Dan's Lap

[DrungoHazewood]

"Really, there's no legitimate stopper," said one National League scout who followed the Orioles this season. "There's no legitimate No. 1 or 2; more 3s, 4s and 5s. Every night they have to go out there and battle when they're facing the opponent's No. 1s and 2s when you're throwing 3s, 4s and 5s."

Baltimore Sun Article.

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So? Didn't you see 2012 and 2014?

[DrungoHazewood]

Our starting pitching was responsible for 70% of our losses and only had a quality start 48% of the time.

I think 63.54% of your numbers are 82.44% made up.

[2010BUCK26]

That stat means nothing and is intended only to be deceiving. Starting pitchers almost always receive the bulk of losses (and wins) for a team. The 2014 Giants, who won the World Series, had 81% of their losses charged to their starting pitchers.

Yes they are more susceptible to losses which is why I think we need that true number one in order to win the series. You need to be able to avoid going 3 times through the rotation and only getting one win.

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[2010BUCK26]

I think 63.54% of your numbers are 82.44% made up.

I used baseball reference advanced pitching statistics.

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[Crazysilver03]

I used baseball reference advanced pitching statistics.

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And you picked one of the least advanced stats possible.

[2010BUCK26]

And you picked one of the least advanced stats possible.

Ok

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[DrungoHazewood]

I used baseball reference advanced pitching statistics.

You mean % of losses assigned to starters? That's rich. Did you account for the loophole that says a starter is eligible for a loss after throwing one pitch, but must record 15 outs before becoming eligible for the win?

[pastorfan]

I completely agree with the premise. There is more supply than demand. When the dust settles there is no reason we cannot end up with one or possibly two of the big bats. If we can't get shutdown starters, then we can at least take the Blue Jays approach of scoring a ton of runs. With our bullpen, this strategy may be our best option.

[Frobby]

Yes they are more susceptible to losses which is why I think we need that true number one in order to win the series. You need to be able to avoid going 3 times through the rotation and only getting one win.

It always helps to have one or more great starting pitchers. I think the Royals proved this year that it's not a necessity -- Cueto certainly did not pitch like a no. 1 for them, but they won anyway.

If you look at our 2014 playoff loss to the Royals, we had two poor starts (lost 8-6 and 6-4) and two good ones (lost 2-1 and 2-1). The hitting and pitching were equally to blame -- if anything, I'd say we didn't hit well enough to win in that series.

[UpstateNYfan]

I think 13 out of 14 in August is close enough to prove the point. And that was after Bud was long gone. Chen is the best pitcher out there now and even if we resign him (which we won't) the rotation is still a mess.

During that horrid stretch the Orioles scored 3 or less runs in every loss and 2 or less in 7 of them. Hard to blame pitching alone for the losses.

[isestrex]

The problem with Dan's lap is that he trusts it too much.

He got a great deal with Cruz in 2014 but remember how thin the OF looked before that? He got lucky.

Then in 2015 he waited for something to fall in his lap and it never did... so we tried the Pu Pu Platter of De Aza, Snider, Young, Lough and friends since his "lap" couldn't snag the last minute super deal he was hoping for.

Now in 2016 we have another bare bones situation and Dan is waiting.

[OFFNY]

I used baseball reference advanced pitching statistics.

You mean % of losses assigned to starters? That's rich. Did you account for the loophole that says a starter is eligible for a loss after throwing one pitch, but must record 15 outs before becoming eligible for the win?

Yes. And along the same lines, a relief pitcher can come into a tie game, pitch 1/3 of an inning, and get credit for the win if his team scores a run and holds that lead.

Felix Hernandez won a Cy Young Award with a record of 13-12 in 2010.

It (wins and Losses credited to pitchers) clearly has nuances beyond its face value.

[DrungoHazewood]

The problem with Dan's lap is that he trusts it too much.

He got a great deal with Cruz in 2014 but remember how thin the OF looked before that? He got lucky.

Then in 2015 he waited for something to fall in his lap and it never did... so we tried the Pu Pu Platter of De Aza, Snider, Young, Lough and friends since his "lap" couldn't snag the last minute super deal he was hoping for.

Now in 2016 we have another bare bones situation and Dan is waiting.

The reason they wait and try to find deals is that the way to sign a bunch of players early on is to set the market with really high bids. It's hard for the 4th-biggest revenue stream in the division to jump out and set the market with a bunch of winning free agency offers. The typical middle class family doesn't buy their cars by wowing people with their opening bid at the Mecum Auto Auctions.

[Ven6]

Now Fangraphs weighing in with a pretty insightful article in favor of giving Gordon only a 3-year contract:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pricing-alex-gordon-on-a-three-year-deal/

It's that time of year--post new year--where prices and contract lengths could shrink.

[sportsfan8703]

The problem with Dan's lap is that he trusts it too much.

He got a great deal with Cruz in 2014 but remember how thin the OF looked before that? He got lucky.

Then in 2015 he waited for something to fall in his lap and it never did... so we tried the Pu Pu Platter of De Aza, Snider, Young, Lough and friends since his "lap" couldn't snag the last minute super deal he was hoping for.

Now in 2016 we have another bare bones situation and Dan is waiting.

To be fair, what the heck happened to De Aza? He looked great after we traded for him. Then played pretty darn good for the sox and dodgers. De Aza should have worked out. Then we wouldn't have had to go through the OF carousel and trade for Parra. From what I saw De Aza had his own agenda in his contract year. He was trying to hit HR's and then was forcing SB's to put up some arbitrary number like 15-15 or 20-20.