Getting rid of Chris Davis

[Roll Tide]

My problem is the Davis' contract is restricting them from doing the right thing with Machado.  You have 5 more painful years of his contract. That essentially means you'd have 50 million wrapped up in two players for the next 4-5 years. For a mod market team that is brutal.

Maybe not impossible if the system has turned the corner and you stop giving away good MLB pitchers for junk.

[OFFNY]

On 10/14/2017 at 2:49 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

Although I was in favor of the Davis contract when it was signed prior to the 2016 season, I am dismayed at being stuck with both he and Trumbo's contracts ........ but for different reasons.

 

I'm not thrilled about Trumbo's contract, but monetarily, his contract really is not that big of a deal ........ $13 Million per year over the next 2 years is not exactly chump-change for a mid-market team like the Orioles, but it is not exactly a back-breaker, either. Him being (primarily) a DH that cannot play adequate defense at any position is/was almost as big of a handicap as was his woefully sub-par offensive season was in 2017.

Davis, on the other hand, CAN play very solid defense at his primary position (1st Base) ........ and that was one of the reasons why I was in favor of the Orioles retaining him with the long-term contract that they gave him when they did. However, unlike Trumbo's mildly money-draining contract, Davis' contract IS a very big deal monetarily for a mid-market team like the Orioles.

 

Two contracts, both disappointing, and for different reasons.

If I had a chance to absolve/erase either of the contracts, it would be Davis's ........ specifically because of the money and the longevity of it ........ even though he is a considerably more complete player than is Trumbo overall. 

 

Strictly as a player, Davis helps the team more than Trumbo does.

Strictly on a monetary level, Davis's contract hurts the team more than does Trumbo's contract does.

 

o

 

 

3 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

 

What were the other reasons? The comps for hitters of his type (TTOH) were there for everyone to see and there wasn’t one that showed the contract being offered was justified.

You don’t hand out a seven year deal based on a guy playing a solid 1B.

 

o

 

Davis had outstanding offensive seasons in 2 out of the 3 seasons immediately prior to the signing of the contract (2013 and 2015.) with OPS's of slightly over 1.000 in one of them, and .923 in the other.

I don't see anything unusual about expecting him to be able to continue on that path (or at least in the neighborhood of that path) with the bad 2014 season being a bump in the road in between.

 

That said, I concede that the 7 years was excessive (even without the hindsight of Davis' past 2 seasons in 2016 and 2017), and perhaps I let my anxiety about the need to keep the core of the team together influence my feelings on the matter at that time.

 

o

[Il BuonO]

2 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

Davis had outstanding offensive seasons in 2 out of the 3 seasons immediately prior to the signing of the contract (2013 and 2015.) with OPS's of slightly over 1.000 in one of them, and .923 in the other.

I don't see anything unusual about expecting him to be able to continue on that path (or at least in the neighborhood of that path) with the bad 2014 season being a bump in the road in between.

That said, I concede that the 7 years was excessive, and perhaps I let my anxiety about the need to keep the core of the team together influence my feelings on the matter at that time.

o

Past performance is not always a predictor of the future. And as I previously stated, Davis was comparable to many players who also didn't continue their brief paths of success.

[OFFNY]

13 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

Davis had outstanding offensive seasons in 2 out of the 3 seasons immediately prior to the signing of the contract (2013 and 2015.) with OPS's of slightly over 1.000 in one of them, and .923 in the other.

I don't see anything unusual about expecting him to be able to continue on that path (or at least in the neighborhood of that path) with the bad 2014 season being a bump in the road in between.

 

That said, I concede that the 7 years was excessive (even without the hindsight of Davis' past 2 seasons in 2016 and 2017), and perhaps I let my anxiety about the need to keep the core of the team together influence my feelings on the matter at that time.

o

 

 

7 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

 

Past performance is not always a predictor of the future. And as I previously stated, Davis was comparable to many players who also didn't continue their brief paths of success.

 

o

 

It's not always a predictor of the future, but recent past performances (particularly in which 2 out of the 3 most recent seasons were excellent, including the most recent one) for someone of Davis' age at the time (29) are likely an indicator of the near future at least as much as it is not ........ and if I am wrong about that presumption, then I stand corrected.

 

o

[NCRaven]

In his age thirty plus years, you would expect a decline.  But, I am shocked that Davis has completely collapsed in the first two years of this contract.  I really don't know what to expect, but hope for some kind of bounce for Davis.

With Trumbo, I'd love a bounce that would allow us to trade him in July '18.  But, if he's doing well, and the team is doing well, they won't trade him if they're still in contention, even though we have several players that could fill his role, primarily, Mancini once Hays and Acuna are established in the outfield (okay, now you know part of my Machado dream trade with Atlanta!).

[spiritof66]

I bring no special aptitude for assessing this, but I'm not sure anyone else here does, either . . . So here goes.

It's common for a player's performance to drop off at Davis' age (31), and sometimes that drop is sudden and steep. That may be all we're talking about here,. If it is, I still think Davis should be more productive for a couple of years than he was in 2017, but that may be wrong. His offense could stay at at the low level set by this season or might decline further -- at some point getting him benched or released. Who knows?

But that's not what I saw, or think I saw, in Chris Davis this year. He didn't look  slower (like Adam in his decline), or less able to drive the ball (like J J in his decline). When that happens to power hitters, they sometimes find ways to compensate that alter their offensive contributions and make them look different at the plate. I don't think I saw that, either. Much of the time, Davis just looked like a different athlete from the guy we've seen the past few years. I think -- and my opinion is based on nothing except what I've seen -- that there's been some physiological or psychological change in Davis over the past year other than the normal aging process. I'm sure there are ways to look into that, and if I were Davis or the Orioles I'd be exploring that. Whether there's a chance of finding a problem that can be treated or rectified is another story. 

[weams]

On 10/12/2017 at 10:47 AM, Redskins Rick2 said:

It so easy to sit back and play fantasy GM, and lets trade this guy or this guy.

Just like at your school dance, if you can't find anybody to dance with, you are left on your own.

 

Did you ever send me a PM so I can combine your accounts?  Tell me what password you want and I will do it. 

[foxfield]

20 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I bring no special aptitude for assessing this, but I'm not sure anyone else here does, either . . . So here goes.

It's common for a player's performance to drop off at Davis' age (31), and sometimes that drop is sudden and steep. That may be all we're talking about here,. If it is, I still think Davis should be more productive for a couple of years than he was in 2017, but that may be wrong. His offense could stay at at the low level set by this season or might decline further -- at some point getting him benched or released. Who knows?

But that's not what I saw, or think I saw, in Chris Davis this year. He didn't look  slower (like Adam in his decline), or less able to drive the ball (like J J in his decline). When that happens to power hitters, they sometimes find ways to compensate that alter their offensive contributions and make them look different at the plate. I don't think I saw that, either. Much of the time, Davis just looked like a different athlete from the guy we've seen the past few years. I think -- and my opinion is based on nothing except what I've seen -- that there's been some physiological or psychological change in Davis over the past year other than the normal aging process. I'm sure there are ways to look into that, and if I were Davis or the Orioles I'd be exploring that. Whether there's a chance of finding a problem that can be treated or rectified is another story. 

I think this is pretty spot on.  One thing I would add is this...

The Orioles really have a log jam of similar players.  The contracts of Davis and Trumbo would both be more palatable if one were a pitcher or a centerfielder or a catcher.  Davis is the better first baseman and the better hitter if they were at peak level.  Having both of them underperform yet continue to occupy spots in the lineup night out is a big deal.  One of them or both of them could have a huge bounce back year.  The likelihood however is that they have both begun their decline and that neither of them will ever lead the league in HR again.  

Either one could be an asset on a contending team.  But having two aging 1b/DH types magnify the risks of both exponentially.  I just do not see how the Orioles can keep both of them and I say that whether they plan to contend next year or if they plan to rebuild over the winter.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think this is pretty spot on.  One thing I would add is this...

The Orioles really have a log jam of similar players.  The contracts of Davis and Trumbo would both be more palatable if one were a pitcher or a centerfielder or a catcher.  Davis is the better first baseman and the better hitter if they were at peak level.  Having both of them underperform yet continue to occupy spots in the lineup night out is a big deal.  One of them or both of them could have a huge bounce back year.  The likelihood however is that they have both begun their decline and that neither of them will ever lead the league in HR again.  

Either one could be an asset on a contending team.  But having two aging 1b/DH types magnify the risks of both exponentially.  I just do not see how the Orioles can keep both of them and I say that whether they plan to contend next year or if they plan to rebuild over the winter.

Well when you have a manager that harps on defense and a GM that knows the importance of OBP it isn't surprising that you end up with a glut of one dimensional sluggers best suited to DH.

[foxfield]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Well when you have a manager that harps on defense and a GM that knows the importance of OBP it isn't surprising that you end up with a glut of one dimensional sluggers best suited to DH.

The sarcasm is rich in this one....  

 

 

[Redskins Rick]

22 hours ago, weams said:

Did you ever send me a PM so I can combine your accounts?  Tell me what password you want and I will do it. 

Sorry was laid up sick as a dog this weekend, did as little as possible.