Machado: Demotion an Option?

[LoyalBirdFan]

I like Manny Machado. I don't think he should be demoted (yet), but he should be moved down in the order.

As for stars at 22 years of age, I ran a report for 22 year olds since 1947 (100 games played) and sorted by OPS. I can't see the first nine results, but Ken Griffey is 20th (1992). His slash line was .308/.361/.535 with 27 HRs and 103 RBI.

10 Dick Allen .939 162 1964 22 PHI NL 709 632 125 201 38 13 29 91 67 13 138 0 6 3 8 3 4 .318 .382 .557

11 Mickey Mantle .933 146 1954 22 NYY AL 649 543 129 163 17 12 27 102 102 107 0 2 4 3 5 2 .300 .408 .525

12 Johnny Bench .932 158 1970 22 CIN NL 671 605 97 177 35 4 45 148 54 9 102 0 1 11 12 5 2 .293 .345 .587

13 Yasiel Puig .925 104 2013 22 LAD NL 432 382 66 122 21 2 19 42 36 6 97 11 0 3 6 11 8 .319 .391 .534

14 Hank Aaron .923 153 1956 22 MLN NL 660 609 106 200 34 14 26 92 37 6 54 2 5 7 21 2 4 .328 .365 .558

15 Alex Rodriguez .919 161 1998 22 SEA AL 748 686 123 213 35 5 42 124 45 0 121 10 3 4 12 46 13 .310 .360 .560

16 Cesar Cedeno .913 139 1973 22 HOU NL 576 525 86 168 35 2 25 70 41 7 79 7 1 2 19 56 15 .320 .376 .537

17 David Wright .912 160 2005 22 NYM NL 657 575 99 176 42 1 27 102 72 2 113 7 0 3 16 17 7 .306 .388 .523

18 Austin Kearns .907 107 2002 22 CIN NL 435 372 66 117 24 3 13 56 54 3 81 6 0 3 11 6 3 .315 .407 .500

19 Rocky Colavito .903 101 1956 22 CLE AL 380 322 55 89 11 4 21 65 49 0 46 2 4 3 4 0 1 .276 .372 .531

20 Ken Griffey .896 142 1992 22 SEA AL 617 565 83 174 39 4 27 103 44 15 67 5 0 3 15 10 5 .308 .361 .535

So, since 1947, 20 22 year old players have played at least 100 games and had an OPS of 896.

I ran the same thing for 21 year olds.

Since 1947, 20 21 year old players have played at least 100 games and had an OPS of 842.

20th on that list was Ron Santo, .284 .362 .479, with 23 HR and 83 RBIs. 12th was Stanton (2011), .262 .356 .537 and Cabrera (2004) is on the list.

[24fps]

Since you were referring to the best players the game has seen. Take a look at the all time career WAR leaders. Many of them were posting star seasons by the time they were 22.

I don't think anyone here is projecting Manny to be the same caliber as Ruth, Mays, Aaron and other players in that very rarified group. The list you're offering as support does that to a misleading degree IMO.

Compare him to modern era third basemen like Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones, Brooks Robinson and I suspect many others who achieved great success over long careers and Manny compares favorably at this very early stage of his career.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't think anyone here is projecting Manny to be the same caliber as Ruth, Mays, Aaron and other players in that very rarified group. The list you're offering as support does that to a misleading degree IMO.

Compare him to modern era third basemen like Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones, Brooks Robinson and I suspect many others who achieved great success over long careers and Manny compares favorably at this very early stage of his career.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

2013, he was fourth in offense among MLB playing third, right behind Donaldson, Miggy and Longoria, and he was first in defensive, according to fangraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[DrungoHazewood]

Since you were referring to the best players the game has seen. Take a look at the all time career WAR leaders. Many of them were posting star seasons by the time they were 22.

So you're saying that if Manny doesn't hit a lot better in the next year there's a chance he doesn't end his career among the all time leaders in WAR?

[weams]

I don't think anyone here is projecting Manny to be the same caliber as Ruth, Mays, Aaron and other players in that very rarified group. The list you're offering as support does that to a misleading degree IMO.

Compare him to modern era third basemen like Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones, Brooks Robinson and I suspect many others who achieved great success over long careers and Manny compares favorably at this very early stage of his career.

Do you think he has the possibility of a Ron Santo career?

[weams]

So you're saying that if Manny doesn't hit a lot better in the next year there's a chance he doesn't end his career among the all time leaders in WAR?

Yes. That is his argument. And I agree. To say anything otherwise is disingenuous.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Machado's wRC+ is 65, Flaherty's is 72...

You go with the stats then, and I'll go by what I see.

[calmunderfire]

So you're saying that if Manny doesn't hit a lot better in the next year there's a chance he doesn't end his career among the all time leaders in WAR?

The way I comprehended your ideas about Machado's production at his age was that most great players in their early 20s are typically nowhere near their peak values. That just isn't true. Many of them at 22, 23 are posting seasons not much worse than their best seasons or at the least putting up extremely solid numbers. For example Pujols is a very typical great hitter. He didn't have his absolute best years right away, they came in his late 20s like most players, but he was still a incredibly productive, very, very early.

From what I have seen though you seem 100% right about players who put up great hitting seasons very young tend to have good careers.

[calmunderfire]

Same thing with Miguel Cabrera. His best seasons didn't come immediately, but he was still a natural hitter.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Demotion should be an option, however it would be nice if they moved him down to the lower third of the order FIRST to see if that helps him get on track. After watching Buck though, I think he'll hit #2 the whole year no matter what.

I agree with this.

[Redskins Rick]

I think it end up as Manny getting assigned to AAA on his return from suspenion to get him back ready for big league level play.

It serves two things:

1. doesn't appear as an outright demotion.

2. and yet, allows him to spend a few games in AAA to work on his game.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Do you think he has the possibility of a Ron Santo career?

Hard to say. Santo was very good for his era. HOF caliber imo. Like Jones I think Manny's offense will be largely dependent on how much power he develops. The rest of it by defense/postional value (3b/ss).

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think it end up as Manny getting assigned to AAA on his return from suspenion to get him back ready for big league level play.

It serves two things:

1. doesn't appear as an outright demotion.

2. and yet, allows him to spend a few games in AAA to work on his game.

I think this very well be what happens. Our replacement options seem pretty limited though.

[Jonesy10]

The guys has shown the ability to hit the major leagues already and hit with authority. If you don;t see much talent in Machado then I don;t what else to say to you other than me, and just about every single other evaluator in the game of baseball would disagree. Is he struggling and does he have things to improve upon? Yep! But to say he doesn't have much talent really defeats any semblence of an argument you may have other than it's just your opinion.

644/24

I am just honestly wondering what projection/talent people see in him offensively. He is very slow, although he seems to be a pretty good baserunner. His walk rate is horrific. He doesn't have much power. He was an incredible doubles hitter for the first 3 months of 2013 (38 in 358 AB's) but has barely hit any before or since then (24 in 644 AB's). His batted ball data is pretty bad. He hits way too many ground balls for a guy with little speed and hits an extraordinary amount of pop ups. Over 60% of his balls in play are either ground balls or pop ups. He just doesn't hit the ball hard very often and is seemingly always behind 0-2/1-2 in counts.

I am not pretending to be a talent evaluator in any way, I'm pretty much just going by the stats and there really hasn't been anything to be too excited about besides those 3 good months according to the numbers that he's put up. He looks like a completely different hitter though than he did in the first half of 2013 and he's showing no signs of turning it around right now. What do you see in Machado offensively and what do you think he could be expected to do offensively for the rest of this season and the next 3?

[24fps]

Do you think he has the possibility of a Ron Santo career?

Not a bad comp IMO. Santo had a good glove although I think Manny's has the potential to be better. I think Santo's career average of 25 HR per seasons sounds about right to me. I think a real difference is that Santo's career OBP was .362. If Machado averaged that in the future, I think we'd all be dancing in the streets.

Looking at his stats on BBRef, it looks like Santo had some early success followed by a setback for a season or so. Like Manny, Santo did almost all of his learning at the ML level from age 20 on. Everything, especially plate discipline, looked like it really kicked in around age 23. If Manny had Ron Santo's career (with a little more longevity) I would be very happy.