Will Manny hit enough to stick at 3B

[El Gordo]

You speak as though hardy had a poor bat... Look at SS's around the league... More HR than any SS since he's been an oriole.

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HR aren't important. Just walks.

[El Gordo]

I won't argue that Hardy didn't have a good bat. I will argue going forward (check out his stats this year) that he is not going to be an above average offensive player going forward.

If we go by this year's stats then the only player on the team who will have an above average year is Cruz. Hardy is not alone in that regard.

[sfosfan]

Manny is going to hit well enough to play 3b. But it won't matter- Manny will move to ss after JJ leaves, it's just a matter of when.

[El Gordo]

Next season. Manny SS 4W, Schoop 3B 2.W. Hardy SS 3 W, Manny 3B 5W. Make it up with LF, RF , DH? Who are you getting for those slots?

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course if webbrick is right then Manny won't be a 6 win 3B going forward.

Given his extreme youth there is no reason, at this time, to think his bat won't improve. At 21 Brooks put up a .597 OPS.

Yea... but can the Orioles really compete with a run-of-the-mill HOF third baseman? They need an inner circle guy to overcome... well... stuff.

[mdbdotcom]

Manny is going to hit well enough to play 3b. But it won't matter- Manny will move to ss after JJ leaves, it's just a matter of when.

I hope it's next season. I really don't want to see JJ become BRob II.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I hope it's next season. I really don't want to see JJ become BRob II.

So by that logic are you opposed to extending any vets?

[mdbdotcom]

So by that logic are you opposed to extending any vets?

I am opposed to extending middle infielders in their 30s unless they have been special for a long time, like Cal or Jeter. JJ is 31 now. He won't be getting better. Whether or not his offensive decline has already begun remains to be seen. Is there a chance he could be just as good for the next three or four years? Sure, but an even better chance that he won't.

He's likely to make a lot of money at ages 32-35. I hope it's not from the Orioles. I'm all for moving Manny to SS and finding a replacement at 3B.

[sfosfan]

I hope it's next season. I really don't want to see JJ become BRob II.

I don't mind whenever it happens. If we can find a combination of Manny + Other that is better than Manny + JJ, then it will happen. But if the Manny + Other < Manny + JJ, then resign JJ. It makes no sense to move Manny over to SS if we have to hand the 3b job to Ryan Flaherty (sorry Ryan, didn't mean it that way), that's all. And pay JJ what he's worth. If JJ wants more years or dollars, let him test the FA market and try to resign him if the market turns bad for JJ. Just don't dismiss JJ and then hand the job over some journeyman.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't mind whenever it happens. If we can find a combination of Manny + Other that is better than Manny + JJ, then it will happen. But if the Manny + Other < Manny + JJ, then resign JJ. It makes no sense to move Manny over to SS if we have to hand the 3b job to Ryan Flaherty (sorry Ryan, didn't mean it that way), that's all. And pay JJ what he's worth. If JJ wants more years or dollars, let him test the FA market and try to resign him if the market turns bad for JJ. Just don't dismiss JJ and then hand the job over some journeyman.

the

I still think, despite his difficulties there earlier in the season, that Schoop's eventual home is third.

He needs to play some winter ball and get some reps over there.

[mdbdotcom]

I still think, despite his difficulties there earlier in the season, that Schoop's eventual home is third.

He needs to play some winter ball and get some reps over there.

He also could work there with Bobby Dickerson before games, just as Manny did in Bowie in 2012.

[DrungoHazewood]

I am opposed to extending middle infielders in their 30s unless they have been special for a long time, like Cal or Jeter. JJ is 31 now. He won't be getting better. Whether or not his offensive decline has already begun remains to be seen. Is there a chance he could be just as good for the next three or four years? Sure, but an even better chance that he won't.

He's likely to make a lot of money at ages 32-35. I hope it's not from the Orioles. I'm all for moving Manny to SS and finding a replacement at 3B.

There have been 42 non-HOF 2B or SS who accumulated an average of at least three wins per season from age 30-35. From age 25-30 JJ Hardy has been worth just shy of 18 rWAR. Players who were worth 17-19 wins at those ages include Jeff Kent, Hanley Ramirez, Julio Franco, and Ray Durham was only a couple wins better. Mark Belanger, Omar Vizquel, Dan Uggla, Bert Campaneris, Frank White, Steve Sax, Davey Johnson... all worth at least several wins less than JJ.

If Hardy isn't good enough, then all of those guys weren't good enough.

[mdbdotcom]

There have been 42 non-HOF 2B or SS who accumulated an average of at least three wins per season from age 30-35. From age 25-30 JJ Hardy has been worth just shy of 18 rWAR. Players who were worth 17-19 wins at those ages include Jeff Kent, Hanley Ramirez, Julio Franco, and Ray Durham was only a couple wins better. Mark Belanger, Omar Vizquel, Dan Uggla, Bert Campaneris, Frank White, Steve Sax, Davey Johnson... all worth at least several wins less than JJ.

If Hardy isn't good enough, then all of those guys weren't good enough.

None of them made the kind of money Hardy will make. A few of them, including Uggla, Sax, and Johnson, didn't play at that level ages 32-35. It's a risk, and not one I'd like to see the Orioles make, even as much as I enjoy watching JJ play.

[DrungoHazewood]

None of them made the kind of money Hardy will make. A few of them, including Uggla, Sax, and Johnson, didn't play at that level ages 32-35. It's a risk, and not one I'd like to see the Orioles make, even as much as I enjoy watching JJ play.

How much do you think he's going to make? Over his career he's averaged about three wins per full season, and has been a bit over that the preceding three years. So let's say a 3-year deal, paying for 3, 2.5 and 2 wins for a total of 7.5. At $6M per win that's 3/45, at $5M per win that's 3/37.5. Who knows, maybe he'd offer up a bit of a hometown discount. Or maybe he'd accept less if he continues to play at the sub-2-win pace he's on for 2014. I don't think I'd define roughly $10-12M a year as a lot of money. $15M per is probably a bit much.

Like I've told Gordo... Hardy will likely sign for a fairly reasonable contract. But he's not the only ballplayer in the world, and there are other options that might make up for the loss of his production. I guess a lot depends on Peter Angelos' checkbook.

[mdbdotcom]

How much do you think he's going to make? Over his career he's averaged about three wins per full season, and has been a bit over that the preceding three years. So let's say a 3-year deal, paying for 3, 2.5 and 2 wins for a total of 7.5. At $6M per win that's 3/45, at $5M per win that's 3/37.5. Who knows, maybe he'd offer up a bit of a hometown discount. Or maybe he'd accept less if he continues to play at the sub-2-win pace he's on for 2014. I don't think I'd define roughly $10-12M a year as a lot of money. $15M per is probably a bit much.

Like I've told Gordo... Hardy will likely sign for a fairly reasonable contract. But he's not the only ballplayer in the world, and there are other options that might make up for the loss of his production. I guess a lot depends on Peter Angelos' checkbook.

If he doesn't start hitting, he won't be worth a lot. If he bounces back, it will just be a question as to whether or not he's desirable to one of the teams that can spend foolish amounts on a player. The Yankees could have a lot of interest.

The size of the Orioles budget limits the number of mistakes they can get away with. I'd like to see them focus on extending Machado for at least a couple years beyond his current walk year, and I think part of that means playing him in the position he wants to play. This off-season may be their last chance to lock him up for a while. Once he hits arbitration, it will be over. This strategy would also be a risk, but the upside of this risk is much higher.