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Who would you rather? Hayward or Davis


connja

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Assume they go for the same contract terms. Who would you rather have...the 26 year old outfielder who has yet to break into his prime, or bring back the fan favorite who has led baseball in homers 2 of the last 3 years, but a bit older and prone for awful years like 2014.

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Assume they go for the same contract terms. Who would you rather have...the 26 year old outfielder who has yet to break into his prime, or bring back the fan favorite who has led baseball in homers 2 of the last 3 years, but a bit older and prone for awful years like 2014.

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he had one bad year for the Orioles, yet, that bad year, was 26 HR and 72 RBIs.

This does not make him "prone" for more awful years.

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We should be offering Heyward a solid 8-10 year deal with an opt-out after 3 or 4 years.

Something like 3/50 + 5/120. He gets his guaranteed money but he'd still have an opportunity to test free agency again at age 29-30 for another 6-7 year deal.

Paying him $16-17M /yr allows us to have two top gold glove outfielders for a reasonable price through 2019 which should bridge us to the post-machado era - since it's looking less and less likely we'll come up with any way to extend him.

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We should be offering Heyward a solid 8-10 year deal with an opt-out after 3 or 4 years.

Something like 3/50 + 5/120. He gets his guaranteed money but he'd still have an opportunity to test free agency again at age 29-30 for another 6-7 year deal.

Paying him $16-17M /yr allows us to have two top gold glove outfielders for a reasonable price through 2019 which should bridge us to the post-machado era - since it's looking less and less likely we'll come up with any way to extend him.

I like the idea but you are light on the numbers. Maybe 3/63 gets it done on the front end...it might not.

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Call me crazy but I'm not paying 20 million dollars a year long term to a guy who has shown power once in his career and never again. We are to assume at 26 that his will peak and he will show that but you are paying for potential not production and that is always very very dangerous. I'm not saying that Davis is the answer either with his high strikeout percentage but I'd be very wary of committing a long term deal to a guy that was a top prospect but has never fulfilled potential aside from very strong outfield defense.

This is a very good article on Heyward and Gordon (who I prefer to both guys actually).

http://triplebbaseball.mlblogs.com/2015/09/16/alex-gordon-and-jason-heyward-defying-war-this-offseason/

"Throughout writing this article, I actually came to the conclusion that I would rather have Alex Gordon than Jason Heyward, but that’s not what the article was about. The article was about how both are overvalued by the sabermetric community. I think Heyward gets around $140MM, and Gordon settles in at about $120MM. Both players have had the illusion of value created around them, but there’s not concrete evidence it actually exists. Teams do value defense and admire players like Heyward. But they also need to put a winning team on the field, and it needs concrete evidence to feel confident in investing in players. If Heyward and Gordon played a premium defensive position like centerfield, this is probably a completely different conversation. The market values defense. But it also values being smart enough to recognize relativity and when it needs to be applied."

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Even if Davis got a 6/140 type of contract and Heyward got a 10/200 I would still prefer Heyward. Heyward has many years of good baseball ahead of him. Davis I'd say maybe the next 2 or 3 before he becomes a liability.

I want to say Heyward. And I love Heyward... But opt out contracts are such a huge disadvantage for the team. 10/200 with an opt out in 3 years has a lot of downside with very little upside. If Heyward suddenly becomes Markakis with better defense, then the next 5-6 years would be a little rough and the last 3-4 years would be brutal.

If he continues to perform and some of the power we saw early on returns, then he opts out and goes to the MFY. No chance for us to win. We either get market value or lose.

If 10/200 is his value, then he has to come down to get that opt out...maybe 9/170?

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Assume they go for the same contract terms. Who would you rather have...the 26 year old outfielder who has yet to break into his prime, or bring back the fan favorite who has led baseball in homers 2 of the last 3 years, but a bit older and prone for awful years like 2014.

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Pretty sure we asked this once before. Should be a poll. I say Heyward again.
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I want to say Heyward. And I love Heyward... But opt out contracts are such a huge disadvantage for the team. 10/200 with an opt out in 3 years has a lot of downside with very little upside. If Heyward suddenly becomes Markakis with better defense, then the next 5-6 years would be a little rough and the last 3-4 years would be brutal.

If he continues to perform and some of the power we saw early on returns, then he opts out and goes to the MFY. No chance for us to win. We either get market value or lose.

If 10/200 is his value, then he has to come down to get that opt out...maybe 9/170?

I don't know if this is logical thinking but I'd still do the 10/200 with an opt out after 4 years or so. The reason I say that is in four years Jones' contract runs out, Machado will likely be gone, Showalter will probably stop after his contract ends. I think now is the time to go all in and if Heyward opts out after four years then so be it, I think our competitiveness will have decreased.

Unless of course DJ Stewart and Hunter Harvey happen to work out but my doubts of an Orioles farm system producing any stars are pretty high.

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