Ranking the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st Century

[SteveA]

John Maine and Mike Fontenot both put up 4+ WAR in the majors???   Wow.

[backwardsk]

I’d probably push Mullins up a little over some of the guys who have accumulated more WAR over more seasons (like Givens).

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I’d probably push Mullins up a little over some of the guys who have accumulated more WAR over more seasons (like Givens).

I don’t like to rank guys too highly based on one season.   If he puts up any kind of decent season next year he’ll move way up.   

[Frobby]

Here's my 2022 update to this list.    As a reminder, only players who have debuted in the majors and accumulated at least 1.0 rWAR are eligible.   The rankings take into account performance to date, draft position, and potential future performance, but I don't put too much weight on the latter factor, as I prefer to see the player prove it on the field, especially in the first couple years of eligibility for the list.

This year, we have both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson debuting on the list.   Placing them is very difficult at this stage.  In Adley's case, expectations are very high for a 1:1 pick, and he was a consensus choice there; and, he's had an excellent debut but it's only one season.  In Gunnar's case, he was a far less obvious choice at 2:1, but at the same time, he's barely qualified for the list at 1.0 rWAR, and we have less of a handle on how he will do over a full year.   I gave both of them a lot of room to move up in the next few years, starting Adley at no. 8 and Gunnar at no. 16.   Also new to the list: Jonah Heim, who had a 2.5 rWAR season for the Rangers, debuts at no. 25, and Hunter Harvey, who had a 1.0 rWAR season for the Nats, debuts at no. 35.   Guys who either debuted on the list in 2022 or who moved up several spots are highlighted in bold.   Kevin Gausman (+3), Cedric Mullins (+6) and Christian Walker (+6) all did that.   On the other hand, Dylan Bundy plummeted 9 spots.

Here's the new list.  Who do you disagree with?

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 52.0 rWAR (6.8 in 2021)

2. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.6 rWAR

3. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 23.3 rWAR 

4. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 19.5 rWAR (3.0 in 2022)

5. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.0 rWAR (-0.1 in 2022)

6. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR8.  

7.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 10.4 rWAR (-1.0 in 2022)

8.  Ashley Rutschman, 1:1 pick 2019, 5.2 rWAR (5.2 in 2022)

9. Cedric Mullins, 13:28 pick 2015, 9.2 rWAR (3.8 in 2022)

10.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 9.3 rWAR (0.2 in 2022)

11.  Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 9.6 rWAR (0.7 in 2022)

12.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 9.7 rWAR (2.0 in 2021)

13.  Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 9.3 rWAR (1.3 in 2022)

14.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 8.8 rWAR (5.1 in 2022)

15.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 8.7 rWAR (0.8 in 2022)

16.  Gunnar Henderson, 2:1 pick 2019, 1.0 rWAR (1.0 in 2022)

17. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

18. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

19.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 6.4 rWAR (2.3 in 2022)

20.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.6 rWAR (-0.3 in 2022)

21. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

22.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

23.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

24.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

25.  Jonah Heim, 4:23 pick 2013, 2.5 rWAR (2.5 in 2022)

26.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.2 rWAR

27.  Ryan Mountcastle, 1:36 pick 2015, 3.2 rWAR (1.4 in 2022)

28.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

29.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

30.  Steven Brault, 11:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR (0.2 in 2022)

31.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

32.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

33.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

34.  Tanner Scott, 6:16 pick 2014, 1.1 rWAR (0.0 in 2021)

35.  Hunter Harvey, 1:22 pick 2013, 1.5 rWAR (1.0 in 2022)

Edited October 10, 2022 by Frobby

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here's my 2022 update to this list.    As a reminder, only players who have debuted in the majors and accumulated at least 1.0 rWAR are eligible.   The rankings take into account performance to date, draft position, and potential future performance, but I don't put too much weight on the latter factor, as I prefer to see the player prove it on the field, especially in the first couple years of eligibility for the list.

This year, we have both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson debuting on the list.   Placing them is very difficult at this stage.  In Adley's case, expectations are very high for a 1:1 pick, and he was a consensus choice there; and, he's had an excellent debut but it's only one season.  In Gunnar's case, he was a far less obvious choice at 2:1, but at the same time, he's barely qualified for the list at 1.0 rWAR, and we have less of a handle on how he will do over a full year.   I gave both of them a lot of room to move up in the next few years, starting Adley at no. 8 and Gunnar at no. 16.   Also new to the list: Jonah Heim, who had a 2.5 rWAR season for the Rangers, debuts at no. 25, and Hunter Harvey, who had a 1.0 rWAR season for the Nats, debuts at no. 35.   Guys who either debuted on the list in 2022 or who moved up several spots are highlighted in bold.   Kevin Gausman (+3), Cedric Mullins (+6) and Christian Walker (+6) all did that.   On the other hand, Dylan Bundy plummeted 9 spots.

Here's the new list.  Who do you disagree with?

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 52.0 rWAR (6.8 in 2021)

2. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.6 rWAR

3. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 23.3 rWAR 

4. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 19.5 rWAR (3.0 in 2022)

5. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.0 rWAR (-0.1 in 2022)

6. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR8.  

7.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 10.4 rWAR (-1.0 in 2022)

8.  Ashley Rutschman, 1:1 pick 2019, 5.2 rWAR (5.2 in 2022)

9. Cedric Mullins, 13:28 pick 2015, 9.2 rWAR (3.8 in 2022)

10.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 9.3 rWAR (0.2 in 2022)

11.  Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 9.6 rWAR (0.7 in 2022)

12.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 9.7 rWAR (2.0 in 2021)

13.  Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 9.3 rWAR (1.3 in 2022)

14.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 8.8 rWAR (5.1 in 2022)

15.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 8.7 rWAR (0.8 in 2022)

16.  Gunnar Henderson, 2:1 pick 2019, 1.0 rWAR (1.0 in 2022)

17. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

18. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

19.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 6.4 rWAR (2.3 in 2022)

20.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.6 rWAR (-0.3 in 2022)

21. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

22.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

23.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

24.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

25.  Jonah Heim, 4:23 pick 2013, 2.5 rWAR (2.5 in 2022)

26.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.2 rWAR

27.  Ryan Mountcastle, 1:36 pick 2015, 3.2 rWAR (1.4 in 2022)

28.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

29.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

30.  Steven Brault, 11:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR (0.2 in 2022)

31.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

32.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

33.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

34.  Tanner Scott, 6:16 pick 2014, 1.1 rWAR (0.0 in 2021)

35.  Hunter Harvey, 1:22 pick 2013, 1.5 rWAR (1.0 in 2022)

I hope that in about 5 years, this list will be dominated by players drafted and developed by Elias.  The original post back in 2016 was really sad as an O's fan.  I could see Adley being #2 in 5 years, but I assume Manny will still be #1. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Christian Walker is a shocker.  I never saw that guy having a career.  It's amazing how good other team's were at picking out what players would have successful MLB career, or previous O's front offices had no clue what they were doing. 

Should Eduardo Rodriguez be on this list?

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Christian Walker is a shocker.  I never saw that guy having a career.  It's amazing how good other team's were at picking out what players would have successful MLB career, or previous O's front offices had no clue what they were doing. 

Should Eduardo Rodriguez be on this list?

He wasn’t drafted.   He was an international signee.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Frobby

[Aristotelian]

There must be some way of quantifying value relative to pick. You could do a conversion using an estimate of the dollar amount of picks to the equivalent value in WAR. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/

Using $8.5M/WAR and $34.8M for 1:4, that would mean Matusz should start with a handicape of -4.09 WAR, making his net value -1.9 WAR.

Drake in Round 43 would have neglible pick value so he should be pretty clearly ahead of Matusz. I would guess Matusz should be one of the lowest on the list. Harvey should almost certainly be ahead of Matusz due to his future potential. 

According to that Fangraphs analysis, once you get past the second round the pick handicap is less than .5 WAR, so Hays should be ahead of Hernandez even though Hernandez was picked 3 rounds later. 

Adley is starting with a 5 WAR handicap, but it's not hard to project him beating out Arrieta's 23 WAR with no handicap. 

Wieters and Britton indeed look very close when you apply Wieters' discount, but I'd say Mullins is a strong bet to surpass them.

Akin is an interesting case. Fangraphs has him with 1.5 WAR but rWAR has him just missing the cut at 0.8. 

[Frobby]

Thanks, @Aristotelian.   My rankings are pretty subjective.  The way you propose makes more sense, though of course, to the extent that projected future value is taken into account, that’s necessarily subjective.   

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

He wasn’t drafted.   He was an international signee.

If you really want to make O's fans cry, make an international O's team since 2000. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If you really want to make O's fans cry, make an international O's team since 2000. 

Schoop, Rodriguez, Bautista.   After that, I’ve got nothing but players signed by other teams who eventually became Orioles.  Even Bautista was signed by another team first.  

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Schoop, Rodriguez, Bautista.   After that, I’ve got nothing but players signed by other teams who eventually became Orioles.  Even Bautista was signed by another team first.  

Would Miguel Gonzalez and Chen count.  If you count all international players who weren't drafted you might be able to make a team, but it would be laughably bad. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Would Miguel Gonzalez and Chen count.  If you count all international players who weren't drafted you might be able to make a team, but it would be laughably bad. 

I’m not sure what Gonzalez’s circumstances were. He was born in Mexico, grew up in California, wasn’t drafted, signed as an amateur free agent at age 21.   But he could have been drafted, I believe.  He just wasn’t.  

There’s Chen, Uehara, Ponson, and I’m sure a few others.  
 

[OriolesMagic83]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure what Gonzalez’s circumstances were. He was born in Mexico, grew up in California, wasn’t drafted, signed as an amateur free agent at age 21.   But he could have been drafted, I believe.  He just wasn’t.  

There’s Chen, Uehara, Ponson, and I’m sure a few others.  
 

Might be able to come up with a pitching staff, but some of the position player spots are barren.  Luis Matos? 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Might be able to come up with a pitching staff, but some of the position player spots are barren.  Luis Matos? 

Puerto Rican, but drafted.  So it depends what list you are compiling.