled about it of course, and hoping we keep overperforming.

I guess I don't understand when a small sample size stops being a small sample size. Chen and Hammel are past that right? The bullpen is past that as well to my thinking. Tillman, Britton, Johnson and Gonzalez represent the small sample size you are referring to I presume?

But setting that aside, I don't think anyone can argue that the reason the O's are where they are right now (without assuming what will happen in the future) is in large part because of how well they've pitched. That's a fact, isn't it?

That's the point I was trying to make in the first post. The O's pitching has been better (outside of the guys who've been replaced) than people think. Do you disagree?

[Rufus]

I guess I don't understand when a small sample size stops being a small sample size. Chen and Hammel are past that right? The bullpen is past that as well to my thinking. Tillman, Britton, Johnson and Gonzalez represent the small sample size you are referring to I presume?

But setting that aside, I don't think anyone can argue that the reason the O's are where they are right now (without assuming what will happen in the future) is in large part because of how well they've pitched. That's a fact, isn't it?

That's the point I was trying to make in the first post. The O's pitching has been better (outside of the guys who've been replaced) than people think. Do you disagree?

There's no magical number for a sample size. The more observations you have, the more confident you can be that what you're seeing is close to a player's true level.

I do agree that the pitching has been better than most people think. If we can keep it up remains to be seen.

[Flash- bd]

Malike and bluedog, I understand where you guys are coming from but I can also understand that people are quite frankly tired of these eureeka! threads purporting to have found the answer to why our pythag underrates us, the national media underrates us, or just why all the "dickwads" on this board under appreciate us.

As I said about 3 pages ago, this exact thread (more-or-less) has already been done (almost a perfect simulacrum, or this thread is a perfect simulacrum of that one?).

Guys, this has already been done: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...ghlight=Pythag

See post #14 and following. (It was initially an OP before it was moved into the conglomerated threat)

[Malike]

I guess I don't understand when a small sample size stops being a small sample size. Chen and Hammel are past that right? The bullpen is past that as well to my thinking. Tillman, Britton, Johnson and Gonzalez represent the small sample size you are referring to I presume?

But setting that aside, I don't think anyone can argue that the reason the O's are where they are right now (without assuming what will happen in the future) is in large part because of how well they've pitched. That's a fact, isn't it?

That's the point I was trying to make in the first post. The O's pitching has been better (outside of the guys who've been replaced) than people think. Do you disagree?

Hunter - 121 IP

Arrieta - 101 IP

Matusz - 85 IP

Gonzalez - 66 IP

Tillman - 51 IP

Britton - 37 IP

The sample is pretty small on these guys, and even smaller on Johnson, obviously.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I also think that some of what we think of as pitching is actually defense. And that has definitely improved recently also, with the.additions of Machado and McLouth and Reynolds moving to 1B.

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[bluedog]

Yes, I do think they will start another game. We have a very limited sample size on Miguel Gonzalez. Steve Johnson only has two starts. Things can and will change in the next few weeks. And slightly off topic, but if you look at his peripherals, Arrieta is definitely one of the best 5 starters we have. He's just been very unlucky in terms of BABIP and LOB% (kind of the opposite of his first big league stint).

I can't imagine a scenario where Hunter, Arrieta or Matusz starts again this season.

And Arrieta might be one of the best five starters based on stuff, but based on his ability to pitch (not throw) I'd take Johnson over him right now.

[Rufus]

Hunter - 121 IP

Arrieta - 101 IP

Matusz - 85 IP

Gonzalez - 66 IP

Tillman - 51 IP

Britton - 37 IP

The sample is pretty small on these guys, and even smaller on Johnson, obviously.

The samples are larger for Hunter/Matusz/Arrieta. Hmmmm

[bluedog]

I also think that some of what we think of as pitching is actually defense. And that has definitely improved recently also, with the.additions of Machado and McLouth and Reynolds moving to 1B.

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Great point. I forgot to even mention this. Someone in another thread made the same point about our defense being far better now than our overall stats suggest as I was trying to make about our pitching.

Bottom line is the O's seem to be a far better team now than earlier in the season due in large part to personnel moves that have worked out very well.

[Malike]

Malike and bluedog, I understand where you guys are coming from but I can also understand that people are quite frankly tired of these eureeka! threads purporting to have found the answer to why our pythag underrates us, the national media underrates us, or just why all the "dickwads" on this board under appreciate us.

As I said about 3 pages ago, this exact thread (more-or-less) has already been done (almost a perfect simulacrum, or this thread is a perfect simulacrum of that one?).

I've read that, and its excellent, no doubt. Clearly, there were issues with the OP in this thread, and my whole contention here is, just because you are anonymous on a message board, doesn't give you the right to belittle someone, and insult them. This is a pretty tight community, and like any community, you should respect the people around you, even if they have a derp moment.

[bluedog]

Hunter - 121 IP

Arrieta - 101 IP

Matusz - 85 IP

Gonzalez - 66 IP

Tillman - 51 IP

Britton - 37 IP

The sample is pretty small on these guys, and even smaller on Johnson, obviously.

Agreed. There is no guarantee these guys will continue to pitch as well as they have recently. But that doesn't take away the fact that they have pitched very well and I believe that has played a much larger part in the O's winning than luck in 1 run games, at least recently.

[Rufus]

I can't imagine a scenario where Hunter, Arrieta or Matusz starts again this season.

And Arrieta might be one of the best five starters based on stuff, but based on his ability to pitch (not throw) I'd take Johnson over him right now.

Arrieta: 3.84 xFIP, 4.04 FIP in 101 IP

Johnson: 3.00 xFIP, 3.74 FIP in 17 IP

I'll take Arrieta

[Nigel Tufnel]

It's no mystery why the O's have outperformed their Pythag - they've won all of their close games. The real question is what's their true talent level going forward, in which case I think it makes sense to look at the current team.

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[bluedog]

I've read that, and its excellent, no doubt. Clearly, there were issues with the OP in this thread, and my whole contention here is, just because you are anonymous on a message board, doesn't give you the right to belittle someone, and insult them. This is a pretty tight community, and like any community, you should respect the people around you, even if they have a derp moment.

This.

People shouldn't be afraid to post something in a moment of happy exuberance because their team is winning. There are a lot of lurkers out there who are absolutely terrified of posting on OH because they are afraid they'll be attacked for sharing their opinion. That's BS. No one deserves to treated like that, regardless of their opinion.

[Malike]

The samples are larger for Hunter/Matusz/Arrieta. Hmmmm

I find it interesting that the sample is almost exactly twice the size!

[Dodobirds]

Please don't read this, national press.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!!