Doubles Machine 2.0

[scOtt]

And like Thorne mentioned in-game, got a nice cherry on his whole ribcage doing it!

[Riggodrill44]

I'm confused on a recent play I thought was a double by Machado. Runner on 2b,Manny hits soft liner into gap. The CF is playing more right center, Manny runs hard doesn't stop at first .The throw comes in to the cut-off man at the mound. He attempts to get Manny at 2b.Really had no play because Manny was going for the double. Ok the ball gets away from the SS and Manny ends up on 3rd.

In the scoring of the play it says Manny advance to 3rd on the error, but how did he get to 2b without being crediting the double?

[Nigel Tufnel]

In the scoring of the play it says Manny advance to 3rd on the error, but how did he get to 2b without being crediting the double?

On the throw that was cut off. Happens all the time.

[Riggodrill44]

On the throw that was cut off. Happens all the time.

o

That's the confusion to me.I have seen plenty runners leg out doubles.Why isn't it scored a double when a runner is on base?

[El Gordo]

o

That's the confusion to me.I have seen plenty runners leg out doubles.Why isn't it scored a double when a runner is on base?

They had the option to throw to 2B from the OF, but chose to throw home instead. Had they thrown to the base conceding the run, he wouldn't have taken 2B.

[bdlj0887]

Manny also took away a double tonight

The fact that he stopped the double AND got the out was just ridiculous.

[DrungoHazewood]

A "quick hit" article from Bill James:

Manny Machado has hit 31 doubles through the Orioles’ first 71 games. At that pace he would hit 73 doubles this season, which would break the major league record for doubles in a season, which is 67 (Earl Webb, 1931). What is the chance that he will break that record?

As best I can estimate it, it’s about 3%.

Although Machado has been hitting doubles at an incredible pace, he is only 6 games ahead of the record pace at this writing. He would still have to hit 37 doubles in 91 games to break the record—a formidable assignment.</SPAN>

To estimate his chance of breaking the record, we need to estimate two things:</SPAN>

1) The number of at bats he will get the rest of this season, and</SPAN>

2) How many doubles he should hit per at bat.</SPAN>

Machado has 307 at bats through 71 games. At that pace he would have 700 at bats on the season.

Only four players in history have had 700 at bats in a season, so that’s asking a lot.</SPAN>

...

</SPAN>

If Machado hit doubles with the frequency of a young Ted Williams, his chance of hitting 37 more doubles in 390 at bats would be 8.5%. If he had 380 more at bats, his chance of hitting 37 more doubles would be 6.4%; 365 at bats, 3.9%; 350 at bats, 2.3%; 335 at bats, 1.2%; 320 at bats, 0.6%; 305 at bats, 0.28%; and 290 at bats, .01%.</SPAN>

Combining those into one number, then, the chance would be 4%... So that method says four percent, but that method is perhaps a little unrealistically optimistic...

So… .4% seems high; let’s say 3%.

</SPAN>

I suppose the thing this misses is the chance that Manny really does have a true talent for doubles higher than anyone else ever has. Not terribly likely. But it does show the big hill Manny has to climb. If he hits doubles at the rate of a young Ted Williams he still won't break the record.

[Can_of_corn]

A "quick hit" article from Bill James:

</SPAN>

I suppose the thing this misses is the chance that Manny really does have a true talent for doubles higher than anyone else ever has. Not terribly likely. But it does show the big hill Manny has to climb. If he hits doubles at the rate of a young Ted Williams he still won't break the record.

Neyer mentioned that article yesterday so I figured you would talk about it.

It is a pretty long standing record and I think other players have been ahead of the pace Manny is at.

I would like to think he has a 10% or so shot at it but 3% is probably more realistic.

[DrungoHazewood]

It is a pretty long standing record and I think other players have been ahead of the pace Manny is at.

I remember quite a few instances of fairly generic players being on pace to break the record. For example, Brad Fullmer sticks in my head... in 1998 he had 34 doubles through the end of June and he ended up with 44. The other day I looked up the record for doubles in the first half and it was Edgar with 42 in 1996 (in 85 games). In the second half he played 54 games and had 10 more doubles.

[Aglets]

The most doubles ever hit by a 20 year old (A-Roid) is 54.

Hopefully ESPN will start to explode when Manny gets near that number.

[tinamodotti]

Manny Machado has hit 31 doubles through the Orioles? first 71 games.

BJ is a little mixed up. Manny had 32 through 71 games. Every double is important in such prognostications!

[DrungoHazewood]

James notes that Manny needs 37 (as per tinamodotti it's actually 36) doubles in the remaining 91 games to break the record. So I looked up how many players had ever hit 36 or more doubles in the first 91 games of a season, and the answer is "a lot". Well, kind of... it's at least 18.

And the record for doubles in a teams' first 73 games is 37, by Edgar in '96. Manny is tied for 6th with his 33.

Timeframe for records is 1916-present, so it's plausible someone else was better prior to 1916. Like maybe Tip O'Neill or Hugh Duffy who both had over 50 doubles in a 128-ish game schedule before the turn of the century. Or Ned Williamson who hit 49 in 98 games in 1883, helped by a park with 200-foot fences which led to many ground rule doubles.

[El Gordo]

In 2009 when BRob had 56 2BH, by the ASB he had 29.Manny could have 10 more than that by the ASB. Then he would need to hit 29 the second half to break the record. Manny's approach makes him as much of a doubles hitter as BRob IMO. It's possible for him to get to 68 if he avoids a protracted slump.

[tinamodotti]

Double #34 today in team game 76.

Through 76 games for the 1931 Red Sox, Earl Webb had 36 doubles.

[scOtt]

Double #34 today in team game 76.

Through 76 games for the 1931 Red Sox, Earl Webb had 36 doubles.

This is similar to Hack Wilson's RBI record. 1930 - 191. Manny is on that pace. A chance to break a long held record that SHOULD have been broken long ago.