Counting Chickens

[LA2]

Delmon is 5 for 16 with a bomb and double lifetime against Price (no walks).

[El Gordo]

I'd feel better about this if your instincts hadn't been wrong so many times this season (usually, predicting doom and gloom).

So in spite of the fact that what I am saying makes sense to you, you have doubts because I am the one saying it. Can't the logic just stand on it's own. This is a consistent team. It doesn't win more than 3-4 in a row very often, and it doesn't lose 3 in a row often. So it is likely they won't lose the next 3 in a row.

[Frobby]

So in spite of the fact that what I am saying makes sense to you, you have doubts because I am the one saying it. Can't the logic just stand on it's own. This is a consistent team. It doesn't win more than 3-4 in a row very often, and it doesn't lose 3 in a row often. So it is likely they won't lose the next 3 in a row.

I like the logic. I just worry when it comes from you. I can't forget all those posts about how the Yankees were likely to eat our lunch down the stretch.

[BarclaySouthway]

Cruz: 28 AB .357/.400/.714 3 HR

Team OPS vs. Price: .742

Everybody knows we hit Price OK. We match up better with him than with tomorrow's starter. And nobody wants to see Game 5 (except for maybe a few scattered selfish types with tickets). We need to end this today!

Jump on them early, take the crowd out of it, and then just do what we do.

I'll be interested to see if Price tries to get us to chase early in the count. He's watched all the free swinging last 2 games.

[LA2]

So in spite of the fact that what I am saying makes sense to you, you have doubts because I am the one saying it. Can't the logic just stand on it's own. This is a consistent team. It doesn't win more than 3-4 in a row very often, and it doesn't lose 3 in a row often. So it is likely they won't lose the next 3 in a row.

But it's not logical--your argument is not how probability works over such a small sample size. The fact that the O's have lost 3 games in a row four times this season (including losing four games twice) is one way of demonstrating that. Add to that the number of times the O's have lost three out of four and the logic becomes even weaker. We've had both good and bad changes to the team since those streaks and I think it's likely that we win the series, but still.

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles have never swept in an ALDS. Won in 4 vs Sea (97) and Cle (96) and lost in 5 to NYY (12)</p>— Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="

">October 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

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[Palmoripken]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles have never swept in an ALDS. Won in 4 vs Sea (97) and Cle (96) and lost in 5 to NYY (12)</p>? Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="

">October 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

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First for everything let's hope.

[InsideCoroner]

I'll be interested to see if Price tries to get us to chase early in the count. He's watched all the free swinging last 2 games.

Price is a very observant pitcher. Then again, most pitchers know exactly how to pitch to this team and how to shut most of our hitters down. The problem is executing it flawlessly. Everybody makes mistakes. And as numerous opposing managers have pointed out this year, this Orioles team absolutely murders mistakes.

[OFFNY]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles have never swept in an ALDS. Won in 4 vs Sea (97) and Cle (96) and lost in 5 to NYY (12)</p>? Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="

">October 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

First for everything, let's hope.

Yeah, and also, it's not a large sample size.

The Orioles have only played in 3 previous A.L.D.S., and of those, they have only won 2 of them.

I want the sweep ...... not so much for the sake of saying that the Orioles swept a series, but rather to ease my own anxiety about advancing closer to winning the pennant. And obviously, the quickest way to do that would be for the Orioles to close it out today.

[mrbig1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles have never swept in an ALDS. Won in 4 vs Sea (97) and Cle (96) and lost in 5 to NYY (12)</p>— Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="

">October 5, 2014</a></blockquote>

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That just means the odds are on our side.

[Malike]

I remember that.

That was the A.L.C.S., though.

The A.L.D.S. didn't exist back then.

You're right, thanks. I must have read it wrong. I knew it said they came back from 0-2 deficits before, I thought he said ALDS. In any event, as you know, we don't count chickens, ever.

[scOtt]

Kentucky Fried Chickens?

We shoulda got the live chicken!

[Malike]

Cruz: 28 AB .357/.400/.714 3 HR

Team OPS vs. Price: .742

Everybody knows we hit Price OK. We match up better with him than with tomorrow's starter. And nobody wants to see Game 5 (except for maybe a few scattered selfish types with tickets). We need to end this today!

Jump on them early, take the crowd out of it, and then just do what we do.

I'll be interested to see if Price tries to get us to chase early in the count. He's watched all the free swinging last 2 games.

He's on record saying as much. He thinks he has the plan to handle the O's bats.

[scOtt]

We got this.

[Malike]

We got this.

They are going to get to Bud. We just have to get to Price.