Who would you rather? Hayward or Davis

[DrungoHazewood]

He is absolutely worth 20 million a year for seven years. absolutely. I would not give it to him because of the pick. But he is worth it.

You wouldn't sign a guy to a 8/160 deal because they'd lose a pick that's valued at something like $5-10M and whose value could be recouped in other ways like international signings? You're not signing a guy who reasonably could be worth 25-40 wins over his deal because you're afraid of losing an asset that is most likely going to be worth 1-2 wins while under Orioles control.

[weams]

You wouldn't sign a guy to a 8/160 deal because they'd lose a pick that's valued at something like $5-10M and whose value could be recouped in other ways like international signings? You're not signing a guy who reasonably could be worth 25-40 wins over his deal because you're afraid of losing an asset that is most likely going to be worth 1-2 wins while under Orioles control.

I'd sign a different guy that did not cost the pick which could be as high as 11. Because it's not like the Orioles would sign two guys making 20 million a year.

[weams]

You wouldn't sign a guy to a 8/160 deal because they'd lose a pick that's valued at something like $5-10M and whose value could be recouped in other ways like international signings? You're not signing a guy who reasonably could be worth 25-40 wins over his deal because you're afraid of losing an asset that is most likely going to be worth 1-2 wins while under Orioles control.

And I don't believe that he will have that excess value. Or sign for that deal. I believe that he will have an opt out. And if he is good, you don't get his years that would possibly be excess. Lose, lose on him.

[Ruzious]

You gotta take Hayward, imo. I still think he'll improve with the bat - perhaps significantly - and he's absurdly good in RF. Yes, I hate giving up the higher pick.

[connja]

He is absolutely worth 20 million a year for seven years. absolutely. I would not give it to him because of the pick. But he is worth it.

Technically you lose a pick if you sign Davis also. So signing Davis or Hayward is no different in terms of how many picks you have next year.

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[weams]

You gotta take Hayward, imo. I still think he'll improve with the bat - perhaps significantly - and he's absurdly good in RF. Yes, I hate giving up the higher pick.

You sure you don't want Crush or Cespedes and the pick?

[Can_of_corn]

Technically you lose a pick if you sign Davis also. So signing Davis or Hayward is no different in terms of how many picks you have next year.

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With Heyward you lose #15, with Davis you lose #30.

More or less.

[pcbothwel]

Heyward:

rWAR/fWAR

6.4/4.7

2.5/1.9

5.8/6.5

3.7/3.4

6.2/5.2

6.2/6.0

Nick

2.5/2.6

4.2/4.1

7.4/6.0

2.9/2.1

2.3/2.4

2.5/1.7

1.7/1.6

.1/-.2

2.0/2.4

1.9/1.6

Now you can not be a fan of WAR but if there is any value at all to either flavor then you can not say that the production of the two players is comparable. Nice has had one very nice and one star level season. Heyward averages more production then Nick 's second best season.

From 23-25 Nick averaged 160 games, 20 HR's, 100 RBI's and slashed 299/372/476 (848)

From 23-25(The last Three years) Heyward averaged 126 games, 12 HR's, 48 RBI's and slashed 264/351/401 (752)

And while Nick never had great range, he had a cannon for an arm and played the RF wall in Camden very well. If you think Heyward will make enough of a difference in RF (Not a premium Defensive position) to make up for double the HR's and RBI's while having an OPS 100 points less then maybe im not as keen on the advanced metrics as I thought...

Perhaps you should compare Davis' stats to Adam Dunn's. They are similar to this point, in fact, Dunn's are significantly better. Why don't you think Davis goes down that same disappointing road? It's at least as valid comparison as Heyward and Markakis.

I have to disagree. Dunn's value was purely as a bat and was an abomination in the field and on the base paths. Davis is a good 1st baseman and an average COF. How many guys can play average Defense can put up the number Davis has. CD has versatility which is highly valuable when you need another bat-only player in the line-up (Paredes) or Inter-league games.

The gap between Davis and Dunn in the field is bigger than the gap between what Markakis and Heyward. Especially when you take into account how Kakes was swinging the bat

[connja]

With Heyward you lose #15, with Davis you lose #30.

More or less.

But the Orioles usually take guys in the first round that are projected for the 3rd round, so doesn't matter :-)

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[Can_of_corn]

From 23-25 Nick averaged 160 games, 20 HR's, 100 RBI's and slashed 299/372/476 (848)

From 23-25(The last Three years) Heyward averaged 126 games, 12 HR's, 48 RBI's and slashed 264/351/401 (752)

And while Nick never had great range, he had a cannon for an arm and played the RF wall in Camden very well. If you think Heyward will make enough of a difference in RF (Not a premium Defensive position) to make up for double the HR's and RBI's while having an OPS 100 points less then maybe im not as keen on the advanced metrics as I thought...

Using counting stats isn't as informative as things such as OPS+ and wRC+ Nick's early years were in an appreciably stronger offensive environment. It is hardly surprising given his health in his early career, and the run scoring environment that he would look good in comparison.

[Can_of_corn]

But the Orioles usually take guys in the first round that are projected for the 3rd round, so doesn't matter :-)

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Just keeping things factually accurate.

Also, pool money.

[weams]

With Heyward you lose #15, with Davis you lose #30.

More or less.

With Heyward you could lose 12.

[weams]

But the Orioles usually take guys in the first round that are projected for the 3rd round, so doesn't matter :-)

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Not since the new pool system took hold.

[weams]

But the Orioles usually take guys in the first round that are projected for the 3rd round, so doesn't matter :-)

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The Orioles were able to punt an entire draft to sign a starter and DH. For one year.

[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles were able to punt an entire draft to sign a starter and DH. For one year.

Then they took a 5th round guy in the 3rd round and an NBA player in the 4th.