Orioles trade Davies for Parra. Your verdict?

[LookitsPuck]

Is it? It's early, yes, but as I said earlier, there isn't all that much of the season left. He's been bad and even if he hits .800 the rest of the season, which isn't likely, he'll still end the season at around .750. And that's pretty optimistic.

You may be right that it's too early. But it's definitely not "way" too early.

I think he's been robbed at least 3 times of a double. One was definitely yesterday. He's doing a good job spraying the ball. He'll turn it around.

[ChuckS]

I think Parra has looked good at the plate and in the field. He's hit several balls very hard that have been right at defenders. I think his production the rest of the way will be somewhere in between his career averages and what's he's done up to this poin this season.

[Bmorebirds24]

Here's the thing.....

DD certaintly isn't a bad GM. He also isn't the savior many make him out to be on here either. Buck should get 75% of the credit for any turnaround IMO.

Edit: what DD does well, maybe better than most anywhere, is find "nuggets" for a fraction of the cost and provide our organization with depth-that he deserves great credit for

The problem is-do we really know what Angelos allows and doesn't? What does he meddle in and doesn't? Did he say no to a 4th year of Cruz? Who knows....

This ownership group will always make it difficult to actually evaluate player personnel moves.

He is definitely on a losing streak right now though....and trading another prospect for a rental made zero sense.

I agree and the wild card here, like you stated is what will PA allow and not allow spending wise.

I was ok letting them guys walk but I wasn't ok with the way the entire off season went.

For me its obvious no GM has the free reigns to spend here so then your focus should be the farm system. Problem here is that the farm system is crap at this point and things I've read is that we didn't hit the ball out the park in the past draft and reached for the guys we drafted.

I don't think DD is a bad GM but I have to wonder is he right for the Orioles. Player development seems to be extremely poor along with the way we draft and fill our farm system. We were bad for how many years and had top 10 picks how many years and we have landed 1 super star and that's Manny.

I think the way they handled Gausman was an absolute joke and Glad he's finally getting his shot at the rotation and staying full time. Go. Me the questions I would ask at the end of this season are

1. Is DD the right man for the job?

2. How can we build this farm system with talent that will make an impact on the majors for the Orioles?

3. How can the player development get better and help start producing productive Major League Baseball players?

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[Il BuonO]

BABIP is a powerful thing.

[Bmorebirds24]

In the last 3 years, we've produced Gausman, Machado, Schoop, Joseph, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Wright, Wilson, and Givens have contributed. Our top two guys are injured. It's not quite that bleak a picture. We've trade some guys who will be top 20 or top 10 in their respective systems in Davies, Brault, and Tarpley. Mancini is tearing up AA and is a legitimate candidate for next year's team. Alvarez and Walker are close but bigger question marks.

Hopefully the minor moves for Joe Gunkel, Ariel Miranda, and Chris Lee will replace the pitchers we traded.

Our lower minors have some intriguing power arms in Tanner Scott, Lazaro Leyva, and Ofelky Peralta. We have Chance Sisco and Jomar Reyes as top ten prospects age 20 and 18 respectively. This year's GCL team is probably the best and youngest I can ever remember. Things aren't great but they aren't as awful as some think either.

Yet we are still at the bottom of the rankings in farm systems. I like your glass half full approach but we don't produce a well as we should.

I like Machado, Schoop and iffy on Jospeh. E-rod funny you mention him we traded him to a division rival for an arm that we used about 20 some times. We always bark about team control well there goes 6 years of it for 20 some appearances and didn't even try to bring back Miller instead we watch him dart for NY.

Same with Parra I like the pick up and loved his approach at the plate and how nice was that 13 pitch AB last night? Problem is he's another rental for about 60 games and another pitching prospect gone. If we sign him to an extension then it softens the blow but if we don't it's just another loss and no title.

And you seem to love the talent we have in the minors why weren't we able to bring in more impact players like Upton, or Gomez hell maybe even Price? We all know Parra wasn't gonna be that one piece to put us in running for AL champs.

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[Rene88]

In the last 3 years, we've produced Gausman, Machado, Schoop, Joseph, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Wright, Wilson, and Givens have contributed. Our top two guys are injured. It's not quite that bleak a picture. We've trade some guys who will be top 20 or top 10 in their respective systems in Davies, Brault, and Tarpley. Mancini is tearing up AA and is a legitimate candidate for next year's team. Alvarez and Walker are close but bigger question marks.

Hopefully the minor moves for Joe Gunkel, Ariel Miranda, and Chris Lee will replace the pitchers we traded.

Our lower minors have some intriguing power arms in Tanner Scott, Lazaro Leyva, and Ofelky Peralta. We have Chance Sisco and Jomar Reyes as top ten prospects age 20 and 18 respectively. This year's GCL team is probably the best and youngest I can ever remember. Things aren't great but they aren't as awful as some think either.

Good post. Needed some optimism.

This list ranked us #29 BEFORE trading Davies and injuries to Bundy and Harvey however, gulp.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2015-organization-talent-rankings/

[Scrat1]

9 games for a position player is ALWAYS way too early. Let's not go nuts on how good he would have to be to get to a .750 OPS. There are 51 games left and he has played in 9 games. In order to finish at .750 at the same rate he has been playing, he would need to OPS .779. Hell, if he led off tonight's game with a home run his OPS would jump from .584 to .696. The eyeball test isn't great but I think it has as much if not more value than 41 plate appearances worth of stats.

1/6 is not that small of a sample. Obviously those nine games mean absolutely nothing in terms of the type of player Parra is, but they do matter in the sense that the already very thin marginal gain from Snider to Parra is that much thinner. Parra is pretty clearly a better player than Snider, but he's not so much better that he's guaranteed to outplay Snider over the course of two months. In fact, there is a chance that Snider would outplay Parra, even if Parra is the better player.

I'm pulling these numbers out of my netherregions, but let's just say 75/25 that Parra outplays Snider to Snider outplays Parra over the period of two months. That's probably pretty generous to Parra, but whatever. Now, what about the odds that they play similar enough to eachother that there is no effect on the Orioles win/loss record. I'd put that at at least 40%, considering how close their career numbers are. That leaves only 35% chance that Parra makes any sort of difference. That's a pretty narrow margin, a margin we paid Davies for, and with 1/6 of his games already played for the Orioles, that margin has become even more narrow. We can quibble about all of those percentages--obviously they are not dead on--but I'm just using them to roughly illustrate how those 9 games of terrible numbers do matter in terms of the odds that Parra showing he was an improvement over Snider, let alone enough of an improvement to make any difference/justify the cost of Davies.

[weams]

I agree and the wild card here, like you stated is what will PA allow and not allow spending wise.

I was ok letting them guys walk but I wasn't ok with the way the entire off season went.

For me its obvious no GM has the free reigns to spend here so then your focus should be the farm system. Problem here is that the farm system is crap at this point and things I've read is that we didn't hit the ball out the park in the past draft and reached for the guys we drafted.

I don't think DD is a bad GM but I have to wonder is he right for the Orioles. Player development seems to be extremely poor along with the way we draft and fill our farm system. We were bad for how many years and had top 10 picks how many years and we have landed 1 super star and that's Manny.

I think the way they handled Gausman was an absolute joke and Glad he's finally getting his shot at the rotation and staying full time. Go. Me the questions I would ask at the end of this season are

1. Is DD the right man for the job?

2. How can we build this farm system with talent that will make an impact on the majors for the Orioles?

3. How can the player development get better and help start producing productive Major League Baseball players?

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No Other GM has brought even a .500 in the last two decades.

[Bmorebirds24]

No Other GM has brought even a .500 in the last two decades.

Right. But this team was put together pretty well by McPhail and wasn't he the one to hire Buck? I think a lot of credit belongs to him.

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[Can_of_corn]

Right. But this team was put together pretty well by McPhail and wasn't he the one to hire Buck? I think a lot of credit belongs to him.

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Wasn't Andy a Wedge man?

[Bmorebirds24]

Wasn't Andy a Wedge man?

Idk, was he?

He did Bring Jones here, Davis, Machado, Weiters and Hardy here. Tillman too! That's just off the top of my head and the core of the team.

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[weams]

Right. But this team was put together pretty well by McPhail and wasn't he the one to hire Buck? I think a lot of credit belongs to him.

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He was the one that tried to hire Eric Wedge. Peter Angelos hired Buck.

[weams]

Idk, was he?

He did Bring Jones here, Davis, Machado, Weiters and Hardy here. Tillman too! That's just off the top of my head and the core of the team.

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Andy wanted Eric Wedge. Mike Flanagan gave Andy the losing team with some good assets to trade off to bring that core in.

[Bmorebirds24]

He was the one that tried to hire Eric Wedge. Peter Angelos hired Buck.

Ok I don't remember that but I believe you guys. Anyhow he did bring some good talent to the team that went on to win the wild card in 2012.

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[Ruzious]

BABIP is a powerful thing.

Yeah, it might be the most useful of the modern stats.