Machado: Demotion an Option?

[Going Underground]

He has struggled this year so far. Baseball is a mental game also. I don't think it helps that Manny is struggling and DD is talking about a demotion. He was just hitting pretty well, From May 31-June 6 he was 10 for 25.2 homers,2 doubles and six RBI's.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well he's been a low/mid .600 OPS guy for almost half of his career. Below .700 if you take out the first half of 2013. I'd consider the 2013 first half the fluke, not the rest of his career.

I'm just going to keep repeating this, and maybe eventually it sinks in: Machado's "career" is less than two seasons in his teens and very early 20s. If you're not grading his MLB performance on a substantial curve you're doing him a grave disservice. Most of the best players in history looked very mediocre (or actually more often weren't even in the majors) at his age. That someone could have a fluke season at 20 that never repeats, while possible, seems very unlikely. It is absolutely true that almost everyone who was playing regularly in the majors, even at a low level, at 20 went on to a long, successful MLB career.

[osfan83]

I think when we see him out on the field we forge this is a kid who just had a major knee surgery and what that implies. He is certainly healthy enough to play but that does not mean he 100%. Physiologically it would nearly impossible for him to have the same strength, range of motion, flexibility and level of muscle fatigue that he had prior to he surgery this early on. He is a 21 y.o kid just starting out, not Adrian Peterson in his prime. It should be expected that he might have some struggles. My guess is by next season Manny will be right as rain. He will work through it.

I agree with all of this...but let him work through it at Norfolk, or at the very least at the bottom of the order.

[calmunderfire]

He was awful in the months leading up to his injury as well. He had an .807 OPS in the first half with 39 2B and a .647 OPS with 12 2B in the 2nd half. This year he has what, 3 doubles? And a .600 OPS.

He's had 1 (ONE!!!!) half of baseball where he was good hitter which was only because his BABIP was .360 (way out of line with his numbers in 2012 and from the 2nd half of 2013-now). Other than that his OPS is well below .700

Agreed. Manny still managed to have a well above average BAPIP for the season despite having the 8th highest popup rate in the MLB.

[LoyalBirdFan]

...but let him work through it at Norfolk, or at the very least at the bottom of the order.

This is what most smart organizations would do. :agree:

[calmunderfire]

I'm just going to keep repeating this, and maybe eventually it sinks in: Machado's "career" is less than two seasons in his teens and very early 20s. If you're not grading his MLB performance on a substantial curve you're doing him a grave disservice. Most of the best players in history looked very mediocre (or actually more often weren't even in the majors) at his age. That someone could have a fluke season at 20 that never repeats, while possible, seems very unlikely. It is absolutely true that almost everyone who was playing regularly in the majors, even at a low level, at 20 went on to a long, successful MLB career.

Most great players by the time they are 22, 23 start showing signs or are flat out superstar players. I know Manny is 21, but he is a month away from 22. If he doesn't start showing he can hit within the next season or 2 it's likely that he just isn't going to be a star player.

[LoyalBirdFan]

Most great players by the time they are 22, 23 start showing signs or are flat out superstar players. I know Manny is 21, but he is a month away from 22. If he doesn't start showing he can hit within the next season or 2 it's likely that he just isn't going to be a star player.

Manny hit .266/.352/.438 in AA an never touched AAA, so no one knows what kind of hitter he is going to be. He really needs to be sent down or at least moved down in the order. Don't hold your breath though, because MM has been anointed.

[calmunderfire]

Manny hit .266/.352/.438 in AA an never touched AAA, so no one knows what kind of hitter he is going to be. He really needs to be sent down or at least moved down in the order. Don't hold your breath though, because MM has been anointed.

Agreed. Ideally, Machado should be moved to shortstop given his bat.

[Frobby]

First of all, the first half/second half stats that so many Manny-doubters cite are fundamentally false. They should actually be labeled pre- and post-All Star Break. In Manny's case, they comprise 413 and 254 at-bats respectively. So the stellar .310 BA/.807 OPS he turned in pre-ASB (what you and Baseball Reference misleadingly call the first "half" of 2013) should indeed be given a lot more weight. In fact, those 413 ABs were 62% of 2013 and a little more than half (50.9%) of his total 2013-2014 ABs. It's also clear that Manny was playing tired in the final month or so of 2013, which is understandable since he had never played nearly that many games before in one season in his life; regardless, his glovework did not suffer then and that's what a tremendous amount of his value is based on.

First of all, let me say that I don't think Manny will or should be demoted anytime soon.

However, I disagree with the part of your argument I quoted above. Manny's slump started long before the all-star break. From June 1 through the all-star break he had a .710 OPS. Dividing the season exactly in half, instead of at the all-star break, would make Manny's second half look worse, not better. By that method, through Game 81 Manny had an .826 OPS, and in the second half he had a .657 OPS (cut short by a week when he got hurt in Game 156).

That said, I believe Manny will hit better eventually, and his glove is too good to think the team would benefit by demoting him and putting someone else at 3B. Anyone who watched the first month of the season should know this.

[Tony-OH]

He could get better. He should. Probably a .700 OPS guy. But as I said earlier, the fact that he doesn't walk and doesn't hit HR's isn't helping him, neither is the fact that he actually hasn't hit very many doubles at all besides the first half of 2013. I just don't see how you can say he has elite talent. Defensively? Yes. The problem is if that knee is going to affect him long term in the field he's a mediocre player. Offensively, I see no elite talent, not much talent at all really.

The guys has shown the ability to hit the major leagues already and hit with authority. If you don;t see much talent in Machado then I don;t what else to say to you other than me, and just about every single other evaluator in the game of baseball would disagree. Is he struggling and does he have things to improve upon? Yep! But to say he doesn't have much talent really defeats any semblence of an argument you may have other than it's just your opinion.

[DrungoHazewood]

Most great players by the time they are 22, 23 start showing signs or are flat out superstar players. I know Manny is 21, but he is a month away from 22. If he doesn't start showing he can hit within the next season or 2 it's likely that he just isn't going to be a star player.

He's already shown signs of hitting. He just hasn't put it together for a whole season. And I'm not sure you're right about "most great players." I can list you a whole bunch of great players who weren't great at 22-23.

There were about 40 HOF position players who were in the majors by 23 but had compiled a total rWAR of < 4.0. Hack Wilson was 2-for-10 through age 23. Willie Stargell was sub-replacement through 23. Carlton Fisk, Ed Delehanty, Lou Brock, Tony Perez, and Luke Appling were worth less than half a win through 23. Barry Larkin had a sub-.700 OPS through age 23. Mike Schmidt hit .197 through age 23. Ozzie Smith had a .623 OPS through 23. Brooks didn't clear a .700 OPS until 22, and .800 until 25. Buck Ewing, who some will argue was the greatest player of the 19th century, had a .710 OPS with a .299 OBP through 23.

Then you get to players like Earl Combs and Big Sam Thompson who didn't debut until 25. Or Wade Boggs, Kirby Puckett, and Bill Terry, who debuted at 24.

It looks like about 1/3rd of HOF position players weren't even in the major leagues at Manny's age.

And this is narrowing down the definiton of "star" to "Hall of Famer", which really means the stars among the stars, the very best of the best. I'd guess that a list of people who've made the All Star team would have a median debut age between 23 and 24. I'd guess Manny would be showing signs of greatness if he was in AA like a large number of his age group peers. Funny how a 21-year-old hitting .325 with power in AA is seen as a coming star, but someone who's struggling with some adjustments and inconsistency at the MLB level at the same age is seen by some as a likely disappointment.

[DrungoHazewood]

Agreed. Ideally, Machado should be moved to shortstop given his bat.

It's astonishing that you've basically given up on his bat at an age where many/most HOFers hadn't even seen a live MLB pitch.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here's some context:

Manny is almost two years younger than the average Frederick Key. And while he was there on a rehab assignment going 8-for-12 with an 1.859 OPS he was only older than Adrian Marin.

Manny would be the youngest Bowie Baysox. By almost two years.

Manny is about four years younger than any Norfolk position player.

Manny would be of average age in the Sally League.

There are several players on the Dominican Summer League O's, the lowest rung of the affiliated ladder, older than Manny Machado.

[LoyalBirdFan]

Here's some context:

Manny is almost two years younger than the average Frederick Key. And while he was there on a rehab assignment going 8-for-12 with an 1.859 OPS he was only older than Adrian Marin.

Manny would be the youngest Bowie Baysox. By almost two years.

Manny is about four years younger than any Norfolk position player.

Manny would be of average age in the Sally League.

There are several players on the Dominican Summer League O's, the lowest rung of the affiliated ladder, older than Manny Machado.

Good information, we should move him from #2 in the order to #4.

[weams]

Good information, we should move him from #2 in the order to #4.

It is good information. You should have left it at that.