O's get Bud Norris

[Palmoripken]

Here's the free part of Keith Law's analysis. Sounds like he thinks the O's did fairly well.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=1071

Yes, that's another way to look at it. We get a better starter than Hammel and Hammel could very well be like Hunter- much effective out of the pen.

[TonySoprano]

Considering what the Red Sox traded away for Peavy (#7 prospect, #22 prospect, 3 A-ball players), who made the better trade, them or us?

[bpilktree]

Considering what the Red Sox traded away for Peavy (#7 prospect, #22 prospect, 3 A-ball players), who made the better trade, them or us?

Us by a large margin for a few reasons. Durability, Money, Years under control, and they lost a prospect that is contributing now.

I don't think using the comp pick is that big of a deal as some think. We still have a budget for draft picks and the last few years one of our top three has always been a pick to save money for later signabilty guys. This year we can draft some normal guys and then use any extra money for more of those type of guys. Let's just say this trade IMO is for Hoes, Hader, and Espisito.

[eb45]

Hammel 2013/Career -- Norris 2013/Career

Sierra 4.66/4.31 -- 4.50/3.99

ERA+ 80/93 -- 104/92 remember higher numbers are better in ERA+

HR/FB 13.4/10.9 -- 6.9/10.7

Using the stats you used, 2013 statistical Bud Norris is better than 2013 Jason Hammel. Career's are similar, but I would assume Bud Norris will have years more like 2013 the next 2 years rather than his career numbers.

That's not a very good assumption. Norris' HR/FB probably isn't sustainable given his profile. With that increasing, his ERA+ will probably decrease, and his SIERA will remain relatively static because SIERA measures a player's effectiveness with luck removed.

Another important thing to remember is that the Orioles didn't trade for what Norris did from April to July, they traded for what he'll do in August and September (not October, you don't trade for what a player will do in October). The numbers suggest he won't do in August and September what he did from April to July.

[notyourbuddy]

Considering what the Red Sox traded away for Peavy (#7 prospect, #22 prospect, 3 A-ball players), who made the better trade, them or us?

Sox gave up slightly more to get Peavy, but he is the better pitcher (if he can stay off the DL). Better walk rate, hits per nine, better strike out rates, and effective against both lefties & righties... and he is doing all this in the tougher league.

He will improve the Sox's chance of winning the division more than Norris will improve ours (and isn't that what trades at the deadline are all about?)

[Roll Tide]

Keith Law thinks the Astros didnt get enough.

Baltimore Orioles get: RHP Bud Norris

Houston Astros get: OF L.J. Hoes, LHP Josh Hader, competitive balance draft pick

The Orioles' acquisition of Bud Norris gives them needed starting pitching depth, especially with Jason Hammel going on the DL on Wednesday, but also could help bolster their right-handed relief corps, if everyone comes back healthy and available. The Astros get a 4A position player, who gets on base, and a lottery-ticket lefty with arm strength but a long ways to go.

Norris was the nominal No. 1 starter in Houston, but is, at best, a fourth starter in a good rotation like Baltimore's. He's got velocity, but not movement or command, and is much more of a two-pitch pitcher. His changeup is below-average and left-handed hitters have always hit him well (.282/.356/.460 since the start of 2011) because of that weakness.

Several front-office execs told me they view Norris as a potential setup guy who would likely reach the upper 90s with a plus slider in that role. However, he at least offers durability in the rotation and can fill in while Hammel is out.

For Houston, it's a lower return than I'd expected given how much interest there seemed to be in Norris this month and even last offseason. Hoes can only play left field; the Orioles tried to convert him to second base, but he struggled badly, with an error every five games, and he's not quick enough to handle center. He has a short, high-contact stroke from the right side and has always had solid walk rates, with a .406 OBP this year in Triple-A. He could be a bench guy or below-average regular in left.

Hader was my sleeper prospect for the Orioles this year, ninth in their system. He's a hard-throwing lefty who can reach 94 regularly from a low three-quarters arm slot, but with poor command and fringy secondary stuff right now. He's just 19 with only 113 innings in pro ball and has an arm the Astros can dream on, but even in a best-case scenario, he's three years away.

[Il BuonO]

After watching this game tonight I'm not sure we traded for the right guy.

[sangar]

After watching this game tonight I'm not sure we traded for the right guy.

Yeah, Cy Oberholtzer looks pretty good.

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, Cy Oberholtzer looks pretty good.

Sheesh, I guess. Final line 7 IP 3 H 6 SO 0 BB on only 87 pitches. I could only hope for a spot start like that. Somehow I'm guessing that will be a lot for ol Bud to shoot for.

[Fla_O'sfan]

While I give the FO credit for trying to find help for this team, it may very well be that they wish that they didn't make any of these trades in a couple weeks.

[Crazysilver03]

While I give the FO credit for trying to find help for this team' date=' it may very well be that they wish that they didn't make any of these trades in a couple weeks.[/quote']

Feldman was had for players that weren't helping the team. He could be brought back next year as the 5th starter. Norris gives the team a 4th starter moving forward. The KRod trade might be deemed pointless but Delmonico has a low probability of making the majors.

[notyourbuddy]

He [Feldman] could be brought back next year as the 5th starter. Norris gives the team a 4th starter moving forward.

Feldman > Norris

Anyone else agree?

[Jonesy10]

Norris is a solid addition but we badly need more hitters. Our offense is just dead. Everybody is hitting poorly.

[eb45]

Feldman was had for players that weren't helping the team. He could be brought back next year as the 5th starter. Norris gives the team a 4th starter moving forward. The KRod trade might be deemed pointless but Delmonico has a low probability of making the majors.

If the Orioles don't have four starters better than Bud Norris going into next season, that will be a problem. Feldman is a serviceable #4, and the trade for him was fine. I can even get behind the Delmonico for KRod trade, though I think the O's overpaid, because KRod should be a shutdown reliever. Norris, by all reasonable statistical analysis, can't be expected to be anywhere near as good as Rodriguez or even Feldman, and the O's gave up more for him than they did for either of the others. I don't know if I'd even say Norris will definitely be better over the next couple months than Hammel would be.

[eb45]

What reasonable analysis is that? Both Feldman and Norris have a ERA+ of 104 so far this season. Rodriguez will throw about 25 innings the rest of the year and he was a below average last year. The O's got him when his value was inflated and he's a rental. The Norris trade can be defended on value plus service time.

His unsustainably low HR/FB, his inability to get lefties out, his declining velocity and accompanying declining K/9, his high flyball tendencies, his very poor track record prior to this year, his move from a neutral park to an extreme hitters' park (especially for LHB), his WHIP of over 1.4 (bottom ten among qualified AL starters), his SIERA of 4.50 (bottom ten among qualified MLB starters), his awful changeup. Any one or two of these would be a red flag. All of them combined is a gigantic flashing sign that says STAY AWAY.

I mean, I'm not crazy about the K-Rod trade, because I don't like trading for relievers or rentals and definitely not rental relievers, but Rodriguez has a track record of being a good pitcher, which Norris doesn't. And if Rodriguez's value is inflated, then what's Norris?