Officially Worried About Tillman

[Bahama O's Fan]

In the "Tillman, Today" thread, I asked after his complete game if he should have an extra day off. Twice he has looked horrible after pitching great and long in the previous game.

[Aglets]

I think this goes to show how much he misses having Wieters behind the plate, what with his great knack for calling a game, pitch blocking, framing, etc.

[Guest rochester]

Does that mean he's Norfolk's #4 starter, or he's going to be a #4 in the majors? In either case, that pretty sharply disagrees with Gausman's top 10 or 20 (in MLB) placement in most prospect lists.

ummm, Drungo? I think he meant he met a Boy Scout not baseball scout. maybe?

[Guest rochester]

I think this goes to show how much he misses have Wieters behind the plate, what with his great knack for calling a game, pitch blocking, framing, etc.

Who?!?!?

[PaulFolk]

I know this isn't really fair but he's been maybe the worst pitcher in the league if you take out his 3 gems. Other than that he has been really, really bad.

Really? If you take out 30% of his starts, he's been bad? How does that compare to other pitchers in the league if you take out each of their three best starts?

[Bahama O's Fan]

Really? If you take out 30% of his starts, he's been bad? How does that compare to other pitchers in the league if you take out each of their three best starts?

I would love to see those stats. Someone pull up the best pitchers in the league this year, remove 30% of their starts and show us their stats.

[waroriole]

Really? If you take out 30% of his starts, he's been bad? How does that compare to other pitchers in the league if you take out each of their three best starts?

Against batters where he doesn't get an out, his ERA is infinity.

[calmunderfire]

Pedro Martinez had 29 starts where he allowed 6+ runs, and another 23 where he allowed 5. That's pretty close to two full seasons of starts where (arguably) the greatest starter of all time pitched like crap. At Pedro's absolute peak, in 1999, he had a start where he allowed 9 runs in 3.2 innings.

This is a great point because even the best allow runs. To be fair though only 7 of those runs were earned and it was at the height of the baseball's offensive era. But my idea is baseball's are put in play the majority of the time. There's only 9 guys in the field and sometimes they find holes or become misplayed.

[MrOrange82]

Really? If you take out 30% of his starts, he's been bad? How does that compare to other pitchers in the league if you take out each of their three best starts?

Tillman's made 10 starts. In three of those starts, he's thrown eight innings or more (8.0, 8.1, and 9.0) and given up one ER or less (1, 0, and 0). In the remaining seven starts, he's thrown six innings just once (6.0 exactly), and he's given up three ER or more in six out of those seven starts (the exception being one ER in five innings against Boston in the opener).

Saying he's been one of the worst pitchers in the league apart from his "gems" is an exaggeration, but he has been pretty bad in 60-70% of his starts. And that should be troubling to everyone.

[calmunderfire]

Tillman's made 10 starts. In three of those starts, he's thrown eight innings or more (8.0, 8.1, and 9.0) and given up one ER or less (1, 0, and 0). In the remaining seven starts, he's thrown six innings just once (6.0 exactly), and he's given up three ER or more in six out of those seven starts (the exception being one ER in five innings against Boston in the opener).

Saying he's been one of the worst pitchers in the league apart from his "gems" is an exaggeration, but he has been pretty bad in 60-70% of his starts. And that should be troubling to everyone.

Do you think the inconsistency is because he's not carrying his best stuff this year?

[MrOrange82]

Do you think the inconsistency is because he's not carrying his best stuff this year?

I think his command has been spotty at best. His average FB velocity has been up and down over the last few years, but "stuff" just doesn't matter as much when you've been as wild as he's been. He walked 68 batters last year in 206.1 innings. This year, he's already on pace for 210.0 innings and 85 walks.

[Three Run Homer]

Tillman's made 10 starts. In three of those starts, he's thrown eight innings or more (8.0, 8.1, and 9.0) and given up one ER or less (1, 0, and 0). In the remaining seven starts, he's thrown six innings just once (6.0 exactly), and he's given up three ER or more in six out of those seven starts (the exception being one ER in five innings against Boston in the opener).

Saying he's been one of the worst pitchers in the league apart from his "gems" is an exaggeration, but he has been pretty bad in 60-70% of his starts. And that should be troubling to everyone.

This is an exaggeration. I wouldn't say he was "pretty bad" in the season opener--he gave up 1 ER in 5 IP against a team that drives up pitch counts mercilessly. I also wouldn't say he was "pretty bad" in his start against Tampa in early May--6 IP and 3 ER is not great, but it's pretty good. The O's won both of those games.

Along with his 3 gems, that's 5 starts where he's been pretty good to outstanding. He's had three starts that are pretty bad (5 IP, 3 ER twice and 4.2 IP, 3 ER once), and two that have been train wrecks.

Interestingly, both of his train wrecks have come right after starts where Buck clearly left him in the game too long. He threw 122 pitches against the Red Sox on April 18, and came back to give up 7 ER against Toronto. He threw 117 pitches in his shutout against KC and came back with last night's stinker.

I think Buck is endangering Tillman's productivity and perhaps his health every time he leaves him in for more than 110 pitches. Buck would like Tillman to be a horse, but he just isn't.

[MrOrange82]

This is an exaggeration. I wouldn't say he was "pretty bad" in the season opener--he gave up 1 ER in 5 IP against a team that drives up pitch counts mercilessly. I also wouldn't say he was "pretty bad" in his start against Tampa in early May--6 IP and 3 ER is not great, but it's pretty good. The O's won both of those games.

Along with his 3 gems, that's 5 starts where he's been pretty good to outstanding. He's had three starts that are pretty bad (5 IP, 3 ER twice and 4.2 IP, 3 ER once), and two that have been train wrecks.

Interestingly, both of his train wrecks have come right after starts where Buck clearly left him in the game too long. He threw 122 pitches against the Red Sox on April 18, and came back to give up 7 ER against Toronto. He threw 117 pitches in his shutout against KC and came back with last night's stinker.

I think Buck is endangering Tillman's productivity and perhaps his health every time he leaves him in for more than 110 pitches. Buck would like Tillman to be a horse, but he just isn't.

I don't consider pitching to a 4.50 ERA to be "pretty good," even if it's technically a quality start. I also don't think throwing 104 pitches to get through five innings against Boston to be all that good. He only gave up one ER, but his WHIP was 1.60. That's why I said 60-70%...I was potentially giving him the benefit of the doubt for one of those two games, neither of which I'd categorize as "good" or "pretty good" if I were putting them under a microscope.

[Just Regular]

I think the choice to start Gausman against Detroit in Chen's place and to save Chen for Cleveland are straightforward examples of seeking the platoon advantage.

When I looked at batter handedness around the league, the Tigers were by far the most right handed hitting team, and the Indians leaned left very hard. I think the notion of not using your only left handed starter in a four game series was too distasteful as they mapped out the rotation in this part of the schedule.

If anything does prove to be wrong, I'll think that 5th inning up in Boston was the original overstressing Tillman event.

On a separate note, Cleveland will be a good heat check to see just how well Norris is running.

[Rene88]

Anyone else?

Caveat: didn't see game today, heading back from Pittsburgh/Falling Waters.

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