My O's glass is half empty again.

[El Gordo]

And, as I wrote before, House may not be nearly as poor defensively as he looked during the week that I saw him. However, I hope nobody doubts that he looked really poor for that week. I watched House, Bako, Hernandez, and Donachie very closely through infield practice, warming up pitchers, and during the games.

The ratings went like this:

Arm Strength (best to worst)

Hernandez, Bako (very close second to Ramon surprisingly), Donachie, House (distant 4th)

Arm Accuracy (best to worst)

Hernandez, Bako, Donachie & House (tie and not in a good way)

Quickness of Release (best to worst)

Hernandez, Donachie, Bako & House (appeared about the same, nobody was slow here)

Framing (remember I watched them warm up guys in the BP a lot)

Hernandez and Bako were nearly flawless, Donachie good, House struggled badly (I saw him drop/deflect more than 10 pitches that didn't even hit the ground)

Blocking of pitches in the dirt/movement behind the plate

Hernandez (outstanding), Bako and Donachie (very good), House (quite poor technique)

While I didn't get to see many Oriole players in BP because of the stupid stadium rules and the way the schedule was laid out, I did see Bako twice and Donachie once for a bit in BP. Bako definitely has almost no power. He makes fairly solid contact but just doesn't have a lot of bat speed so there are a lot of routine grounders. Donachie appeared to have some power and a quicker stroke in the 8-10 swings I got to see.

Maybe House's arm was sore or he wasn't trying real hard (though that doesn't make a lot of sense) or [insert random other explanation] so he is much better than what I saw, but I didn't imagine what I saw from him. I wouldn't want him catching me based on what I saw while I was there.

Vatech, great scouting report. Much appreciated. Thanks.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, but it's one thing to be a backup whose defensive skills are good and weak offensively and its another thing to be a defensive catcher who is just abysmal with the bat.

Maybe we should give Charlie O'Brien a call, see what he's up to. He fits the mold of what the O's like to do with FA pickups.

Probably the best back up type C available after Leiberthal was Todd Green with a .763 OPS last year. But in the 100 or so AB he's going to get with the O's there's no guarantee he won't put up .650. We are talking about 100 AB. Get over it.

[square634]

Ok, I attempted to run the numbers by doing a Z-test for statistical significance. I took each of Gibbons' 12 at-bats against Santana and found the mean OPS (1.4166) and standard deviation (1.6765). I assumed that Gibbons' true OPS against Santana should be .721, which is his career OPS against LHP. This means that over many at-bats, with luck taken out of the equation, his OPS against Santana should be .721. Granted, this is not a very good assumption, because Santana is better than the average LHP, but I wasn't sure what better alternative I could use.

With these assumptions in mind, the Z-score is (1.4166-.721)/1.4166, which comes out to 1.437. The probability of having a Z-score greater than 1.437 is about 7.53%. This means that there is only a 7.53% chance that Gibbons' high OPS against Santana is due to random luck. Therefore, in this case it is a reasonable conclusion that Gibbons is probably better against Santana than he is against most other LHP, especially considering that the estimate of .721 OPS is probably high. However, this does not mean that Gibbons should be expected to post numbers well above a .721 OPS over a number of at-bats.

Although in this case it appears that Gibbons is probably just good against Santana, I would still argue that he is not likely to put up numbers above a .775 OPS against him over the long-term. Granted, that is still pretty good against Santana, but we must also remember that there is a 7.53% chance that these numbers were due to luck. So if we take about 12-13 players, chances are that one of them has a fluke similar to Gibbons'. In most cases, if not this specific example, I think individual matchups are somewhat overused.

This is a obviously a numerical approach to what may be a human problem, and it is a very basic test that might have some problems with the assumptions I made. Those of you with a background in math or statistics, feel free to let me know if I did something wrong.

[square634]

But in the 100 or so AB he's going to get with the O's there's no guarantee he won't put up .650.

Exactly. I hate to take this comment out of context, but this is precisely the argument against using individual matchups. And you are talking about 100 AB which is about 8 times as many as Gibbons and Payton have against Santana.

[Tony-OH]

And, as I wrote before, House may not be nearly as poor defensively as he looked during the week that I saw him. However, I hope nobody doubts that he looked really poor for that week. I watched House, Bako, Hernandez, and Donachie very closely through infield practice, warming up pitchers, and during the games.

The ratings went like this:

Arm Strength (best to worst)

Hernandez, Bako (very close second to Ramon surprisingly), Donachie, House (distant 4th)

Arm Accuracy (best to worst)

Hernandez, Bako, Donachie & House (tie and not in a good way)

Quickness of Release (best to worst)

Hernandez, Donachie, Bako & House (appeared about the same, nobody was slow here)

Framing (remember I watched them warm up guys in the BP a lot)

Hernandez and Bako were nearly flawless, Donachie good, House struggled badly (I saw him drop/deflect more than 10 pitches that didn't even hit the ground)

Blocking of pitches in the dirt/movement behind the plate

Hernandez (outstanding), Bako and Donachie (very good), House (quite poor technique)

While I didn't get to see many Oriole players in BP because of the stupid stadium rules and the way the schedule was laid out, I did see Bako twice and Donachie once for a bit in BP. Bako definitely has almost no power. He makes fairly solid contact but just doesn't have a lot of bat speed so there are a lot of routine grounders. Donachie appeared to have some power and a quicker stroke in the 8-10 swings I got to see.

Maybe House's arm was sore or he wasn't trying real hard (though that doesn't make a lot of sense) or [insert random other explanation] so he is much better than what I saw, but I didn't imagine what I saw from him. I wouldn't want him catching me based on what I saw while I was there.

Very nice description, thanks.

[HoodGuy007]

CERA is about as reliable as meth addict.

TOO SOON!

[TonySoprano]

How many games do we lose before this stuff "takes care of itself?"

The problem is this is the same trend we've seen year after year from the Orioles. We have a bunch of guys who are redundant to each other but no real strength in an area that can be useful like hitting well against lefties.

I'm a big supporter of the platoon for several reasons. One, it enables the manager to use player's strengths while minimizing their exposure to what they don't do well. Platoon's also give the manager a stronger bench.

It should not have been hard to fill the left-fielder's job with a decent defensive outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching. Instead, it looks like the O's are going to give Payton the majority of the starts out there.

Payton should be getting 250-300 at bats spelling the left fielder and PAtterson in center against lefties.

If the Orioles decide Millar is going to play 1B because he's the best defensively (which should tell you a lot about our defensive 1st baseman), then Gibbons is going to the bench. Realistically, he should be in Right Field with Markakis in left since left is much harder to play in Camden Yards.

We know Nick won't be moved by Perlozzo, so they'll throw Payton out there in left and take his .750 OPS. And to top it off, we'll be told we're upgraded in left because Perlozzo managed to overexpose Fahey out there last year for most of the at bats in the second half of the year. They'll be right, but we'll still have below average production in left field and 1st base, two of the easiest postiion to find production from in major league baseball.

You're on a roll. I just hit you with some pos. rep on another post, so I'll to give you an IOU for this one until I spread some more around.

[NewMarketSean]

VaTech THANK YOU.

Bako is a defensive sub. He is not there to hit. Hell Duquette has even admitted that. He was there to be a solid defensive replacement, call a good game and work with the young pitching in a system he already knows.

His bat sucks, we get it guys. But Bako obviously has the defensive skills to be the sub we are looking for. If Bako had a bat, he would be a starter, not a back up.

There is a reason why no one considers House a catcher anymore.

If you want to give away an out in an already suspect line-up that is projected to score 750 runs once or twice a week, then that is fine with me. Just don't be surprised when #10 is in the books.

[Sports Guy]

VaTech THANK YOU.

Bako is a defensive sub. He is not there to hit. Hell Duquette has even admitted that. He was there to be a solid defensive replacement, call a good game and work with the young pitching in a system he already knows.

His bat sucks, we get it guys. But Bako obviously has the defensive skills to be the sub we are looking for. If Bako had a bat, he would be a starter, not a back up.

There is a reason why no one considers House a catcher anymore.

Why is that obvious? Because Duquette said so?

Statistically speaking, Bako is average or slightly below.

Now, i do agree that you can't always measure a catcher's defensive value this way but stats tell you he isn't that great of a backup and, on top of that, i have yet to read quotes from pitchers(other than maybe Maddux) who have talekd about how wonderful it is to throw to Bako and how he calls such a great game.

[DrungoHazewood]

His bat sucks, we get it guys. But Bako obviously has the defensive skills to be the sub we are looking for. If Bako had a bat, he would be a starter, not a back up.

Here's the problem with this argument: not all sucks is the same. Bako's weighted mean PECOTA is for a .533 OPS. That's not just bad, that's "I'm a pitcher, and I haven't taken batting practice for 11 years" bad.

PECOTA rated 125 or so catchers. Bako is about 118th in offensive value. His marginal lineup value (i.e. his daily impact on an average lineup) is -0.4. Ramon Hernandez' is about zero (meaning he's an average MLB hitter). So if the O's score 5.00 runs a game with Hernandez, they score 4.6 with Bako.

If Bako had Toby Hall's bat he'd be a nice backup. If he had Jose Molina's, or Kelly Stinnett's, or Todd Pratt's bat he'd be a nice backup. They have a marginal lineup value of about -0.2 or so. But instead he has about the same projection as Brandon Snyder, who is a injured 20-year-old kid in the Sally League.

They had (and have) other options. Donachie and Whiteside both have very good defensive reputations and have projected OPSes 100 points higher.

[El Gordo]

Here's the problem with this argument: not all sucks is the same. Bako's weighted mean PECOTA is for a .533 OPS. That's not just bad, that's "I'm a pitcher, and I haven't taken batting practice for 11 years" bad.

PECOTA rated 125 or so catchers. Bako is about 118th in offensive value. His marginal lineup value (i.e. his daily impact on an average lineup) is -0.4. Ramon Hernandez' is about zero (meaning he's an average MLB hitter). So if the O's score 5.00 runs a game with Hernandez, they score 4.6 with Bako.

If Bako had Toby Hall's bat he'd be a nice backup. If he had Jose Molina's, or Kelly Stinnett's, or Todd Pratt's bat he'd be a nice backup. They have a marginal lineup value of about -0.2 or so. But instead he has about the same projection as Brandon Snyder, who is a injured 20-year-old kid in the Sally League.

They had (and have) other options. Donachie and Whiteside both have very good defensive reputations and have projected OPSes 100 points higher.

What effect on runs allowed would a poor defensive C like House have per game?

[DrungoHazewood]

What effect on runs allowed would a poor defensive C like House have per game?

Of course that's harder to nail down, but Clay Davenport's system has the best catchers in the league worth about +10 runs over 130 or so games, and the worst around -10. So let's assume House is the worst catcher in the majors, and Hernandez the best. That would be about 0.15 runs/game.

[NewMarketSean]

Can't help it but my O's glass is even more empty now... I'm still looking forward to the season though.

[olehippi]

Can't help it but my O's glass is even more empty now... I'm still looking forward to the season though.

Prozac....and water from the kitchen faucet....works to keep the glass mostly full....or atleast makes you not care when it's almost empty. And of course, a shot ot two of Jack Daniels doesn't hurt either....

[NewMarketSean]

Bump this thread. I am getting back to my old NMS self. It'll be a miracle if this trade is ever completed and I'll be amazed if the team is able to trade Bedard AND Roberts.

I have little faith in this team right now. I think it's going to be the same old, same old.