Is A Deal For Billy Butler Still Possible?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

So, about 1.5 WAR/year? I estimated 1.9 in my calcs above... Sounds like we're in agreement here on Butler's value...

Snarky adjectives aside, the entire point of a platoon is to get more production at a single lineup spot than either player would provide on their own. Looking at career WAR numbers is not the way to evaluate a possible platoon.

Using my estimated PA numbers, and their respective career splits vs LHP/RHP (SSS warning for Valencia), here's what a possible Betemit/Valencia produce offensively (OBP/SLG):

Betemit 350 PA vs RHP: .349/.474

Betemit 50 PA vs LHP: .285/.352

Valencia 125 PA vs LHP: .359/.472

Valencia 25 PA vs RHP: .271/.355

Overall, that's 550 PAs to the tune of a .342/.458, or an .800 OPS. Betemit and Valencia are about -2 BSR/600, instead of -5.4. Using that WAR estimator, and a -2.8 BSR figure (limited options), that platoon would be worth 1.6 WAR. Even if Butler hits like he did in 2012, his best offensive season so far, he'd be worth about 2.8 WAR. It's about a one-win upgrade, and it comes at a large cost.

And it comes with the flexibility to use Betemit and Valencia as replacement corner infielders in long games, or as pinch hitters vs closers of the appropriate handedness. You can keep repeating that "player X is a bad player" but that misses the entire point - yes, Betemit is not as good a hitter as Butler, but much of that gap can be closed via platoon.

I think I just did.

This is a really telling point. First, Ortiz was definitely a bad base runner, but actually significantly better than Butler (-4.2 vs -5.4) - Ortiz was more in the Matt Wieters class as a baserunner. Second, Ortiz was a decent but not spectacular hitter through age 26 (.808 OPS), and he had an otherworldly breakout that started when he went to Boston at age 27 - five seasons with an average OPS of 1.014. Now, it's possible Butler is about to break out in a similar way, but that's a belief or feeling, not something that can really be proven (of course, I'd be interested to see an attempt to predict breakouts...). And if you believe that Butler is about to put up a 1.000 OPS for five straight years, then sure, he's worth a ton, and we should be seeing if the Royals are interested in Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy.

But it's a pretty far longshot to expect that kind of production from Butler. Another very similar hitter to Butler through age 26 is Nick Markakis. I think we'd all be pretty disappointed with Nick's offensive production over the last two seasons if he wasn't playing good defense in right field and his baserunning went from just-above-average to worst-in-the-league.

I'm willing to accept that you think Butler is going to be much more valuable than he has been thus far in his career, and is therefore worth more in trade. I don't agree, but I don't see much point in discussing it - it's not something that can be proven or disproven.

Great post.

Also worth pointing out-

-If you have Butler as a full-time DH, you lose the flexibility to use the DH spot to give other players a rest occasionally.

-You have to bench your best hitter or deal with his God-awful defense in interleague games(and World Series away games ).

-He's unlikely to reach Ortiz-level production without using the same..."training techniques."

[Roll Tide]

Well that basically settles that... but there is something to be said for using 2 roster spots for 1 slash line.

And Platoons don't generally work out as planned.

@ Skanar Butler is just entering his prime. His best War years are very likely the next 4-6. So regardless he's been worth more per peak than the collection of scraps you mention. I just don't see how you can advocate using the sling enough crap against the wall approach.

You've explained your hypothesis on how you'd hope to create a star hitters production by using a collection of fringe MLB-AAAA players. PS it won't work ...it rarely does... Give me a example of 3 platoon scenarios that produced equivalent production last year.

I agree that Butler may never be Ortiz like. ...but I'm sure you'll admit that baseball players usually peak in their late 20s to early 30s. based on his track record there is no reason to believe that Butler won't have a spike. Arguing speed for RBI players is just silly. I watched Butler play against us and hit doubles ...he had no trouble running the bases and didn't look slow. I'll trust my eyes and won't believe he's any slower than fat guys like Ortiz & Prince Fielder. He will be worth every penny of what he's paid over the next 4-5 seasons and certainly worth a package that doesn't include Bundy.

I agree that it likely won't happen as has been mentioned here. But not because Buck and DD believe in the fantasy platoon theory is better. Even if they dont get Butler I'd be very surprised if they don't add another full time player to put at DH or 1B.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

And Platoons don't generally work out as planned.

@ Skanar Butler is just entering his prime. His best War years are very likely the next 4-6. So regardless he's been worth more per peak than the collection of scraps you mention. I just don't see how you can advocate using the sling enough crap against the wall approach.

You've explained your hypothesis on how you'd hope to create a star hitters production by using a collection of fringe MLB-AAAA players. PS it won't work ...it rarely does... Give me a example of 3 platoon scenarios that produced equivalent production last year.

I agree that Butler may never be Ortiz like. ...but I'm sure you'll admit that baseball players usually peak in their late 20s to early 30s. based on his track record there is no reason to believe that Butler won't have a spike. Arguing speed for RBI players is just silly. I watched Butler play against us and hit doubles ...he had no trouble running the bases and didn't look slow. I'll trust my eyes and won't believe he's any slower than fat guys like Ortiz & Prince Fielder. He will be worth every penny of what he's paid over the next 4-5 seasons and certainly worth a package that doesn't include Bundy.

I agree that it likely won't happen as has been mentioned here. But not because Buck and DD believe in the fantasy platoon theory is better. Even if they dont get Butler I'd be very surprised if they don't add another full time player to put at DH or 1B.

The 2012 A's used platoons at multiple positions to overtake the big-spending Angels and Rangers to win the AL West. The platoons were used all over the place, including C, 1B, DH, and OF, and included mega-stars like Chris Carter and George Kottaras.

[CaptainRedbeard]

And Platoons don't generally work out as planned.

@ Skanar Butler is just entering his prime. His best War years are very likely the next 4-6. So regardless he's been worth more per peak than the collection of scraps you mention. I just don't see how you can advocate using the sling enough crap against the wall approach.

You've explained your hypothesis on how you'd hope to create a star hitters production by using a collection of fringe MLB-AAAA players. PS it won't work ...it rarely does... Give me a example of 3 platoon scenarios that produced equivalent production last year.

I agree that Butler may never be Ortiz like. ...but I'm sure you'll admit that baseball players usually peak in their late 20s to early 30s. based on his track record there is no reason to believe that Butler won't have a spike. Arguing speed for RBI players is just silly. I watched Butler play against us and hit doubles ...he had no trouble running the bases and didn't look slow. I'll trust my eyes and won't believe he's any slower than fat guys like Ortiz & Prince Fielder. He will be worth every penny of what he's paid over the next 4-5 seasons and certainly worth a package that doesn't include Bundy.

I agree that it likely won't happen as has been mentioned here. But not because Buck and DD believe in the fantasy platoon theory is better. Even if they dont get Butler I'd be very surprised if they don't add another full time player to put at DH or 1B.

1. Brandon Moss / Chris Carter (160/137 wRC+)

2. Seth Smith / Johnny Gomes (107/142)

3. George Kottaras / Derek Norris (105/73, as catchers)

There's 3 from one team. The team that beat the Rangers. Ever wonder how the A's had a team wRC+ of 97 last year with only 4 players who had 500 PA, and one who had over 600? How they made the playoffs with no big-name superstar "MOOs"? Closest they had was Cespedes, and he was only marginally better than Jones.

Also look at how the Yankees used Ibanez, the Rays use Joyce, or the Rangers use David Murphy and Craig Gentry. There are tons of examples of successful platoons employed by playoff teams, particularly in the AL with the DH.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The 2012 A's used platoons at multiple positions to overtake the big-spending Angels and Rangers to win the AL West. The platoons were used all over the place, including C, 1B, DH, and OF, and included mega-stars like Chris Carter and George Kottaras.

Nice, you didn't even need me to jump in. They A's were effectively employing 4 platoons at the end of the season, with Moss, Smith, Kottaras and Pennington on the LH side and Carter, Gomes, Norris, and Weeks on the RH side.

[Crazysilver03]

So, about 1.5 WAR/year? I estimated 1.9 in my calcs above... Sounds like we're in agreement here on Butler's value...

Snarky adjectives aside, the entire point of a platoon is to get more production at a single lineup spot than either player would provide on their own. Looking at career WAR numbers is not the way to evaluate a possible platoon.

Using my estimated PA numbers, and their respective career splits vs LHP/RHP (SSS warning for Valencia), here's what a possible Betemit/Valencia produce offensively (OBP/SLG):

Betemit 350 PA vs RHP: .349/.474

Betemit 50 PA vs LHP: .285/.352

Valencia 125 PA vs LHP: .359/.472

Valencia 25 PA vs RHP: .271/.355

Overall, that's 550 PAs to the tune of a .342/.458, or an .800 OPS. Betemit and Valencia are about -2 BSR/600, instead of -5.4. Using that WAR estimator, and a -2.8 BSR figure (limited options), that platoon would be worth 1.6 WAR. Even if Butler hits like he did in 2012, his best offensive season so far, he'd be worth about 2.8 WAR. It's about a one-win upgrade, and it comes at a large cost.

And it comes with the flexibility to use Betemit and Valencia as replacement corner infielders in long games, or as pinch hitters vs closers of the appropriate handedness. You can keep repeating that "player X is a bad player" but that misses the entire point - yes, Betemit is not as good a hitter as Butler, but much of that gap can be closed via platoon.

I think I just did.

This is a really telling point. First, Ortiz was definitely a bad base runner, but actually significantly better than Butler (-4.2 vs -5.4) - Ortiz was more in the Matt Wieters class as a baserunner. Second, Ortiz was a decent but not spectacular hitter through age 26 (.808 OPS), and he had an otherworldly breakout that started when he went to Boston at age 27 - five seasons with an average OPS of 1.014. Now, it's possible Butler is about to break out in a similar way, but that's a belief or feeling, not something that can really be proven (of course, I'd be interested to see an attempt to predict breakouts...). And if you believe that Butler is about to put up a 1.000 OPS for five straight years, then sure, he's worth a ton, and we should be seeing if the Royals are interested in Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy.

But it's a pretty far longshot to expect that kind of production from Butler. Another very similar hitter to Butler through age 26 is Nick Markakis. I think we'd all be pretty disappointed with Nick's offensive production over the last two seasons if he wasn't playing good defense in right field and his baserunning went from just-above-average to worst-in-the-league.

I'm willing to accept that you think Butler is going to be much more valuable than he has been thus far in his career, and is therefore worth more in trade. I don't agree, but I don't see much point in discussing it - it's not something that can be proven or disproven.

This is one of the best posts ever made on the OH.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Nice, you didn't even need me to jump in. They A's were effectively employing 4 platoons at the end of the season, with Moss, Smith, Kottaras and Pennington on the LH side and Carter, Gomes, Norris, and Weeks on the RH side.

"Brilliant minds...etc."

To be fair, you did bring more stats and details than I did. I'm using my phone to post and was just going off the top of my head.

It is also worth noting that Melvin's brilliant use of platoons to conjure a playoff team out of thin air is probably the main reason why he was a more deserving Manager of the Year than Buck, though not by much.

[Stotle]

Thanks Stotle. If you are the GM of a team would you prefer Matusz or Arrieta in a trade and which one do you think is more coachable based on your contacts? We've heard both have had issues with coaches however Matusz seemed to rally in his new role out of the pen.

Setting aside coachability, which I don't feel comfortable commenting on, Matusz is the more valuable asset. That's who I'd want if I were targeting a MLB-ready Orioles arm.

[skanar]

Here's the statistics from the Jonny Gomes/Seth Smith platoon:

Seth Smith, 361 PA vs RHP: .259/.352/.454

Seth Smith, 80 PA vs LHP: .157/.250/.271

Jonny Gomes, 137 PA vs RHP: .209/.324/.391

Jonny Gomes, 196 PA vs LHP: .299/.413/.561

Overall line: 774 PA, .250/.357/.451 (.808 OPS).

[Roll Tide]

This is one of the best posts ever made on the OH.

Yep:rolleyes: .... Until the platoon is a abysmal failure or the Orioles are struck again by limited maneuvering due to carrying three or four poor fielding DH/Types.

The A's are okay as one example...but moneyball only works occasionally.

[Crazysilver03]

Yep:rolleyes: .... Until the platoon is a abysmal failure or the Orioles are struck again by limited maneuvering due to carrying three or four poor fielding DH/Types.

The A's are okay as one example...but moneyball only works occasionally.

And you take offense to that statement, why? You have never presented a post that well organized and informative. It is nothing against you, but the post was clear and concise.

And your responses have been full of opinion with no substantiate information.

You are right that platoons don't always work out the way they are designed, but they usually fall apart for injury reasons.

[Stotle]

I don't know how a feel about a world that values a Valencia/Betemit platoon over an $8MM Billy Butler on a roster...

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Yep:rolleyes: .... Until the platoon is a abysmal failure or the Orioles are struck again by limited maneuvering due to carrying three or four poor fielding DH/Types.

The A's are okay as one example...but moneyball only works occasionally.

If this discussion was a scored debate, the judge would have just docked you a point. The facts are pretty cut-and-dry: platoons work a lot of the time. We're only going to be using 1 or 2 platoons(LF is a possibility depending on how McLouth fares against lefties during the spring) and the main piece of the DH platoon(Betemit) is EXCELLENT in his role- .865 OPS vs. RHPs since 2010. That's better, BTW, than Butler was vs. RHPs last year(,827 OPS).

[Stotle]

So, about 1.5 WAR/year? I estimated 1.9 in my calcs above... Sounds like we're in agreement here on Butler's value...

I believe that's light on Butler's projected value over the next three seasons, from what I have read/heard.

And it comes with the flexibility to use Betemit and Valencia as replacement corner infielders in long games, or as pinch hitters vs closers of the appropriate handedness. You can keep repeating that "player X is a bad player" but that misses the entire point - yes, Betemit is not as good a hitter as Butler, but much of that gap can be closed via platoon.

The platoon comes with greater risk, though, including 1) lack of utility if either piece is injured (or simply has a down year), 2) more performance volatility due to weaker performance profile (essentially, good players are more likely to perform well), and 3) limited upside (Butler's tools afford him more room to significantly exceed past performance, whereas Betemit/Valencia have a harder ceiling on capable performance outcomes).

This is a really telling point. First, Ortiz was definitely a bad base runner, but actually significantly better than Butler (-4.2 vs -5.4) - Ortiz was more in the Matt Wieters class as a baserunner. Second, Ortiz was a decent but not spectacular hitter through age 26 (.808 OPS), and he had an otherworldly breakout that started when he went to Boston at age 27 - five seasons with an average OPS of 1.014. Now, it's possible Butler is about to break out in a similar way, but that's a belief or feeling, not something that can really be proven (of course, I'd be interested to see an attempt to predict breakouts...). And if you believe that Butler is about to put up a 1.000 OPS for five straight years, then sure, he's worth a ton, and we should be seeing if the Royals are interested in Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy.

Agreed, you absolutely cannot project that kind of breakout. But that kind of breakout remains a possible outcome in the case of Butler (albeit a small chance), while being essentially impossible for a Betemit/Valencia platoon.

Another very similar hitter to Butler through age 26 is Nick Markakis. I think we'd all be pretty disappointed with Nick's offensive production over the last two seasons if he wasn't playing good defense in right field and his baserunning went from just-above-average to worst-in-the-league.

Maybe, but Markakis is being paid significantly more than Butler. Even Butler's team option tops at $12.5MM. The odds of surplus value in Butler's remaining contract outlay is extremely high. I'd say Butler is significantly more likely to be out produce his paycheck than is Markakis or, say, Jones.

I'm willing to accept that you think Butler is going to be much more valuable than he has been thus far in his career, and is therefore worth more in trade. I don't agree, but I don't see much point in discussing it - it's not something that can be proven or disproven.

Definitely worth discussing -- we just need to cover the four corners appropriately. Nice post -- lots of good points, skanar.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I don't know how a feel about a world that values a Valencia/Betemit platoon over an $8MM Billy Butler on a roster...

Don't get me wrong- I would much prefer Butler over the Hypothetical Betemit-Valencia/Pearce/Jackson/Reimold/whoever platoon...if he was a free agent. But considering what he would cost in trade(and the fact that he's not even available in trade), I can live with the platoon.