Orioles Pitching without Wieters

[TonySoprano]

I never made a statistical argument in the first place.

3 years? Seriously, how many games would Clevenger and Wieters have to pitch with the same pitching staff for a statistical study to have any significance? Serious question. Haven't gotten an answer.

Well your answer isn't this

Okay. Let's revisit this in 3 years when all of the data is in.

For S&G's, I'd go back and look at this at the break.

Now if you want to be technical, Wieters may not face the same number of games with the "same pitching staff," as my suspicion is he'll go under the surgeon's knife this year.

For example, right now all you can do, as close to "apples to apples" is this

Tillman 1st 3 GS w/ Wieters: 2 ER, 21 2/3 IP; 1st 3 w/Clevenger: 6 ER, 20 IP.

That definitively tells us....nothing. Tell me how you'll make the comparison if Wieters is out an extended period? Will you compare 2013 to 2014?

[24fps]

You couldn't trust them to tell the truth.

I suspect you couldn't get them to offer an opinion in the first place. Furthermore I wouldn't know where to begin to devise a metric to accurately measure the impact of a pitcher's confidence (or lack thereof) in his catcher - a dynamic that would almost certainly factor in for better or worse. In the absence of a larger data set, I'm at a loss as to how definitively make this debate more meaningful at this point in time.

Personally if I were given the choice between a healthy Matt Wieters and a combination of Clevenger and Joseph then I would choose Matt without hesitation.

[weams]

A no hitter was caught by a player that had converted to catching a few weeks before.

Curt Blefary

Clank.

[El Gordo]

I suspect you couldn't get them to offer an opinion in the first place. Furthermore I wouldn't know where to begin to devise a metric to accurately measure the impact of a pitcher's confidence (or lack thereof) in his catcher - a dynamic that would almost certainly factor in for better or worse. In the absence of a larger data set, I'm at a loss as to how definitively make this debate more meaningful at this point in time.

Personally if I were given the choice between a healthy Matt Wieters and a combination of Clevenger and Joseph then I would choose Matt without hesitation.

The easy thing to do is to dismiss the things you can't measure as irrelevant, and focus on the things you can. If they can't be measured they don't exist. That way you don't have to know anything about how the game is actually played to be an expert.

[Ohfan67]

Blocking balls and suppressing the running game >>>> than this nebulous stuff.

[El Gordo]

Blocking balls and suppressing the running game >>>> than this nebulous stuff.

Really? This nebulous stuff effects every pitch. How many SB attempts occur in any game on average? How many times does a catcher block a ball in the dirt? What makes it seem more important is you can see it. But there are more things in heaven and earth that are dreamt of in your philosophy, or show up on your TV screen.

[24fps]

The easy thing to do is to dismiss the things you can't measure as irrelevant, and focus on the things you can. If they can't be measured they don't exist. That way you don't have to know anything about how the game is actually played to be an expert.

I agree and it's the achilles heel of baseball message boards IMO. A high percentage of the assertions encountered in a place like the OH often can and should be debunked (or better contextualized) by using statistical analysis intelligently. That it's not always an appropriate option doesn't seem to matter to many, but I usually find the process of everyone arriving at some kind of resolution worth the effort anyway.

[TonySoprano]

Having trouble with sarcasm? My original post didn't make a statistical argument. Someone called out SSS! I said that we would then have to wait 3 years to form an opinion based on statistics. You are making my point. We will probably never be able to make a statistical argument about this. So, you either have an opinion based on what you see or SSS or you just say "I can't form an opinion without statistics".

Thanks for proving my point when I said, "Next you'll dig in your heels further and claim that was your point all along." It wasn't.

From the very beginning, the OP talked about a small sample size. Your initial response to that was "At the very least, it should destroy the myth about how good some think Wieters is at calling a game and "handling" the staff." So how would that "myth be destroyed then?"

[El Gordo]

I agree and it's the achilles heel of baseball message boards IMO. A high percentage of the assertions encountered in a place like the OH often can and should be debunked (or better contextualized) by using statistical analysis intelligently. That it's not always an appropriate option doesn't seem to matter to many, but I usually find the process of everyone arriving at some kind of resolution worth the effort anyway.

My problem is I listen to a lot of interviews with baseball people; players, coaches, managers, and GM's, etc. They all place a lot of stress on the intangibles. They don't deny the value of stats, they just seem to feel the human aspects of the games are paramount. It's hard to imagine how all these people could be so stupid and yet keep their jobs.

[OsLuvrInKy]

I think its a interesting trend that we should continue to watch to see where it goes.

One factor that goes against the Wieters theory is that Clevenger caught 5 complete games in April and the staff ERA in those games was 6.19.

There are other factors. Here are a few:

1) New pitching coaches who philosophy may be settle in with the staff.

2) Warmer weather may be helping.

3) Jimenez has a track record of not pitching well in April but doing better in May. 6.59 ERA April, 0.46 ERA in May.

4) Playing teams that are not a familiar with the O's pitchers outside of the AL East in May.

But all the starters seem to be better in May.

I totally agree with this here. IMO I think these items have more relevance to the recent spate of better pitching than who is catching the game. Especially the bolded.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2014/05/troy-patton-is-pitching-well-out-of-the-orioles-bullpen.html

Patton recently worked on some changes to his mechanics to better repeat his delivery and speed up his arm action. He now pitches exclusively from the stretch position and, so far, he is getting the desired results.

He said the tweaks, which came about with the help of pitching coach Dave Wallace and bullpen coach Dom Chiti, have helped him repeat his mechanics and produce a consistent arm slot.

"It helps get my arm moving faster," he said. "I was kind of falling toward the plate, trying to be quick. It's a little bit more of an athletic motion."

[joedogg9999]

Ive been saying this for years around here and always get killed. Wieters is very overrated around here, ESPECIALLY with his game calling and defense. Hes terrible at calling a game and the only thing he does at a high level is throw guys out stealing. Its time to deal with those facts. Especially people around these parts.

[CA-ORIOLE]

My problem is I listen to a lot of interviews with baseball, people; players ,coaches, managers, and GM's, etc. They all place a lot of stress on the intangibles. They don't deny the value of stats, they just seem to feel the human aspects of the games are paramount. It's hard to imagine how all these people could be so stupid and yet keep their jobs.

I know I used to buy in every year when Kevin Millar talked about intangibles and team chemistry was and how the team had a good chance at the playoffs. Every year we lost 90+ games. Maybe the crap about intangibles is 95% nonsense.

Maybe Joseph and Clevenger aren't spending all their time watching video games and are preparing for the games just as well as Wieters did. Maybe Wieters "intangibles" along with some anecdotal quips and quotes from his manager and select players really don't matter all that much and guys like you are simply blowing them out of proportion to suit your own agenda/bias. Meanwhile you get to sit atop your well constructed strawman and denigrate anybody that would question your ability to consider the value of these "intangibles" as not understanding the complexities and nuances of the game.

I've been listening to you, Frobby and others cite this BS about Wieter's now forever. I don't see how citing this small group of well pitched games without Wieters is any less meaningful than your consistent nonsense.

[Can_of_corn]

Ive been saying this for years around here and always get killed. Wieters is very overrated around here, ESPECIALLY with his game calling and defense. Hes terrible at calling a game and the only thing he does at a high level is throw guys out stealing. Its time to deal with those facts. Especially people around these parts.

Then explain the fielding bible award.

This isn't gold glove voting we are talking about here, this is the best and the brightest at analyzing defense.

[Tx Oriole]

12 games nearly about as small a sample as you can get, so you responding with that post is essentially -- as I said -- you throwing out the very idea of SSS. I felt it deserved a worthy response. I guess 2 emoticons is too much data for one post.

SSS? I have wondered what that means? Maybe I am dense.

[Tx Oriole]

Of course Wieters is traveling with the team and I believe he is helping Clevenger and Joseph gameplan.

That is a good point Can. Maybe he is helping that way.