Why did Dan sign Ubaldo?

[srock]

Over the previous six seasons Ubaldo had been worth 22 fWAR and change. Averaged about over three wins per season, with peak performances that were on par with some of the better pitchers in the league. Had only had one truly off year since 2007. Seemed like a very good bet to be somewhere between an average-ish pitcher at 2+ WAR and some chance of being a real top-of-the-rotation starter worth 5+ WAR. His contract was 4/50, paying him for roughly two wins per year (or, a number he exceeded in five of the previous six years - at least in fWAR terms. RA-based WAR formulations would be a bit less optimistic). It hasn't worked out so far, but it was a pretty reasonable deal from my perspective[

And no injury history

If I have a problem with his signing (and I really don't) it would be a general concern about signing anyone over 26 (about) to a 5 year high dollar deal: Most long term free agent contracts don't work out well.

Nothing to do with Ubaldo; committing to any player is a risky endeavor.

[Aristotelian]

Baseball is a crapshoot. Dan took a risk and (so far) it didn't pay off. Honestly $12M is not that much for a decent pitcher. His 4.81 ERA was not even that bad. Of SP with >80 IP, he is only two spots behind Verlander (4.54). There are 9 guys in the AL who were worse. The guy at the bottom of the list, Justin Masterson, had a 5.88 ERA and just signed a contract with the Red Sox for $9.5M.

[mdbdotcom]

Had to do it. Lost a bet on Pinterest.

[webbrick2010]

Ubaldo will have a good year this year.

He wasn't that bad last year, allowed the O's to ease Gausman into the rotation and keep his innings down.

For the months of May/Jun when the staff was really struggling he posted a 3.42 ERA with a .660 OPS against. Then he got injured and lost his rotation spot

He will be a valuable nugget this year.

[AlbionHero]

Its amazing what a year can do to change peoples perspective. Last year we all wanted the O's to spend big money on someone... anyone!

[MikeAD]

I was absolutely livid when we signed Jimenez, especially considering what we paid. To me the money was essentially the same and Santana wouldn't have been a long-term deal going into last season. Instead we are tied to Ubaldo until the end of the 2017 season and we will be giving him about what Santana is getting from Minnesota. I still hope Jiminez puts it together, of course, but as of now we are paying him the 2nd most of any player on our team and he has yet to contribute, especially when you factor in the money.

[DrungoHazewood]

And no injury history

If I have a problem with his signing (and I really don't) it would be a general concern about signing anyone over 26 (about) to a 5 year high dollar deal: Most long term free agent contracts don't work out well.

Nothing to do with Ubaldo; committing to any player is a risky endeavor.

Sure, all long-term deals are risks. The higher the dollar value the higher the risk. Pitchers in particular are very inconsistent, more likely to catastrophically fail. Which is why I'm fine with a strategy of only signing free agents that fit your particular niche, in need and dollars and risk assessment. I do not want the Orioles, as currently funded, to ever adopt a philosophy of being major players in free agency on a regular basis.

[Tx Oriole]

I was absolutely livid when we signed Jimenez, especially considering what we paid. To me the money was essentially the same and Santana wouldn't have been a long-term deal going into last season. Instead we are tied to Ubaldo until the end of the 2017 season and we will be giving him about what Santana is getting from Minnesota. I still hope Jiminez puts it together, of course, but as of now we are paying him the 2nd most of any player on our team and he has yet to contribute, especially when you factor in the money.

It's easy to second guess Dan. Hope Jimenez turns it around this coming season. I think he will.

[DrungoHazewood]

I was absolutely livid when we signed Jimenez, especially considering what we paid. To me the money was essentially the same and Santana wouldn't have been a long-term deal going into last season. Instead we are tied to Ubaldo until the end of the 2017 season and we will be giving him about what Santana is getting from Minnesota. I still hope Jiminez puts it together, of course, but as of now we are paying him the 2nd most of any player on our team and he has yet to contribute, especially when you factor in the money.

But you have to put "highest paid player on the team" into context. Jimenez is being paid to produce eight wins over four years. Even if he's a total loss, and he gives the O's a win or two, they're $40M in the hole over four years. That's not nothing, but it's pretty small change in the free agent market. People clamored for Fielder or Teixiera who might end up being $100M underwater on their deals. Pujols could be more than that, and essentially valueless for five years or more; combined with Hamilton the Angles are out nearly an entire Ubaldo deal annually. If your team's catastrophes in free agency are a Brian Roberts or a worst-case Ubaldo once every six or eight years you're doing ok.

[MdSooner]

I don't know about you Oriole fans but I don't understand why Dan signed Ubaldo. While Dan has been with the Orioles he has not even considered signing high priced over rated guys like Ubaldo. Dan is the master at low cost savy under the radar moves. I am seriously wondering if Dan was drunk or held at gun point when he signed Ubaldo. He just does not make stupid decisions like this. It really ticks me off that the Orioles might have to trade a good pitcher like Norris or Chen to make room for a terrible pitcher like Ubaldo. Why did you sign him Dan? Why? It makes no sense. Can you explain Oriole fans?

In hindsight it was a bad choice. But he had a great upside. Hopefully, he makes good on his contract. I do not think he is abad guy

[Guest]

At the time the Orioles needed a SP and it was a good deal. 4 for 50m is the going market for a SP so we really can't get to mad at Dan.

[MASNPalmer]

He's due roughly $13 mln a year the next 3 years. That's really not a *bad* contract in today's context, and basically pays him to be a league average pitcher. Look at some of the other contracts that were signed between this year and next year:

Ricky Nolasco 4 yrs $49 mln - dude put up a 5.38 ERA last year

Scott Feldman 3 yrs $30 mln - has a lights out April and September, but from May to August had an ERA north of 5.00.

Ervin Santana 4 yrs $54 mln - had an ERA close to 4.00 in the NL last year

Brandon McCarthy 4 yrs $48 mln - has a career ERA north of 4.00.

The list goes on and on. Ubaldo is getting paid to be league average, like the above guys listed, but he's also one of few with the upside to pitch like an ace and completely dominate for months at a time. It's not a bad gamble in today's landscape.

[Guest rochester]

On a different thought, the way he publicly handled his "demotion" and exclusion from the ALCS makes me support and cheer for him either way. I find that DD and Buck look for people that have that class.

[AdamK]

While it might be nice to not have Ubaldo's contact, each year the FA deals seem shocking. And for a pitcher, at least we aren't gambling with something that's twice as much.

We can get value with UJ, and I am happy to allow Wallace and Chiti to tinker with the mechanics while Buck tinkers with his head.

Signing that big deal for him was not what his psyche needed, IMO, despite hearing him day all the right things. The more distance he gets from that moment, the better he will be mentally and the more relaxed he'll be on the mound.

[Can_of_corn]

Because:

1. The consensus was that we needed a starter going into last season.

2. Jimenez and Ervin Santana were more or less considered to be valued similar.

3. Ubaldo took the deal.

It was the exact same consideration between Cruz and Morales. Two guys for one job. Get what Dan considered to be the best deal, sign it and move on. That's what he did.

This. I also think he would have preferred to get Burnett on a two year deal.