Is A Deal For Billy Butler Still Possible?

[skanar]

The platoon comes with greater risk, though, including 1) lack of utility if either piece is injured (or simply has a down year), 2) more performance volatility due to weaker performance profile (essentially, good players are more likely to perform well), and 3) limited upside (Butler's tools afford him more room to significantly exceed past performance, whereas Betemit/Valencia have a harder ceiling on capable performance outcomes).

(1) This is not an unreasonable point, especially regarding down years, but I don't think injury concerns are greater for platoons. Butler, or any player, can get injured, as can a member of a platoon. In fact, the risk might even be less for platoons: If Valencia gets injured, you call up Steve Pearce. If Butler gets injured, what's his replacement?

(2) and (3). I agree; the chance of Butler having an Ortiz-like breakout is greater than the chance of a platoon performing at that same high level.

As I've posted elsewhere, I think adding Butler as a full-time DH would make the Orioles a better team than a Betemit-based platoon would. I just don't think the improvement is that large, and I don't think it's large enough to be worth the difference in cost and traded talent (Tillman or whatever).

[Stotle]

(1) This is not an unreasonable point, especially regarding down years, but I don't think injury concerns are greater for platoons. Butler, or any player, can get injured, as can a member of a platoon. In fact, the risk might even be less for platoons: If Valencia gets injured, you call up Steve Pearce. If Butler gets injured, what's his replacement?

(2) and (3). I agree; the chance of Butler having an Ortiz-like breakout is greater than the chance of a platoon performing at that same high level.

As I've posted elsewhere, I think adding Butler as a full-time DH would make the Orioles a better team than a Betemit-based platoon would. I just don't think the improvement is that large, and I don't think it's large enough to be worth the difference in cost and traded talent (Tillman or whatever).

You make good points on that front. Still, I think parsing platoons can be problematic (as you point out), particularly due to sample size issues. An upgrade to Butler probably doesn't make sense if you believe the Orioles are an 80-win team. If you think they are a playoff contender, the potential for, say, two added wins is a pretty big deal. Not to mention Butler's contract is team friendly for its duration. Of course, the thin nature of the system makes a larger package difficult to put together for a player of Butler's value.

Note, "Butler" is a construct in this discussion. He's obviously unlikely to be on the table at this point. But the idea is still worth discussing, as it's a matter of determining appropriate use of assets in building as complete a team as possible. My hope is that the work the FO is doing in constructing potential platoons is fairly advanced. That approach shouldn't be required of a team capable of a $90-100MM payroll. If it is, there are contracts that 1) should not have been handed out, or 2) should have been moved. Obviously, the org needs to build a farm system in a bad way...

EDIT -- Regarding injury risk, Butler isn't playing the field (you stated Betemit and Valencia would be). Further, you have a freed up roster spot if Butler is full timing, so your "alternate option" if Butler is injured isn't limited to a piece of a platoon. In any event, I think the platoon is a fine approach in general terms, but isn't really a strong play for a number of reasons. If you are not forced to piece together production due to cash constraints, you are almost always going to be better off with the better player, rather than trying the Franken-slash approach.

[Tryptamine]

So, about 1.5 WAR/year? I estimated 1.9 in my calcs above... Sounds like we're in agreement here on Butler's value...

Snarky adjectives aside, the entire point of a platoon is to get more production at a single lineup spot than either player would provide on their own. Looking at career WAR numbers is not the way to evaluate a possible platoon.

Using my estimated PA numbers, and their respective career splits vs LHP/RHP (SSS warning for Valencia), here's what a possible Betemit/Valencia produce offensively (OBP/SLG):

Betemit 350 PA vs RHP: .349/.474

Betemit 50 PA vs LHP: .285/.352

Valencia 125 PA vs LHP: .359/.472

Valencia 25 PA vs RHP: .271/.355

Overall, that's 550 PAs to the tune of a .342/.458, or an .800 OPS. Betemit and Valencia are about -2 BSR/600, instead of -5.4. Using that WAR estimator, and a -2.8 BSR figure (limited options), that platoon would be worth 1.6 WAR. Even if Butler hits like he did in 2012, his best offensive season so far, he'd be worth about 2.8 WAR. It's about a one-win upgrade, and it comes at a large cost.

And it comes with the flexibility to use Betemit and Valencia as replacement corner infielders in long games, or as pinch hitters vs closers of the appropriate handedness. You can keep repeating that "player X is a bad player" but that misses the entire point - yes, Betemit is not as good a hitter as Butler, but much of that gap can be closed via platoon.

I think I just did.

This is a really telling point. First, Ortiz was definitely a bad base runner, but actually significantly better than Butler (-4.2 vs -5.4) - Ortiz was more in the Matt Wieters class as a baserunner. Second, Ortiz was a decent but not spectacular hitter through age 26 (.808 OPS), and he had an otherworldly breakout that started when he went to Boston at age 27 - five seasons with an average OPS of 1.014. Now, it's possible Butler is about to break out in a similar way, but that's a belief or feeling, not something that can really be proven (of course, I'd be interested to see an attempt to predict breakouts...). And if you believe that Butler is about to put up a 1.000 OPS for five straight years, then sure, he's worth a ton, and we should be seeing if the Royals are interested in Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy.

But it's a pretty far longshot to expect that kind of production from Butler. Another very similar hitter to Butler through age 26 is Nick Markakis. I think we'd all be pretty disappointed with Nick's offensive production over the last two seasons if he wasn't playing good defense in right field and his baserunning went from just-above-average to worst-in-the-league.

I'm willing to accept that you think Butler is going to be much more valuable than he has been thus far in his career, and is therefore worth more in trade. I don't agree, but I don't see much point in discussing it - it's not something that can be proven or disproven.

Would you stop with using career numbers already. It completely inaccurately skews any statistic you lay out. If you're going to do that then Adam Jones is only a 2.3WAR a season player. Using numbers from what a guy did 5 years ago to describe the player he is today doesn't make any sense at all. Calling a guy who has put up 2.2, 2.9, 1.8 and 3.2 fWAR over the last 4 years a 1.9WAR player doesn't make any sense at all.

[Tryptamine]

I also should add that if Butler is going to be used solely as a DH his value actually goes up because he doesn't have his defense negatively effecting his value. That would result in a higher yearly fWAR.

[Stotle]

I also should add that if Butler is going to be used solely as a DH his value actually goes up because he doesn't have his defense negatively effecting his value. That would result in a higher yearly fWAR.

That isn't a certainty (though it might be true in this case). Depends on if the positional value adjustment is greater than the negative value of the poor defense.

[Guest AZOsMagic]

I got "Moneyballed" on here a couple months ago by Bill James' grandson (just kidding, but I don't remember the poster's name) with all kinds of numbers about how giving up Tillman for Butler doesn't make sense. I confess I don't even understand some of the acronyms he threw out (liberal arts major, C math student, lol). HOWEVER, I do understand a little bit about baseball and I wanted to chime in on the exchanges going on between SKANAR/DrinkinWithTermi/JohnnyK27/TRYPTAMINE . While I certainly respect SKANAR's mathematical knowledge, I agree A LOT with with Johnnyk27 and TRYPTAMINE's points.

The interesting thing about all of these statistics is that they they reflect the past and don't factor in many important variables. I laughed about the thought of Valencia/Betemit compared to Butler. Ask Buck if that's a huge upgrade (Buck LOVES Billy BTW). I can guarantee Buck would drive Tillman to Kansas City on the Dumb and Dumber scooter from Baltimore if could trade a few arms (no Bundy of course) and get Butler in return. Take your WAR/BSR,OPS to the math club after school, LOL. Here are several important variables that could skew any of these stats:

- All of Butler's stats are based off of a career where he has had virtually ZERO protection in the KC lineup

- He plays 81 games in a horrendous park. OPACY and CLE are his two favorite stadiums to hit in

- You can't factor in the impact Butler would have on his teammates. We have too many "free swingers" in the heart of our order. He would offer some "protection" for hitters around him. More fastballs.

- Adam Jones knows he is a bit of "showboat" out there & that's okay. Swagger is his game. However, Billy watches TONS of video and knows a lot about hitting. He would bag on Adam for all this sliders he chases that are closer the pretzel guy than home plate. Adam and Chris Davis could both learn a bit more plate discipline from him

- Butler could very well be improving

- If Hardy and Wieters hit a bit more, how big of a loss is Tillman?

The funny part in all of this is that I know from a very credible source that Butler's name wasn't even brought up this winter. The media just comes up with ideas they think makes sense and runs with them. KC management needs to win now to save their jobs. I do think Butler could get traded late summer of 2013 if KC is losing terribly and needs to blow up it's core. Guthrie, Santana, and their other starters will determine that. I just felt the need to post because I think that many of these statistics just don't accurately reflect value. Oh.. and Johnny27... avatar rocks... Larry Sheets... autographed no less!

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I got "Moneyballed" on here a couple months ago by Bill James' grandson (just kidding, but I don't remember the poster's name) with all kinds of numbers about how giving up Tillman for Butler doesn't make sense. I confess I don't even understand some of the acronyms he threw out (liberal arts major, C math student, lol). HOWEVER, I do understand a little bit about baseball and I wanted to chime in on the exchanges going on between SKANAR/DrinkinWithTermi/JohnnyK27/TRYPTAMINE . While I certainly respect SKANAR's mathematical knowledge, I agree A LOT with with Johnnyk27 and TRYPTAMINE's points.

The interesting thing about all of these statistics is that they they reflect the past and don't factor in many important variables. I laughed about the thought of Valencia/Betemit compared to Butler. Ask Buck if that's a huge upgrade (Buck LOVES Billy BTW). I can guarantee Buck would drive Tillman to Kansas City on the Dumb and Dumber scooter from Baltimore if could trade a few arms (no Bundy of course) and get Butler in return. Take your WAR/BSR,OPS to the math club after school, LOL. Here are several important variables that could skew any of these stats:

- All of Butler's stats are based off of a career where he has had virtually ZERO protection in the KC lineup

- He plays 81 games in a horrendous park. OPACY and CLE are his two favorite stadiums to hit in

- You can't factor in the impact Butler would have on his teammates. We have too many "free swingers" in the heart of our order. He would offer some "protection" for hitters around him. More fastballs.

- Adam Jones knows he is a bit of "showboat" out there & that's okay. Swagger is his game. However, Billy watches TONS of video and knows a lot about hitting. He would bag on Adam for all this sliders he chases that are closer the pretzel guy than home plate. Adam and Chris Davis could both learn a bit more plate discipline from him

- Butler could very well be improving

- If Hardy and Wieters hit a bit more, how big of a loss is Tillman?

The funny part in all of this is that I know from a very credible source that Butler's name wasn't even brought up this winter. The media just comes up with ideas they think makes sense and runs with them. KC management needs to win now to save their jobs. I do think Butler could get traded late summer of 2013 if KC is losing terribly and needs to blow up it's core. Guthrie, Santana, and their other starters will determine that. I just felt the need to post because I think that many of these statistics just don't accurately reflect value. Oh.. and Johnny27... avatar rocks... Larry Sheets... autographed no less!

And what do you do with your best hitter for game 7 of the WS if it's at Busch Stadium? Bench him? Or risk him giving the game away on defense? There's also a number of interleague road games before that...

No one is arguing that a Betemit/whoever platoon is better overall than Butler, but he does have some very real negatives that mitigate his value considerably(defense, speed, positional flexibility, cost in trade, etc.). The hypothetical platoon should be a pretty solid upgrade over Reynolds, whose ABs they're essentially replacing, and that's all that really matters. We weren't a bottom 5 offense last year- we were 2nd in HRs and middle of the pack in total runs scored, and as we sit right now, I would expect that we'll be a top 10-15 offense in 2013. That should be plenty good enough if the pitching holds up its end of the deal.

[Crazysilver03]

And what do you do with your best hitter for game 7 of the WS if it's at Busch Stadium? Bench him? Or risk him giving the game away on defense? There's also a number of interleague road games before that...

Is this a real argument or sarcasm?

We all know that game 7 would be in OPACY as Wieters and Butler would hit back to back HR to win the All-Star game for the AL.

[Tryptamine]

And what do you do with your best hitter for game 7 of the WS if it's at Busch Stadium? Bench him? Or risk him giving the game away on defense? There's also a number of interleague road games before that...

No one is arguing that a Betemit/whoever platoon is better overall than Butler, but he does have some very real negatives that mitigate his value considerably(defense, speed, positional flexibility, cost in trade, etc.). The hypothetical platoon should be a pretty solid upgrade over Reynolds, whose ABs they're essentially replacing, and that's all that really matters. We weren't a bottom 5 offense last year- we were 2nd in HRs and middle of the pack in total runs scored, and as we sit right now, I would expect that we'll be a top 10-15 offense in 2013. That should be plenty good enough if the pitching holds up its end of the deal.

You play him at 1B. He's not such an incredible disaster that he can't man 1B periodically.

[Guest AZOsMagic]

Worrying about a lineup for Game 7 at ST LOUIS is a high class problem... I love high class problems. Lets plug him in at 1B for Game 7. You reminded me about the other really annoying thing I forgot to mention. Billy is a pretty good athlete with an extremely small sample size on defense. He can play some games at first and not hurt you. He successfully played in interleague games at 1B this year. A baseball guy (I mean a guy who has actually played pro ball, not a writer) would agree. It's simply that Hosmer has ridiculous potential at first defensively. I can't speak to your salary concerns.. maybe you have a great point. I'm just like other O's fans who want a bat. I respectfully disagree that this super-castoff-platoon you numbers guys mention is even in the same ballpark as a great hitter like Billy. Reynolds at times makes Bob Uecker look like Ty Cobb, not like it's that hard to upgrade Reynolds first half of the season. Who knows, maybe we could become a top 5 offense... assuming a few other things go right. Sure would be cool to lead the league in HRS and runs scored.

[Guest AZOsMagic]

Word TRYPTAMINE...

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Is this a real argument or sarcasm?

We all know that game 7 would be in OPACY as Wieters and Butler would hit back to back HR to win the All-Star game for the AL.

It was definitely tongue-in-cheek. But still, something to think about.

You play him at 1B. He's not such an incredible disaster that he can't man 1B periodically.

He's pretty awful actually. He has about the range of Cecil Fielder.

Cecil Fielder now, that is.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Worrying about a lineup for Game 7 at ST LOUIS is a high class problem... I love high class problems. Lets plug him in at 1B for Game 7. You reminded me about the other really annoying thing I forgot to mention. Billy is a pretty good athlete with an extremely small sample size on defense. He can play some games at first and not hurt you. He successfully played in interleague games at 1B this year. A baseball guy (I mean a guy who has actually played pro ball, not a writer) would agree. It's simply that Hosmer has ridiculous potential at first defensively. I can't speak to your salary concerns.. maybe you have a great point. I'm just like other O's fans who want a bat. I respectfully disagree that this super-castoff-platoon you numbers guys mention is even in the same ballpark as a great hitter like Billy. Reynolds at times makes Bob Uecker look like Ty Cobb, not like it's that hard to upgrade Reynolds first half of the season. Who knows, maybe we could become a top 5 offense... assuming a few other things go right. Sure would be cool to lead the league in HRS and runs scored.

Again, it doesn't have to be as good as Butler to be a reasonable improvement over Reynolds. That's all that it needs to be for the offense to be better than it was last year. And we wouldn't have given up Tillman+ or Bundy to gain that improvement.

[Guest AZOsMagic]

It was definitely tongue-in-cheek. But still, something to think about.

He's pretty awful actually. He has about the range of Cecil Fielder.

Cecil Fielder now, that is.

This is according to who? That's a pretty ridiculous comment

[DrinkinWithFermi]

[/b]

This is according to who? That's a pretty ridiculous comment

It was hyperbole, although his range is really terrible.